WIMBLEDON 2011: Li Upset, Serena Survives, Raja Cruises

Sabine Lisicki celebrates her 3-6 6-4 8-6 victory over
 2011 French Open champ Li Na at Wimbledon 2nd Round
(photo credit: LEON NEAL)

Day 4 of Wimbledon's highlights was the upset defeat of #3 seed Li Na by German 21-year-old Sabine Lisicki in a tough, hard-hitting match 3-6 6-4 8-6.  Li had two match points on Lisicki's serve at 4-5 in the third set which were erased by four ridiculously huge serves over 120mph in a row, half of which were aces. Lisicki had Serena-like numbers on her serve, ending with 17 aces for the match.

The other stand-out match of  the day was the showdown between Lleyton Hewitt and Robin Soderling. The 2002 Wimbledon champion and former World #1 from Australia outplayed the current World #5 from Sweden for the first two and a half sets but succumbed in a thrilling 6-7(5) 3-6 7-5 6-4 6-4 instant classic lasting nearly 4 hours.

Speaking of Serena, she was outplayed for an entire set by Romanian teenager Simona Halep. The youngster's level dropped and Serena's level elevated midway in the second set and she basically ran away with the third set to win the match 3-6 6-2 6-1.

Other winners on Day 4 were Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin del Potro and Nicolas Almagro. Almagro took out John Isner in the second round after the American had made quick work of his 2010 (and 2011) 1st round opponent Nicolas Mahut. Federer is yet to lose a set, but will face his one-time nemesis (and 2002 Wimbledon finalist) David Nalbandian in the third round.

On the women's side Francesca Schiavone, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Nadia Petrova, Ana Ivanovic and Julia Georges with Seed #14 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Seed #13 Agnieska Radwanska losing.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Raja, Serena, Roddick, Woz Win 1st Round

Defending Champion Serena Williams cried after
 winning her first Grand Slam match in a year

Day 2 of play at the 2011 Wimbledon Championships has ended with 2-time defending champion Serena Williams winning her first round match over Aravane Rezai, "the Pocket Rocket," 6-3 3-6 6-1 and then bursting into tears afterwards. Serena improved to 44-0 in 1st round Grand Slam matches, and showed more emotion in this win than she has in winning several of her 13 major finals.

From The Daily Mail:

'I didn't expect that,' she said. 'It just hit me at the end. I'm not a crier, but it felt so emotional. I think when I won my first US Open back in 1999 I had a little cry, but not like this. It's the most emotional I've been after a win and to be a first round, well, I usually never get super-excited. But it wasn't about winning today, it was about just being out there. Everyone has their troubles and you must have faith that you can get through it. 

'I've been through a lot in the last 12 months, a lot of things that are not normal, things you guys don't even know about. It's been an arduous, long run and just to be standing up feels pretty awesome.

'I always preach to other people, "never give up", but this was my test. I could have given up, I could have sat at home and thought, "I've had a fabulous career, I don't need to work extra hard now." Instead, I proved I could. No more than that, really: I could. '

I've learned you can never take any moment for granted, I learned to try to appreciate it all. Each and every point, each and every momentI enjoy and relish. This was my struggle, my battle, something I have to overcome and still must overcome every day. This is the beginning of the road, not the end.'

Other winners in the first round were 6-time Wimbledon champ Roger Federer, 3-time Wimbledon finalist Andy Roddick, World #1 Carolina Wozniacki and World #5 Robin Soderling. The only major seeds to go out were 2010 French Open finalist Samantha Stosur and former World #1 Jelena Jankovic. Fernando Verdasco avoided 1st round disaster by coming back from 2-sets down to win 2-6 4-6 6-3 7-6(6) 9-7.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at Roland Garros for 2011. This year, I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals,  3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 3 men's quarterfinals. Last year I was correct in 2 of 2 2010 French Open men's semifinal predictions.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). The 5-time defending champion played his best tennis of the tournament against the only man who has ever beaten him at Roland Garros, Robin Soderling, in the quarterfinals, dismissing the Swede in straight sets 6-4 6-1 7-6(3). Nadal now has a 43-1 lifetime record on the clay courts in Paris, an astonishing 97.7% winning percentage. For that reason alone, one must consider him the favorite in his semifinal with Andy Murray.

Murray looked good in his 7-6(2) 7-5 6-2 against Juan Ignacio Chela in the quarterfinals after surviving a near-death experience in his 5-set tussle with Viktor Troicki in the Round of 16. Head-to-head Nadal leads Murray 10-4 in the career matches, 3-2 in majors, and 3-0 on clay. Murray won a set when they played in Monaco this year and served for the match against Novak Djokovic in the Rome semifinals so his clay bona fides are legitimate. All that being said, Murray has almost no chance to win this match on Friday unless he plays the match of his life (which he has found it difficult to do on the big stage of  the 3 major finals he's been in to date as well as the 2010 Wimbledon semifinal) and Nadal plays some of his worst tennis. Nadal is playing to reach his 6th final at Roland Garros in order to try and match Bjorn Borg's all-time record, and Murray is trying to reach his 1st final in Paris. The difference is clear. PREDICTION: Nadal. 

Roger Federer SUI (3) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). "The best player of today against the best player in history," says World #1 Rafael Nadal. This will be the most mouth-wateringly epic major semifinal since the last mouth-wateringly epic major semifinal these two played at the 2011Australian Open and the one before that at the 2010 US Open where Federer had two match points and lost. There's no question that there is a lot of history on the line, but this time it is mostly on the shoulders of the 24-year-old, not the 29-year-old holder of 16-major singles titles. First, there's the amazing winning streak of 41 matches won in a row in 2011 (I think counting the two Davis Cup matches he won at the end of the year when you don't get prize money or ranking points for those wins is simply silly). If Djokovic wins on Friday he will equal John McEnroe's open era record of the best ever start to a tennis season. Second, the World #1 ranking is in play and for the first time since 2004 someone other than Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer could reach the top spot. Becoming #1 is always a momentous point in any great player's career, and this achievement would be one he has had to wait for, for a long, long time.

Third, Djokovic is trying to reach his first ever non-hard court major final, to prove that he is really an all-surfaces player. Djokovic reached this point through a walkover when handsome trickster Fabio Fognini withdrew. Federer reached his record 26th major semifinal in the last 7 years by dismissing a still-improving Gael Monfils in front of a rowdy Parisian crowd 6-4 6-3 7-6(3). Federer is in the unusual position of trying to be the spoiler, but he appears to be relishing the challenge. Federer has a 13-9 career head-to-head edge over Djokovic, including 2-1 on clay but a scant 4-3 in majors. However, the Swiss Great is playing some of his best tennis this year and has not dropped a set. He is also the last person to have beaten Novak Djokovic in an ATP Tour match, on Saturday November 27, 2010, exactly 188 days ago. That streak will last a little longer. PREDICTION:  Djokovic

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Federer, Schiavone, Bartoli in Semifinals

Getty

As I predicted yesterday, Roger Federer reached his 26th major semifinal in 28 majors by defeating Gael Monfils at the French Open for the 3rd time in 4 years on Tuesday. The Swiss Great beat the Frenchman in front of his hometown crowd 6-4 6-3 7-6(3) despite some truly atrocious play early on in the first set, probably due to the very difficult windy conditions.

In other matches completed, Andy Murray reached the quarterfinals by coming back from 2-5 in the 5th set to win 7-5. He will face Juan Ignaco Chela for the right to face the winner of tomorrow's blockbuster quarterfinal between Rafael Nadal and Robin Soderling. Francescha Schiavone came back from 1-6 1-4 down to against youngster Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to win 1-6 7-5 7-5 in an astonishing result for the defending champion. Schiavone will face Frenchwoman Marion Bartoli who defied my predictions and bounced 2009 French Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova from the tournament 7-6(4) 6-4. Schiavone is very likely to reach her second consecutive French Open final.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Fabio Fognini won his marathon 4th round match to a chorus of boos and cheers and
then withdrew from the tournament prior to playing the biggest match of his career.

(Photo credit:  Benoit Tessier, REUTERS)

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2011 French Open. Last year, I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Robin Soderling SWE (5). The dream quarterfinal. Rafael Nadal has only ever lost one match at Roland Garros, and it was to his quarterfinal opponent, the World #5 tall, muscular Swede Robin Soderling. He defeated the 4-time defending champion in 2009, in one of the greatest upsets in sports of the last decade; Soderling followed up that upset by repeating it the following year by beating the defending champion Roger Federer in the quarterfinals to end Federer's incredible streak of 23 consecutive Grand Slam semifinals. Nadal does not appear to be playing his best tennis this year but still must be considered the favorite considering his overall clay court record. However, Nadal's confidence must  be shaken by his two recent losses to Djokovic in two clay court Masters finals this season. Soderling does not lack confidence, and if he plays his best tennis against Nadal's not-best tennis, he will repeat his 2009 result. If Nadal plays at his 2010 level, then the defending champion should get through and possibly win a 6th Roland Garros title, tying Bjorn Borg's record. PREDICTION: Soderling in 4 sets.  

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Juan Ignacio Chela ARG. Andy Murray's dream draw turned into a nightmare during his 3rd round victory over a lefty qualifier Michael Berrer when he badly twisted his ankle in a 3-set win. He started his next round gingerly, losing the first 5 games of his 4th round match with Serbian Viktor Troicki. The World #4 came within one point of drawing even in the first set but ultimately ended up losing the first two sets 6-4 6-4. However, his movement and attitude visibly improved  and he was able to force a fifth and deciding set before darkness fell. I presume he will be able to win the deciding fifth set when play resumes on Tuesday and should have no problem dismissing the 31-year-old Argentine clay court specialist playing in his 3rd career major quarterfinal on Thursday. PREDICTION: Murray in 3 sets. 

Gael Monfils FRA (9) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). Federer continues to write his name in the tennis record books by reaching his 28th consecutive major quarterfinal with an efficient dispatch of countryman Stanislas Wawrinka in the 4th round. While Djokovic is winning universal acclaim and attention by continuing his flawless 2011 season, Federer continues to demonstrate why he has been at the upper echelon of men's tennis for the last seven consecutive years. There are few players in the Top 10 who have even played 28 consecutive major tournaments, and Federer has been in the last 8 or better in 28 consecutive major tournaments. His opponent is the Pride of France, "La Monf" who is in his 3rd quarterfinal at Roland Garros in 4 years. Unfortunately for the Frenchman, he has never won a match on clay against Federer. In fact, last fall in front of a Paris crowd, Monfils won his first match ever (in 6 tries) against the Swiss Great when he saved an incredible 5 match points and went on to win one of the best matches of the year in three tiebreak sets. However, getting through a tough 5-set against the always hard-to-beat David Ferrer in the 4th round was another indicator that the excessively talented, prodigiously athletic Monfils' results may start matching his potential. Federer is yet to lose a set in his 2011 appearance at Roland Garros, and while I expect that streak to end, I also expect he will again find a way to yet another major semifinal and a historic showdown with Novak Djokovic. PREDICTION:  Federer in 4 sets.

Fabio Fognini ITA vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). The quarterfinal that wasn't. The puckishly handsome Italian showed he was more than just a pretty face by outlasting clay court specialist Albert Montanes 11-9 in the fifth set despite being unable to move due to suffering a muscle tear (or cramps?) in his leg at 5-6, 15-30. Fognini basically started blasting winners into all the corners on the court to erase 5 match points and controversially emerged with the win. However, he knew that he would have no chance against the red-hot Serbian who has yet to lose  a match in 2011 and thus withdrew (on advice of his doctors, who confirmed a 1cm muscle tear via MRI). This is both good news and bad news for Djokovic. It means that he is at least one round further in the tournament than he was last year, which is good news for his campaign to become World #1. He just needs to win one more match to reach his first French Open final and he will attain this goal of being acknowledged (by the computer) as the #1 player in the world. All Djokovic has to do is either beat 16-time major champion Roger Federer or hometown favorite Gael Monfils coming off the biggest win of his career in the semifinals on Friday. Getting to this point via walkover is bad news for Djokovic because he doesn't get credit for the win, so his streak remains at 41-0 for 2011 and that means he can only break John McEnroe's 1984 streak of 42-0 by winning the entire tournament. Plus it means he has a bizarre 4-day break in the middle of a major tournament after playing 3 consecutive days. It will be interesting to see what, if any, these factors have on Djokovic's play in the semifinal. I suspect nothing will deny Djokovic's date with destiny.