WIMBLEDON 2011: Women's Final Preview

Maria Sharapova RUS (5) vs. Petra Kvitova CZE (8). 

This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals.

Here are my predictions for the women's final at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011.

For the first time since 2006 there will not be a Williams playing the final women's match at Wimbledon. Instead we have the now-veteran Maria Sharapova, at 24, seeking her 2nd Wimbledon crown and 4th major title overall. After she broke through as a teenage phenom to win Wimbledon in 2004 by blasting Serena Williams off the court in straight sets many hailed the blonde, blue-eyed Russian as the new Ice Princess of Tennis and her face quickly became the most photographed countenance in all of women's sports, leading to untold riches off the court in the endorsement jackpot. However, since those heady days, Sharapova has only won 3 major titles, like clock work, every even year: 2004 Wimbledon, 2006 U.S. Open and 2008 Australian Open. This put her in the company of past champions like Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati and Kim Clijsters and not legends of the game like Martina Navratilova, Chris Evert or Serena Williams. Sharapova's metronomic Grand Slam winning pattern was interrupted by an October 2008 shoulder surgery after which she suffered the indignities of failing to get past the Round of 8 in any major for two full calendar years due to intermittent serving difficulties.

However, now it's 2011 and  for the last month or so Sharapova has gotten back to doing what she does best: hitting the bejeezus out of the little yellow ball into the corners of the court followed by an ear-shattering "grunt." She came very close to completing the career slam in Paris but was outlasted by a steadier player, Li Na who went on to win the title.  

Her opponent is a 21-year-old first-time finalist from the Czech Republic, the same age the great Martina Navratilova was when she won her first of 9 Wimbledon singles titles. Whether Petra Kvitova will go on to as storied  a career as her fellow countrywoman is something we can not know now, but the two have a lot of similarities in their games. They both are big-serving lefties, with hard-hitting ground strokes on both wings and a willingness to approach the net. Martina was the consummate serve and volleyer, the dominant strategy of her era, while Kvitova is the epitome of the modern game, able to blast winners from any position in the court.

Sharapova has not dropped a set on her way to the final and hasn't had to play anyone very troublesome along the way, except for wild card Sabine Lisicki. The German had been playing some of the best grass court tennis of the year, dispatching Marion Bartoli (who had dismissed 2-time defending champion Serena Williams) and Li Na in two very exciting matches. The mouthwatering "Mean Girls" quarterfinal with Sharapova and "World #1" Caroline Wozniacki never materialized because Pocket Rocket Dominika Cibulkova dismissed the new It girl in the 4th round and was rewarded by being demolished by Sharapova in the quarterfinals. Hometown favorite Laura Robson was able to ride the crowd's enthusiasm to a first-set tiebreaker in the second round but Sharapova hasn't even faced a set point for the entire tournament.

Kvitova, on the other hand, has had to play 3 tough sets to go through World #5 Victoria Azarenka and had another tight 3-set match with Tsevetana Pironkova, the woman who dismissed Venus Williams, the best female grass-court player of her generation from Wimbledon, in two consecutive years by the same exact score!

Head-to-head the two have played only once with Sharapova winning easily (on clay before Kvitova made her breakthrough by reaching the semifinals of Wimbledon last year). The intangibles definitely favor Sharapova; she has won before, this is her 5th major final, it is Kvitova's first. However, if you look at their style of play you see that Sharapova has had 11 more double faults than aces (32 to 21) while Kvitova has 22 more aces than double faults (35 to 13). Summary: Kvitova's serve is a weapon, while Sharapova's is a liability.  Generally, on grass, the person with the better serve wins, unless the other person has better movement and better returning. Sharapova does have a better return than Kvitova: she will go for a direct winner on both first and second serves. Is Sharapova a better mover than Kvitova? Doubtful, though quite honestly neither of them are superb in this category. All-in-all, Kvitova has the game to win the title, and I believe she will.

MadProfessah's PREDICTION: Kvitova.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. I predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. Last year I predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly.

Maria Sharapova RUS (5) vs Sabine Lisicki GER . Sharapova appears to be returning to the form that has led her to win 3 major tournaments (2008 Australian Open, 2006 US Open and 2004 Wimbledon) so far after surgery in 2009 really deteriorated her game. Lisicki is a wild card has put on two amazing performances on Wimbledon Centre Court this year, dismissing 2011 French Open champion Li Na in the 3rd round and eliminating 2007 Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli in the quarterfinals. With both Williams sisters gone from the tournament (this was Serena's half) this is the most wide open Wimbledon in over a decade. If  you start to match up the two player's games Lisicki has the better serve, while Sharapova has the better return.

Sharapova has the better second serve, or at least she goes for more, but this also makes it less reliable. Sharapova has 19 aces but also 19 double faults over 5 matches so far. Lisicki has 44 aces and only 13 double faults. Sharapova has a total of 126 winners while Liscki has 157, including an incredible 52 winners in the round before in her 3-set win over Bartoli. Lisicki is probably the better mover but Sharapova is faster than she appears and can do more with the ball when she gets there. Analyzing their groundstrokes you have to give a big advantage to Sharapova, especially on the backhand side, with the forehand side being a bit closer. On grass you have to give the edge to the better server (Lisicki) but all the intangibles (been in this position before, mental toughness) go to Sharapova.I would be delighted if Lisicki wins, but I think it's more likely she will falter than Sharapova will. I was very surprised that Lisicki had to play a 3rd set against Bartoli, after having 3 match points in the second set, but she shook that off to win 6-1. If she gives that opportunity to Sharapova to come back, the Russian will reach her 2nd Wimbledon final. PREDICTION: Who I think will win: Sharapova, Who I want to win: Lisicki.

Victoria Azarenka BLR (4) vs. Petra Kvitova CZE (8). This should be the more interesting match of the two because the higher ranked player is the one with the less experience being in the semifinals of Wimbledon. However, I'm sure in her own mind Azarenka feels like she should have won a major already. Azarenka is like a young Novak Djokovic in that early in his career the Serbian retired in a number of important matches and Azarenka is (in)famous for her withdrawals from multiple matches, especially this year.

They are both incredibly talented players and you totally expect them to win multiple majors. Djokovic has met (and possibly even exceeded) expectations but Azarenka is still waiting for her big breakthrough. If you look at each of the semifinalists' records to this point Azarenka has only had 10 aces to 9 double faults in 5 rounds. Kvitova has had 26 aces to 11 double faults. Interestingly, when you match up their games you see that Kvitova has the better serve and the better ground strokes. Azarenka is by far the better mover and I think the intangibles are pretty even. Kvitova disappointed me when she lost a 2nd set tie-break to Tsevetana "Venus-killer" Pironkova with some bad misses on attempted winners. Then again, like Lisicki, she won the deciding set pretty easily. This second match should be closer than the first semifinal with Kvitova, another left-handed female player born in Czechoslovakia like the great Martina Navratiilova, reaching her first (but probably not her last) Wimbledon final. PREDICTION: Who I think will win: Kvitova, Who I want to win: Kvitova.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Petra Kvitova                                © AELTC/J.Buckle

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) Dominika Cibulkova SVK (24) vs Maria Sharapova RUS (5). For the first time since 2006 Maria Sharapova is in a Wimbledon quarterfinal when there is no possibility of a facing a Williams sister in order to win the title. Her immediate challenge is to defeat a woman who is almost a full foot shorter but who has beaten her the one time they played in a major. Cibulkova embarrassed Sharapova 6-0 6-2 in the quarterfinals of the 2009 French Open. Amazingly, all four of their career meetings have been on clay, and  the two are locked at 2-all, with the shorter player having won the last 2 matches, including one this year. However, Sharapova is much more comfortable on grass than clay. Cibulkova is also coming off one of the best wins of her career by basically blasting the World #1 Caroline Wozniacki off the court with nearly 20 forehand winners in a 1-6 7-6(5) 7-5 victory. The match-up on paper looks like a clear win for Sharapova, but Cibulkova has beaten her before and believes in her game. The question will be if Sharapova believes in her game, especially her (second) serve. PREDICTION: Sharapova in 3 sets.

Sabine Lisicki GER  vs. Serena Williams USA (7) Marion Bartoli FRA (9). Sabine Lisicki had one of the most outstanding performances by a female tennis player this year when she saved 2 match points against #3 seed Li Na (the most successful player at the Grand Slam tournaments this year) to win 3-6 6-4 8-6 in the second round. Lisicki has yet to lose a match on grass this year, having won in Birmingham right before Wimbledon, but she had to write the All-England Lawn Tennis Club in order to get a wildcard to enter the tournament, which was granted. 2007 Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli  put on an incredible performance in the 4th round of Wimbledon to dismiss the 2-time defending champion Serena Williams by out-hitting and out-serving the 13-time major champion in two sets 6-3 7-6(6). Bartoli had more aces (10 to 8) than Serena and in most of the rallies was hitting the ball harder and more aggressively. Serena did not play her best, true, but Bartoli won the match more than Serena lost it. Head-to-head Lisicki leads Bartoli 2-1 including a win over the Frenchwoman this year but Bartoli's lone win was on grass at Wimbledon in 2008. Bartoli had 11 aces in the first 3 rounds and 10 in the fourth. I seriously doubt she can play as well two rounds in a row. The German wild-card is a real contender to win the entire tournament. PREDICTION: Lisicki in 2 sets.

Tamira Paszek AUT  vs. Victoria Azarenka BLR (4). The highest remaining seed is the hard-hitting (and ear-splitting) Belarussian who has reached her 5th career grand Slam quarterfinal at this year's Wimbledon but who has never reached a major semifinal. I expect that streak to end on Tuesday. Her opponent, Paszek had an impressive win over 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavone in the 3rd round 3-6 6-4 11-9 after nearly four hours of play. Paszek had been long touted as a player to watch about 3 or 4 years ago but injuries got in the way and the 20-year-old is the furthest she has reached in a major since her breakthrough debut year in 2007. Azarenka has the power and mentality to dismiss most players outside of the Top 10. Paszek is not an exception.PREDICTION: Azarenka in 2 sets. 

Petra Kvitova CZE (8) vs. Venus Williams USA (23) Tsvetana Pironkova BUL (32). Pironkova must be Bulgarian for "kryptonite" because there is no other explanation for why the greatest women's grass court player of her generation would lose in two consecutive years to the same player, by the same exact score (6-2 6-3)! Last year Pironkova's stunning win was one round later and she followed it by losing a hideous match against Vera Zvonareva in the semifinals. The player in the other semifinal last year was Petra Kvitova who lost a high-quality affair to eventual champion Serena Williams. This year, Pironkova has to face the hard-hitting, fearless lefty who has the game to defeat anyone on the tour but didn't quite believe in herself enough. This year she has the belief that she can do it, and she can. PREDICTION: Kvitova in 2 sets.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Disaster! Serena and Venus Lose!

OMG! Venus and Serena William, who have won 9 of the last 11 Wimbledon singles titles between them, both lost in their fourth round matches on Monday June 27th ( a day that will live in infamy).

Venus lost 6-2 6-3 to Tsevetana Pironkova, the Bulgarian player who beat her in the 2010 Wimbledon quarterfinals (by the same exact score) and in the 2006 Australian Open 1st round.

Serena lost to 2007 Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli 6-3 7-6(6).

There are no words. Both played pretty horrendously. Clearly "Pironkova" is Kryptonite in Bulgarian because there is really no explanation for why Venus plays so horrendously against her.

Oh, in other "upset news" Dominque Cibulkova eliminated the #1 player in the world, Caroline Wozniacki.

The only player who has still won a major on the women's side is Maria Sharapova, who won the 2004 Wimbledon title over Serena.

WIMBLEDON 2011:Williamses, Top 4 Men, Delpo In To R16

Novak Djokovic won a tension-filled 3rd round
4-set match against Marcos Baghdatis

Wimbledon is the only major which does not generally have play on the "middle" Sunday. So, after Saturday's play on Day 6, here is an update.

The Top 4 players in the world, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are all through to the round of 16 at the 2011 Wimbledon Championships. World #5 Robin Soderling  and World #8 Andy Roddick have been upset. #6 seed Tomas Berdych and #7 seed David Ferrer are still in the tournament, as is 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro.


World #1 Caroline Wozniacki, #4 seed Victoria Azarenka, #5 Maria Sharapova, #7 Serena Williams, #8 Petra Kvitova and #9 Marion Bartoli are all in the round of 16. 2010 Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva and 2011 French Open finalist Francesca Schiavone both lost on Day 6.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Venus Survives 3-Hour Scare

Michael Regan/Getty 

30-year-old Venus Williams survived a stiff challenge from the crafty 40-year-old Kimiko Date-Krumm in her second round match, coming back from a 1-5 deficit in the first round to win 6-7(6) 6-3 8-6 in a nearly 3 hour slugfest with the diminutive Japanese veteran displaying amazing finesse at the net and surprising power and steadiness from the baseline. Venus saved 7 set points in the first set but still lost it after playing a very bad tie break. She won the second set by easily breaking Date-Krumm's serve and holding hers. In the third set, Venus got an early break to go up 2-0 but then relinquished the lead and the two held serve for 9 consecutive service games until Venus was able to finally break and win the match.

Overall, I think this was a very good match for Venus to get through. She was able to get into her grass court flow and her serve started clicking in the middle of the second set. Although she only converted 7 of 20 breakpoints, I'm confident she will do better in another tough match against Spanish lefty serve and volleyer Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez whose claim to fame is stealing a point against Venus' sister Serena Williams at Wimbledon in 2009.

Other winners on Day 3 were Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Andy Roddick, Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils and Mardy Fish. On the women's side, Vera Zzonareva, Victoria Azarenka, Petra Kvitova, Daniela Hantuchova and Andrea Petkovic are all through to the 3rd round.

WIMBLEDON 2011: The Odds Of Winning

The oddsmakers have Roger Federer and Serena Williams as the favorites to win this year's Singles Championships at Wimbledon, which started today.

Hat/tip to Busted Racquet.

Zvonareva Outlasts Serena At Eastbourne In 3-hour Slugfest

2010 Wimbledon champion Serena Williams lost in her second match off after nearly a year off to World #3 and 2010 Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva in a tough 3 hour, 14 minute match 3-6 7-6(5) 7-5 at the Aegon International at Eastbourne. Serena did well, refusing to concede despite being down 2-5 in the 3rd set and pulling even to 5-all only to lose the last two games of the set and the match.Venus Williams went through to the Eastbourne quarterfinals with a 6-3 6-2 win over Ana Ivanovic who has been playing some good grass court tennis recently.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Seeds Released (Serena #7, Clijsters Out)

Wimbledon starts on Monday, so the seedings have been released today, with the draw happening on Friday. The grass-court tournament is the only major to often drastically differ from the world rankings, and they have done so again.

Here are the men's singles seeds:

Gentlemen's Singles

1 Rafael NADAL (ESP) [1]
2 Novak DJOKOVIC (SRB) [2]
3 Roger FEDERER (SUI) [3]
4 Andy MURRAY (GBR) [4]
5 Robin SODERLING (SWE) [5]
6 Tomas BERDYCH (CZE) [6]
7 David FERRER (ESP) [7]
8 Andy RODDICK (USA) [8]
9 Gael MONFILS (FRA) [9]
10 Mardy FISH (USA) [10]
11 Jurgen MELZER (AUT) [11]
12 Jo-Wilfried TSONGA (FRA) [12]
13 Viktor TROICKI (SRB) [13]
14 Stanislas WAWRINKA (SUI) [14]
15 Gilles SIMON (FRA) [15]
16 Nicolas ALMAGRO (ESP) [16]
17 Richard GASQUET (FRA) [17]
18 Mikhail YOUZHNY (RUS) [18]
19 Michael LLODRA (FRA) [19]
20 Florian MAYER (GER) [20]
21 Fernando VERDASCO (ESP) [21]
22 Alexandr DOLGOPOLOV (UKR) [22]
23 Janko TIPSAREVIC (SRB) [23]
24 Juan Martin DEL POTRO (ARG) [24]
25 Juan Ignacio CHELA (ARG) [25]
26 Guillermo GARCIA-LOPEZ (ESP) [26]
27 Marin CILIC (CRO) [27]
28 David NALBANDIAN (ARG) [28]
29 Nikolay DAVYDENKO (RUS) [29]
30 Thomaz BELLUCCI (BRA) [30]
31 Milos RAONIC (CAN) [31]
32 Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP) [32]

The main beneficiaries are Tsonga who moves from ATP #19 ranking to Seed #12 and Llodra who moves from ATP #25 ranking to Seed #19.

The women's singles seeds are even more interesting 

1 Caroline WOZNIACKI (DEN) [1]
2. Vera ZVONAREVA (RUS) [2]

3. Na LI (CHN) [3]
4. Victoria AZARENKA (BLR) [4]
5. Maria SHARAPOVA (RUS) [5]
6. Francesca SCHIAVONE (ITA) [6]
7. Serena WILLIAMS (USA) [7]
8. Petra KVITOVA (CZE) [8]
9. Marion BARTOLI (FRA) [9]
10. Samantha STOSUR (AUS) [10]
11. Andrea PETKOVIC (GER) [11]
12. Svetlana KUZNETSOVA (RUS) [12]
13. Agnieszka RADWANSKA (POL) [13]
14. Anastasia PAVLYUCHENKOVA (RUS) [14]
15. Jelena JANKOVIC (SRB) [15]
16. Julia GOERGES (GER) [16]
17. Kaia KANEPI (EST) [17]
18. Ana IVANOVIC (SRB) [18]
19. Yanina WICKMAYER (BEL) [19]
20. Shuai PENG (CHN) [20]
21. Flavia PENNETTA (ITA) [21]
22. Shahar PEER (ISR) [22]
23. Venus WILLIAMS (USA) [23]
24. Dominika CIBULKOVA (SVK) [24]
25. Daniela HANTUCHOVA (SVK) [25]
26. Maria KIRILENKO (RUS) [26]
27. Jarmila GAJDOSOVA (AUS) [27]
28. Ekaterina MAKAROVA (RUS) [28]
29. Roberta VINCI (ITA) [29]
30. Bethanie MATTEK-SANDS (USA) [30]
31. Lucie SAFAROVA (CZE) [31]
32. Tsvetana PIRONKOVA (BUL) [32]

The shocker is the removal of Kim Clijsters, who withdrew from the tournament with a re-injured ankle this morning. The 2010 defending champion Serena was seeded #8 but moved up to #7, despite her WTA #26 ranking. Venus, who is a 5-time champion was seeded #23 despite her WTA #33 ranking. This is an absolute travesty of a seeding for Venus. One year ago Serena was ranked #1 in the world and Venus was ranked #2 but the two have played only a handful of tournaments combined since then (Serena hasn't played at all).

Venus, Serena Win In Grass Season Debuts

Venus Williams, 5-time Wimbledon champion, played her first grass court match of the year and her first WTA tour match since losing in the 3rd round of the Australian Open Andrea Petkovic on Monday. Venus won 7-5 5-7 6-3 against the World #11 (#8 seed) at the Eastbourne warm-up tournament for Wimbledon, which starts on Monday June 20.

4-time Wimbledon champion Serena Williams played her first tennis match in nearly a year at the same tournament today, beating 2010 Wimbledon semifinalist Tsvetana Pironkova 1-6 6-3 6-4.

Venus and Serena have won a combined 9 Wimbledon singles titles since 2000, playing 5 finals against each other. The graphic above illustrates Venus' amazing performances at Wimbledon since her 1998 debut, 5 titles, 3 finalists and 3 quarterfinals but also two horrendous early round losses in 2004 and 2006.