WIMBLEDON 2011: Djokovic Beats Nadal For 3rd Major

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Novak Djokovic's miraculous 2011 season continues! As I predicted, the 24-year-old Serb beat 2-time defending Wimbledon champion Rafael Nadal in four sets 6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3 to win his 48th match of the year (compared to one loss), 8th ATP tour title of the year, 2nd major (he also won the Australian Open) of the year and 1st Wimbledon title.

It is Djokovic's 4th major title in his career, and he improves to 16 losses and 12 wins against now World #2 Nadal. Djokovic will become the 25th player to top the ATP Tour rankings in their history when the new list comes out on Monday. For the previous 7 1/2 years either Federer or Nadal had been #1 since Andy Roddick relinquished the top spot on 2 February 2004.

How He Did It
The 2011 Wimbledon final did not live up to its potential to be an instant classic of the level of the 2008 or 2009 finals. Both players came out serving in the 80% level and playing extremely well (though Nadal was making more forehand errors than usual) until suddenly at 4-5 Nadal shots started falling shorter in the court and he faced his first and only break point of the set which he lost with an error as he aimed for a down-the-line forehand which fell a foot wide.

This was the beginning of a 10-minute bad stretch for the Spaniard as Djokovic held to start the first set and then broke Nadal after reaching a drop shot and gently pushing it cross-court instead of down the line as Nadal expected. Another quick service hold and the Serbian was up 6-4, 3-0. Nadal was able to steady himself and the two traded holds when suddenly he was serving at 1-4 Nadal got into trouble again at 30-40 and during a long rally he slipped on the grass and slightly mishit a forehand into the net. Nadal was able to quickly serve out the set and grab a 6-4, 6-1 stranglehold on the match.

However, in the 3rd set Djokovic's level dropped immediately and he faced his first break point of the match in his very first service game which he lost with a tentative backhand into the net. Nadal held at love with Djokovic only getting one service return into play to go up 3-0. Both players held their next service games but it was clear that Djokovic was not playing as well as he had  in the first two sets. His service percentage plummeted to below 50% and he started making many more errors. This was capped when at 1-4 Djokovic hit his one and only double fault of the match on breakpoint to essentially concede the 3rd set, which Nadal wrapped up a few minutes later at 6-1.

The fourth set was where the match was decided and Djokovic was able to get an early break after saving a break in his very first service game and going on to hold his service game to go up 2-0. But, amazingly Nadal was able to break back (thanks to some good luck: at 1-2, 30-40 Nadal hit a slice backhand return which clipped the top of the tape and dropped a few inches on the other side of the net) to even the set again. Serving at 3-4 Nadal had another momentary lapse where he started the service game with a double fault and a quick forehand error to go down 0-30. The next point was crucial: Nadal placed an excellent down the tee first serve which Djokovic got back with interest but Nadal pulled him wide on both sides of the court which the Serbian was able to get back and on the third attempted winner Nadal hooked the ball into the net to go down 0-40. After saving the 0-40 point with a good serve and return of service-return forehand winner a few inches inside the line. At 15-40 after a 14-stroke rally Nadl's 15th stroke was atired-looking backhand which flew several feet long to give Djokovic the opportunity to serve out the match. Djokvic started with a forehand error to go down 0-15 but then Nadal hit two forehand errors to give the Serbian 30-15. Nadal played a great forehand down the line forcing a Djokovic error to bring the score back to 30-30. Djokovic served out wide to Nadal's backhand and followed it in to volleye the weak return into the open court for his first serve-and-volley point of the match. On match point Djokovic served down the tee to Nadal's backhand which produced a weak reply that the Serbian hit a forehand into the corner with topspin dragging Nadal off the court and he went for an attempted backhand down the line winner which flew several feet long and Djokovic won the point, game set and champion.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011.

Last year I predicted 1 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 0 of 2 men's semifinals correctly. This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. 

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). For the second year in a row, Andy Murray's goal to win his country's Grand Slam must go through World #1 Rafael Nadal.

 Head-to-head Nadal leads 11-4 with a 2-0 record on grass (2010 Wimbledon semifinal and 2008 Wimbledon quarterfinal). With Nadal allegedly not at 100 percent fit to play (a claim I am somewhat skeptical of) I think this gives Murray the best chance he has ever had to date to end the long drought of having a male British citizen appear in the Wimbledon final, let alone actually win the bloody thing. The four times Murray has beaten Nadal he has done it on hard courts with very strong serving, combined with first strike tennis using the forehand cross-court and the backhand down-the-line to Nadal's backhand. Murray is an excellent defender and loves to play long grueling points to demonstrate his fitness and mentally exhaust his opponents. This is exactly the wrong game plan against the (almost psychotically) mentally tough Spaniard.

Nadal has lost four consecutive times to Novak Djokovic this year because Djokovic has been getting multiple free points on his improved serve and is ridiculously flexible and strong enough to convert balls hit from defensive positions instantaneously  into offense. Murray can get free points on his serve if he serves well (i.e. in the 130 mph) but he shouldn't even THINK about playing defense. The way to beat Nadal is relatively clear: you have to bash him off of a very fast court (c.f. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's 2008 Australian Open semifinal win, Juan Martin del Potro's 2009 U.S. Open semifinal win, Murray's own 2010 Australian Open quarterfinal win).

Basically you have to be prepared to hit 4 or 5 winners to win a single point and not get frustrated about doing it for two or three hours. Murray has been in 3 career Grand Slam finals so far and has failed to win a set in any of them. For all intents and purposes, this semifinal (just like last year's Wimbledon semifinal) is even more important than a final to Murray's career. So, if past performance is a predictor of future performance, Murray will under-perform his ability and lose in 3 sets to Nadal again. However, I strongly believe that Murray is getting closer and closer to a breakthrough and one indication was his strong showing in the 2011 French Open semifinal against Nadal (which Murray lost in straight sets but he had a LOT of chances, which he was unable to convert). I believe he will take that experience of having opportunities in Paris and the strong crowd support in London to give him a very decent chance to win this match and warm the hearts of a nation. PREDICTION: Nadal in 3 OR Murray in 4 or 5 sets.

Roger Federer SUI (3) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2).

This is also a match which is "bigger" than a Grand Slam final, to one of the competitors (Djokovic), at least. If the Serb wins, he will be ranked World #1 for the first time in his career. If the Frenchman wins he would be the first of his countrymen to be in the Wimbledon final in the Open era. There are far fewer men (24) who have been ranked World #1 at some point since the rankings began in 1973 than have won a major final in that time period (almost 60).  It just so happens that this match-up is a reprise of the 2008 Australian Open final, won by Djokovic, but since that first encounter Tsonga has won 5 of 6 matches the two have played, including a stunning 5-set win in the 2010 Australian Open quarterfinals. The 2008 Australian Open final is an instructive match to analyze in understanding the dynamics between the two players because then, like now, Tsonga is coming off the biggest win of his career (in 2008 a surprisingly vicious beat down of Nadal in the Australian Open semifinal, in 2011 a stunning dismissal of Roger Federer in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon).

Then, Tsonga didn't start the match playing his best tennis until the second set and Djokovic exploited the lead to run away with the match and the title. However, it must be noted that what Tsonga achieved Roger Federer had not happened in 178 of the Swiss Great's 5-set Grand Slam matches--he lost the first two sets and then won the match (rather comfortably) with an early service break in each subsequent set and denying his opponent even a sniff at breaking his own.

Djokvic is a much better service returner than Federer so it's doubtful that strategy will work again but Tsonga has so much talent there are others that could work (serve and volley as much as possible, deny pace to Djokovic and then suddenly blast the ball for a winner) and most of all, Tsonga believes he can win. Djokovic has played 47 matches so far in 2011 and won 46 of them. This is an astonishing feat. Lately, his opponents have gotten closer and the new unbeatable Djokovic has shown some of the familiar tics of the old, retiring Djokovic, but I still believe that somehow, Nole will find a way to fulfill his destiny and win the match and reach the pinnacle of men's tennis.  PREDICTION: Djokovic.  

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at Roland Garros for 2011. This year, I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals,  3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 3 men's quarterfinals. Last year I was correct in 2 of 2 2010 French Open men's semifinal predictions.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). The 5-time defending champion played his best tennis of the tournament against the only man who has ever beaten him at Roland Garros, Robin Soderling, in the quarterfinals, dismissing the Swede in straight sets 6-4 6-1 7-6(3). Nadal now has a 43-1 lifetime record on the clay courts in Paris, an astonishing 97.7% winning percentage. For that reason alone, one must consider him the favorite in his semifinal with Andy Murray.

Murray looked good in his 7-6(2) 7-5 6-2 against Juan Ignacio Chela in the quarterfinals after surviving a near-death experience in his 5-set tussle with Viktor Troicki in the Round of 16. Head-to-head Nadal leads Murray 10-4 in the career matches, 3-2 in majors, and 3-0 on clay. Murray won a set when they played in Monaco this year and served for the match against Novak Djokovic in the Rome semifinals so his clay bona fides are legitimate. All that being said, Murray has almost no chance to win this match on Friday unless he plays the match of his life (which he has found it difficult to do on the big stage of  the 3 major finals he's been in to date as well as the 2010 Wimbledon semifinal) and Nadal plays some of his worst tennis. Nadal is playing to reach his 6th final at Roland Garros in order to try and match Bjorn Borg's all-time record, and Murray is trying to reach his 1st final in Paris. The difference is clear. PREDICTION: Nadal. 

Roger Federer SUI (3) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). "The best player of today against the best player in history," says World #1 Rafael Nadal. This will be the most mouth-wateringly epic major semifinal since the last mouth-wateringly epic major semifinal these two played at the 2011Australian Open and the one before that at the 2010 US Open where Federer had two match points and lost. There's no question that there is a lot of history on the line, but this time it is mostly on the shoulders of the 24-year-old, not the 29-year-old holder of 16-major singles titles. First, there's the amazing winning streak of 41 matches won in a row in 2011 (I think counting the two Davis Cup matches he won at the end of the year when you don't get prize money or ranking points for those wins is simply silly). If Djokovic wins on Friday he will equal John McEnroe's open era record of the best ever start to a tennis season. Second, the World #1 ranking is in play and for the first time since 2004 someone other than Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer could reach the top spot. Becoming #1 is always a momentous point in any great player's career, and this achievement would be one he has had to wait for, for a long, long time.

Third, Djokovic is trying to reach his first ever non-hard court major final, to prove that he is really an all-surfaces player. Djokovic reached this point through a walkover when handsome trickster Fabio Fognini withdrew. Federer reached his record 26th major semifinal in the last 7 years by dismissing a still-improving Gael Monfils in front of a rowdy Parisian crowd 6-4 6-3 7-6(3). Federer is in the unusual position of trying to be the spoiler, but he appears to be relishing the challenge. Federer has a 13-9 career head-to-head edge over Djokovic, including 2-1 on clay but a scant 4-3 in majors. However, the Swiss Great is playing some of his best tennis this year and has not dropped a set. He is also the last person to have beaten Novak Djokovic in an ATP Tour match, on Saturday November 27, 2010, exactly 188 days ago. That streak will last a little longer. PREDICTION:  Djokovic

ROME: Djokovic Beats Nadal In Historic Victory

Clive Brunskill/Getty Images

ANDREAS SOLARO / AFP

AP

Clive Brunskill/Getty Images

Novak Djokovic continued his history-making 2011 season by defeating Rafael Nadal in straight sets 6-4 6-4 in the final of the Italian Open a.k.a. the Rome Masters. It was the 23-year-old Serbian's 39th consecutive match won, and 37th ATP Tour win for 2011. For the second week in a row, Djokovic defeated the universally acknowledged all-time best clay court player of all time in a clay court final without losing a set to him.

In this remarkable run, Djokovic has won 7 tour titles, including 4 Masters shields (all four against World #1 Nadal) and his second major (2011 Australian Open). He has now won 4 of 9 finals against Nadal (after notably losing the 2010 US Open final) and improved his head-to-head career match-up to 11 wins, 16 losses, significantly better than Roger Federer's 8 wins, 16 losses. Both of these stats are dominated by Nadal's edge on clay (10-2 versus Djokovic and 9-2 versus Federer).

To put these numbers in perspective, Djokovic now has 9 Masters shields and 2 major titles. Nadal has 19 and 9, Federer has 17 and 16. Djokovic will turn 24 next Sunday (May 22), Nadal will turn 25 on June 3 and Federer will turn 30 on August 8.

The last 5 years has been dominated by the rivalry between Federer and Nadal, with both of them holding the top 2 ranking spots with Djokovic stuck at World #3. Djokovic is at #2 now and it's a near-certainty he will reach #1 before the end of the year, probably right after Wimbledon. There is a distinct changing of the guard in men's tennis that we are witnessing. Who would have ever thought anyone woud beat Nadal in 4 finals in a row, especially 2 clay-court finals? If Nadal had not reached the semifinals (and he almost lost in the 1st round) then Djokovic would have become #1 tomorrow if he had won the tournament (which he did anyway). Djokovic reached the quarterfinals of the 2010 French Open and the semifinals of the 2010 Wimbledon while Nadal won both those tournaments. Djokovic is almost certainly going to better his performance in those tournaments from last year, and it is not as likely that Nadal will repeat his 2010 results this year.

Rome: Federer Loses To Gasquet; Nadal, Murray Reach Semis

Roger Federer lost a tight 4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(4) clay court match to Richard Gasquet at the Rome Masters despite being up a set and a break. Gasquet followed up his best win in over two years with by defeating 2010 Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych 4-6 6-2 6-4 to reach the semifinals.

Joining him in the semifinals of the Rome Masters 1000 tournament is World #1 Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray, who will face each other on one side of the draw. Murray will likely face red-hot Novak Djokovic (who has now won 34 consecutive matches in 2011) in the other semifinal, if Djokovic gets past Robin Soderling in the last quarterfinal. Gasquet will face Nadal.

Nadal will retain his #1 ranking going into Roland Garros, where he will be the favorite to win a 6th French Open title. If Nadal had not reached the semifinal and Djokovic won the tournament, the Serb would have reached the #1 ranking. The Spaniard is defending a huge number of ranking points for the next several months, since he won the last three major tournaments of the year.

UPDATE 05/12/2011 16:10PM PDT
Djokovic dismissed Soderling 6-3 6-3 to win his 35th match of the year and will face Murray, not Gasquet. I expect a fourth consecutive Djokovic-Nadal Masters 1000 final. This time, one would have to give the edge to Djokovic to go all the way and claim the title, since he showed last week he doesn't need to fear Nadal on clay.

Nadal Becomes 1st To Win Tennis Title 7 Years In A Row

Rafael Nadal made history on Sunday by becoming the first tennis player to win a title (the Monte Carlo Masters) an incredible seven times in a row after beating David Ferrer 7-5 6-4. Roger Federer has won multiple titles (the US Open 2004-2008, Wimbledon 2003-2007) fives years in a row but no modern player has won a title even six times in a row, a feat Nadal accomplished last year in Monte Carlo.

Nadal swept every single clay tournament he played last year, including Roland Garros. He has now won 37 clay court matches in a row. Monte Carlo was also his 19th ATP Masters title, which is two more than Andre Agassi and Federer have.

Djokovic Beats Nadal In Tight 3-set Thrilller, Win Streak At 24

Novak Djokovic beat World #1 Rafael Nadal 4-6 6-3 7-6(4) in a 3 1/2 hour instant classic at the Miami Masters to win his fourth title of the year, his second consecutive Masters title and his 24th consecutive match. Djokovic is yet to lose in 2011, and is one game away from matching Ivan Lendl's 25-match win streak of 1986. He improved his head-to-head to 9 and 5 against Nadal on hardcourts, but is 0-11 against Nadal on other surfaces (2 on grass, 9 on clay). Their overall career record is now 9 wins and 16 losses.

Djokovic also beat Nadal two weeks ago in Indian Well in three sets. He becomes the first player since Roger Federer did it twice in 2005 and in 2006, to win the Key Biscayne-Indian Wells titles. Djokovic now has 7 ATP Masters titles.

Celebrity Friday: Mardy Fish, Highest Ranked American Player

Mardy Fish, Andy Roddick's childhood friend, has overtaken his buddy as the highest ranked American male player on the ATP Tour by reaching the semifinals of the Sony Ericsson Open, defeating David Ferrer 7-5 6-2. Fish's defeat of Ferrer followed a breath-taking 7-5 7-6(5) win over 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro in the 4th round.

Fish could meet Novak Djokovic if the Serbian can extend his winning streak to 23 games for 2011 by defeating Kevin Anderson. In the other half of the draw, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal could meet for the first time on American soil in over 4 years, if both win matches against Gilles Simon and Tomas Berdych, respectively.

Djokovic Beats Nadal To Win Indian Wells; Woz Wins

World #2 Novak Djokovic of Serbia poses with his BNP Paribas Open trophy (AFP/Gabriel Bouys)

Novak Djokovic continued his unprecedented start to 2011 by notching his 18th consecutive match win and 3rd consecutive tournament title. Djokovic, 23, defeated World #1 Rafael Nadal 4-6 6-3 6-2 for the first time in a ATP Tour final, one day after outlasting an error-prone Roger Federer 6-3 3-6 6-2. The Serbian is clearly the hottest player on tour, and becomes only the third player to have beaten Federer and Nadal in the same tournament twice, joining Nikolay Davydenko and David Nalbandian.

The BNP Paribas Open title was Djokovic's 21st ATP Tour title, his second at Indian Wells, following his previous win in 2008 and avenging his 2007 loss in the final to Nadal. It was his 6th ATP Masters Series title.

On the Women's side, World #1 Caroline Wozniacki beat Marion Bartoli 6-1 2-6 6-3. The Frenchwoman will return to the Top 10 when the new rankings are released on Monday.

Raonic, 20, Wins 1st ATP Title in San Jose

Canadian Milos Raonic defeated Spaniard Fernando Verdasco in
 the finals of the SAP Open in San Jose, CA to win his 1st ATP title

20-year-old Milos Raonic, the unseeded, 6'5" 200-pound Canadian player who reached the 4th round of the 2011 Australian Open, continued his excellent play by defeating defending champion (and erstwhile underwear model) Fernando Verdasco 7-6(6) 7-6(5). Raonic won his first ATP tour title and denied Verdasco his first chance to defend a tour title. The Canadian of Serbian descent (he was born in Montenegro) becomes the youngest man to win an ATP Tour title since Croatian Marin Cilic won the New Haven title at 19 in 2008. Raonic becomes the first Canadian to win a tour title since Greg Rusedski in 1995. He rises to #59 in the world rankings; he started the year at #184.

The final was played without a single break of serve. Verdasco held 4 consecutive set points at 6-2 in the first set tiebreaker and managed to lose the next 6 points to drop the first set. Raonic had a walkover in the semifinal over an injured Gael Monfils while Verdasco dismissed the always dangerous Juan Martin del Potro 6-4 6-4 in the other semifinal. In fact, Verdasco lost his service once in the entire tournament (against del Potro) and still did not defend his title.

Bzarrely, Raonic and Verdasco will meet again on Wednesday in the first-round of the hard-court tournament in Memphis.