SHOCK! Nadal Loses 2nd Consecutive Match

World #2 Rafael Nadal lost his second match in a row for the first time since 2009 when he went down 1-6 6-7(5) 6-7(5) against Croatian Ivan Dodig at the Rogers Masters tournament in Quebec. World #3 Roger Federer, who turned 30 years old on Monday August 8, and World #1 Novak Djokovic both won their first matches since Wimbledon easily in straight sets.

Djokovic improved to a stratospheric 49-1 for the year, having won 7 titles including the Australian Open (d. Murray) and Wimbledon (d. Nadal) while Federer is at 40-9 with only one title but also one very important victory over Djokovic (at the French Open). Next up for Federer is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who eliminated him in the Wimbledon quarterfinals this year.

World #4 Andy Murray also lost his first match back, despite winning this title the last 2 years in a row. Still in the tournament are Juan Martin del Potro, Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011.

Last year I predicted 1 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 0 of 2 men's semifinals correctly. This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. 

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). For the second year in a row, Andy Murray's goal to win his country's Grand Slam must go through World #1 Rafael Nadal.

 Head-to-head Nadal leads 11-4 with a 2-0 record on grass (2010 Wimbledon semifinal and 2008 Wimbledon quarterfinal). With Nadal allegedly not at 100 percent fit to play (a claim I am somewhat skeptical of) I think this gives Murray the best chance he has ever had to date to end the long drought of having a male British citizen appear in the Wimbledon final, let alone actually win the bloody thing. The four times Murray has beaten Nadal he has done it on hard courts with very strong serving, combined with first strike tennis using the forehand cross-court and the backhand down-the-line to Nadal's backhand. Murray is an excellent defender and loves to play long grueling points to demonstrate his fitness and mentally exhaust his opponents. This is exactly the wrong game plan against the (almost psychotically) mentally tough Spaniard.

Nadal has lost four consecutive times to Novak Djokovic this year because Djokovic has been getting multiple free points on his improved serve and is ridiculously flexible and strong enough to convert balls hit from defensive positions instantaneously  into offense. Murray can get free points on his serve if he serves well (i.e. in the 130 mph) but he shouldn't even THINK about playing defense. The way to beat Nadal is relatively clear: you have to bash him off of a very fast court (c.f. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's 2008 Australian Open semifinal win, Juan Martin del Potro's 2009 U.S. Open semifinal win, Murray's own 2010 Australian Open quarterfinal win).

Basically you have to be prepared to hit 4 or 5 winners to win a single point and not get frustrated about doing it for two or three hours. Murray has been in 3 career Grand Slam finals so far and has failed to win a set in any of them. For all intents and purposes, this semifinal (just like last year's Wimbledon semifinal) is even more important than a final to Murray's career. So, if past performance is a predictor of future performance, Murray will under-perform his ability and lose in 3 sets to Nadal again. However, I strongly believe that Murray is getting closer and closer to a breakthrough and one indication was his strong showing in the 2011 French Open semifinal against Nadal (which Murray lost in straight sets but he had a LOT of chances, which he was unable to convert). I believe he will take that experience of having opportunities in Paris and the strong crowd support in London to give him a very decent chance to win this match and warm the hearts of a nation. PREDICTION: Nadal in 3 OR Murray in 4 or 5 sets.

Roger Federer SUI (3) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2).

This is also a match which is "bigger" than a Grand Slam final, to one of the competitors (Djokovic), at least. If the Serb wins, he will be ranked World #1 for the first time in his career. If the Frenchman wins he would be the first of his countrymen to be in the Wimbledon final in the Open era. There are far fewer men (24) who have been ranked World #1 at some point since the rankings began in 1973 than have won a major final in that time period (almost 60).  It just so happens that this match-up is a reprise of the 2008 Australian Open final, won by Djokovic, but since that first encounter Tsonga has won 5 of 6 matches the two have played, including a stunning 5-set win in the 2010 Australian Open quarterfinals. The 2008 Australian Open final is an instructive match to analyze in understanding the dynamics between the two players because then, like now, Tsonga is coming off the biggest win of his career (in 2008 a surprisingly vicious beat down of Nadal in the Australian Open semifinal, in 2011 a stunning dismissal of Roger Federer in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon).

Then, Tsonga didn't start the match playing his best tennis until the second set and Djokovic exploited the lead to run away with the match and the title. However, it must be noted that what Tsonga achieved Roger Federer had not happened in 178 of the Swiss Great's 5-set Grand Slam matches--he lost the first two sets and then won the match (rather comfortably) with an early service break in each subsequent set and denying his opponent even a sniff at breaking his own.

Djokvic is a much better service returner than Federer so it's doubtful that strategy will work again but Tsonga has so much talent there are others that could work (serve and volley as much as possible, deny pace to Djokovic and then suddenly blast the ball for a winner) and most of all, Tsonga believes he can win. Djokovic has played 47 matches so far in 2011 and won 46 of them. This is an astonishing feat. Lately, his opponents have gotten closer and the new unbeatable Djokovic has shown some of the familiar tics of the old, retiring Djokovic, but I still believe that somehow, Nole will find a way to fulfill his destiny and win the match and reach the pinnacle of men's tennis.  PREDICTION: Djokovic.  

WIMBLEDON 2011:Williamses, Top 4 Men, Delpo In To R16

Novak Djokovic won a tension-filled 3rd round
4-set match against Marcos Baghdatis

Wimbledon is the only major which does not generally have play on the "middle" Sunday. So, after Saturday's play on Day 6, here is an update.

The Top 4 players in the world, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are all through to the round of 16 at the 2011 Wimbledon Championships. World #5 Robin Soderling  and World #8 Andy Roddick have been upset. #6 seed Tomas Berdych and #7 seed David Ferrer are still in the tournament, as is 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro.


World #1 Caroline Wozniacki, #4 seed Victoria Azarenka, #5 Maria Sharapova, #7 Serena Williams, #8 Petra Kvitova and #9 Marion Bartoli are all in the round of 16. 2010 Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva and 2011 French Open finalist Francesca Schiavone both lost on Day 6.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Woz, Stosur Upset! Raja, Gael, Gasquet In R16

Daniela Hantuchova celebrates her defeat of World #1 Caroline Wozniacki at the 2011 French Open

For the first time since 1971 in the era of Open tennis, the two top seeds on the women side have been eliminated in a major tournament before the 4th round. World #1 Caroline Wozniacki followed World #2 Kim Clijsters exit yesterday by being swept off the court 6-1 6-3 by hard-hitting, mentally fragile Daniela Hantuchova. Wozniacki has been #1 despite being in only one major final (which she lost to Clijsters). Hantuchova will face 2009 French Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova for a quarterfinal berth. Another stunning upset on the women's side was the disappearance of 2010 French Open finalist Samantha Stosur who got outplayed by Gisela Dulko 6-4 1-6 6-3. Vera Zvonareva, Jelea Jankovic and defending champion Francesca Schiavone all advanced to the round of 16.

On the men's side the marquee match of the tournament between the only players besides Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to have won a major title in the last 5 years was scheduled last on for the day and thus had to be stopped completely even with Novak Djokovic winning the first set 6-3 and Juan Martín del Potro returning the favor. They will play a best of 3-sets tomorrow after a women's match. Djokovic has a 39-match winning streak on the line against someone who everyone acknowledges is a Top 5-level player even though he is currently seeded #25. Frenchmen Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils are in the final 16 at their hometown tournament but unfortunately their third musketeer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was unable to join them despite winning the first two sets against Stanislas Wawrinka, who will play Federer in the fourth round. Monfils will face David Ferrer who has not dropped a set all tournament for a potential quarterfinal berth against Federer. Gasquet has the unenviable task of playing the winner of the Del Potro-Djokovic encounter.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Top Seeds Proceed Thru Draw

Getty

The highlight of the first round at the 2011 French Open was 5-time defending champion and World #1 Rafael Nadal being stretched to 5 sets by Marathon Man John Isner, 6-4 6-7(2) 6-7(2)  6-2 6-4. Other than that (slight) excitement, the seeds have basically come through the early round unscathed.

On the men's side Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, David Ferrer are all through to Round 3. Tomas Berdych and Nicolas Almagro are the only seeds from the Top 16 to have lost in the first round. Djokovic's streak is now up to 39 matches for the year, although he will play 2009 US Open champion Juan Martín del Potro in the 3rd round.

On the women's side none of the Top 17(!) seeds lost in the first round. Caroline Wozniacki, Vera Zvonareva, 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavione, Samantha Stosur, Jelena Jankovic, Marion Bartoli and 2009 French Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova have all made it to the third round. 2008 French Open champion Ana Ivanovic lost in the first round, completing a "grand slam" of first round losses at the majors. An interesting 3rd round match should be Wozniacki versus Daniela Hantuchova.

Celebrity Friday: Mardy Fish, Highest Ranked American Player

Mardy Fish, Andy Roddick's childhood friend, has overtaken his buddy as the highest ranked American male player on the ATP Tour by reaching the semifinals of the Sony Ericsson Open, defeating David Ferrer 7-5 6-2. Fish's defeat of Ferrer followed a breath-taking 7-5 7-6(5) win over 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro in the 4th round.

Fish could meet Novak Djokovic if the Serbian can extend his winning streak to 23 games for 2011 by defeating Kevin Anderson. In the other half of the draw, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal could meet for the first time on American soil in over 4 years, if both win matches against Gilles Simon and Tomas Berdych, respectively.

Djokovic Outpaces Federer, Reaches World #2 (Again)

Novak Djokovic extended his 2011 match winning streak to 17-0 by defeating Roger Federer 6-3 3-6 6-2 in the semifinals of the Indian Wells ATM Masters Series 1000 tournament. Federer's 2011 record is now 18-3, with all three losses coming at the hands of the new World #2 Serbian. The two were playing for the right to face World #1 Rafael Nadal in the final; the Spaniard defeated Juan Martin del Potro 6-4 6-4 despite facing 0-3 and 1-4 deficits in the first set.

The match between Federer and Djokovic highlighted the improved serving of Djokovic as well as the advantage the Serb's two-handed backhand is over the Swiss's beautiful but less powerful one-handed backhand. At this point in his career, Federer goes through bad patches where his preternatural feel for the tennis ball on his strings seems to lose him entirely and he has difficulty keeping the ball in the court. In the third set, after cleaning up his game to win the second (his first set won in thelast three matches with Djokovic), Federer was broken early and was down 0-2 when he broke back (on a Djokovic double fault) to reach 2-2. Then, inexplicably serving at 40-15 Federer was unable to win another point and donated the service game on a double fault. The 16-time major champion never came close to winning another game after that. It should be interesting what Federer does to tinker with his game in order to react to the new reality of his rivalry with Djokovic. There's a huge difference between Federer being ranked World #2 and World #3 because it means he could face his nemesis Nadal in semifinals of major tournaments, instead of being separated by the entire field in Grand Slam draws.

The final match-up between Djokovic and Nadal should be a good one; I like the Serb's chances to win his 18th match of the year and third tournament (2011 Australian Open over Andy Murray and 2011 Dubai Duty Free Open over Federer) in 2011.

Interestingly, Federer teamed up with his compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Nadal and Marc Lopez in the doubles semifinal but then lost the doubles final 6-4 6-7(5) 10-8 to Xavier Malisse and Andrew Dologopolov. Not a good weekend for the Swiss!

Raonic, 20, Wins 1st ATP Title in San Jose

Canadian Milos Raonic defeated Spaniard Fernando Verdasco in
 the finals of the SAP Open in San Jose, CA to win his 1st ATP title

20-year-old Milos Raonic, the unseeded, 6'5" 200-pound Canadian player who reached the 4th round of the 2011 Australian Open, continued his excellent play by defeating defending champion (and erstwhile underwear model) Fernando Verdasco 7-6(6) 7-6(5). Raonic won his first ATP tour title and denied Verdasco his first chance to defend a tour title. The Canadian of Serbian descent (he was born in Montenegro) becomes the youngest man to win an ATP Tour title since Croatian Marin Cilic won the New Haven title at 19 in 2008. Raonic becomes the first Canadian to win a tour title since Greg Rusedski in 1995. He rises to #59 in the world rankings; he started the year at #184.

The final was played without a single break of serve. Verdasco held 4 consecutive set points at 6-2 in the first set tiebreaker and managed to lose the next 6 points to drop the first set. Raonic had a walkover in the semifinal over an injured Gael Monfils while Verdasco dismissed the always dangerous Juan Martin del Potro 6-4 6-4 in the other semifinal. In fact, Verdasco lost his service once in the entire tournament (against del Potro) and still did not defend his title.

Bzarrely, Raonic and Verdasco will meet again on Wednesday in the first-round of the hard-court tournament in Memphis.