UPSET #2! Tsonga Beats Federer 2nd Time In A Row!

The day after the tennis world was stunned by Rafael Nadal losing his first match played in nearly 5 weeks a second thunderbolt is reverberating from the news that Roger Federer lost to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for the second consecutive time today. The score was 7-6(3) 4-6 6-1.

Novak Djokovic showed why he is the new World #1 by increasing to 50 wins and one loss for the season by defeating Marin Cilic 7-5 6-3.

This is just more evidence that the end of the tennis era dominated by Federer and Nadal is coming to an end, perhaps sooner than we think.

SHOCK! Nadal Loses 2nd Consecutive Match

World #2 Rafael Nadal lost his second match in a row for the first time since 2009 when he went down 1-6 6-7(5) 6-7(5) against Croatian Ivan Dodig at the Rogers Masters tournament in Quebec. World #3 Roger Federer, who turned 30 years old on Monday August 8, and World #1 Novak Djokovic both won their first matches since Wimbledon easily in straight sets.

Djokovic improved to a stratospheric 49-1 for the year, having won 7 titles including the Australian Open (d. Murray) and Wimbledon (d. Nadal) while Federer is at 40-9 with only one title but also one very important victory over Djokovic (at the French Open). Next up for Federer is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who eliminated him in the Wimbledon quarterfinals this year.

World #4 Andy Murray also lost his first match back, despite winning this title the last 2 years in a row. Still in the tournament are Juan Martin del Potro, Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Final Preview

Novak Djokovic SRB (2) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (1)

How They Got Here.
Novak Djokovic played the most entertaining match of the fortnight against Jo-Wifried Tsonga, who was trying to repeat the amazing level of play which allowed him to dismiss 6-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer in 5-sets after dropping the first two by dropping his serve in the first game of the match and holding serve in twenty-four consecutive service games to beat the Swiss great 3-6 6-7(3) 6-4 6-4 6-4. Djokovic was pushed by Tsonga to four sets, eventually winning 7-6(4) 6-2 6-7(9) 6-3. Tsonga mounted a challenge despite being down 4-2 in the 3rd set after winning an amazing exchange where both combatants ended face down on the grass. The crowd applauded ecstatically which caused both players to relax. This was a plus for Tsonga and a minus for Djokovic who was broken in the next service game and then lost a tight tiebrekaer despite having two match points.

Rafael Nadal has now won 20 matches in a row at Wimbledon dating back to his 2007 five-set  loss in the final to Federer. Although Andy Murray was able to win the first set 7-5 through aggressive play (and an uncharacteristically sloppy sixth service game by Nadal). This was incredibly important moment for the Scot's tennis future to show that he could win a set against Nadal in a crucial match but  Murray had a momentary mental lapse (hitting a sitter overhead meters out of the court) which led to an early break in the second set. That, combined with an apparent groin injury made the result of the match very clear as the third and fourth sets slipped away quckly. The result was a 5-7 6-2 6-2 6-4 win to place the Spaniard in his 5th consecutive Wimbledon final (skipping the 2009 tournament due to injury).

The Match Up
Head-to-head Nadal leads Djokovic 16-11, but the Serbian has played Nadal in 4 finals this year and won every time, including (shockingly!) two wins in clay court finals (in Madrid and Rome). The only person who has beaten Djokovic in over seven months is Roger Federer, after playing some of the best clay court tennis he has ever exhibited in Paris this yearin the semifinals of Roland Garros. Let me repeat that: Djokovic has won 47 matches in 2011 and only lost one. Can he continue his amazing run now that he has had to play at a stratospheric level of near-perfection to reach his lifetime goal of becoming World #1? How long can he possibly maintain this form? Can anyone possibly beat Nadal in five consecutive finals?

The first thing Nadal mention is that this match is played at a major so it is the first time during Djokovic's streak they are playing best-of-five-sets tennis. It is also a historic moment, the winner of the first major of 2011 playing against the winner of the second major of 2011. Nadal unquestionably has more experience at this level; Djokovic is only playing in his 5th major final, where he has won 2 (against Tsonga in the 2008 Australian Open final and against Murray in the 2011 Australian final) and lost two (2007 US Open final to Federer and 2010 US Open final to Nadal). Nadal is in his 13th major final, sporting an impressive 10-2 record, with the two losses in finals coming here at Wimbledon in 2006 and 2007 to the third member of the historic "trivalry," Roger Federer.

Mentally, I believe Djokovic has the edge in Sunday's match. Nadal hasn't even really been close in the last two matches they have played on clay which has got to worry him at important moments, especially if Djokovic gets off to a quick start. The only major finals Nadal has ever lost have been on grass and although Djokovic has never won a set against Nadal on the surface, Nadal knows that person he played then (in the 2007 Wimbledon semifinal and the 2008 Queens club final) is not the same person he will be facing on Sunday. That streak will almost certainly end.

The ATP website has a very interesting summary of the two player's performances at Wimbledon to date which seems to indicate Nadal has played at a slightly higher level. Nadal has an astonishing 113 forehand winners and (a paltry) 29 backhand winners compared to 35 forehand errors and 19 backhand errors. Djokovic has 62 forehand winners and 49 backhand errors compared to 46 forehand errors and 37 backhand errors. Nadal is listed as having had an amazing 244 winners and 60 errors (+184) over 6 rounds while Djokovic has a mere 199 winners and 99 errors (+100).

Their serves are equivalently effective: Nadal is serving at 70% in while Djokovic is at 68%. The Spaniard has served 44 aces to 6 double faults while the Serbian has served 54 aces and 15 double faults, which is basically about even.

Who Will Win

I tend to go with the idea that the person with the more effective serve will win the match unless the serve can be counteracted by superior movement and better service returning. With serves basically at a draw, I give Nadal the slight edge in movement but Djokovic the edge in returning. I believe the match will be very very close, probably on the level of the incredible Wimbledon finals of 2008 (Greatest Match Of All Time won by Nadal over Federer) and 2009 (won by Federer over Andy Roddick).

MadProfessah's Prediction: Djokovic in 3 or 4 sets OR Nadal in 5 sets.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Djokovic Becomes World #1; Reaches Final

As I predicted, Novak Djokovic defeated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 7-6(4) 6-2 6-7(9) 6-3 in the 2011 Wimbledon semifinals to win his astonishing 47th match of the year (out of 48 played) and claim the World #1 ranking for the first time.

The only person to beat Djokovic all year is Roger Federer and Tsonga beat him on Wednesday. I really don't see either player (Rafael Nadal or Andy Murray) from the other semifinal stopping the 24-year-old Nole from winning his first Wimbledon title (and 8th title of the year) on Sunday.

Congrats to the new #1 from Serbia!

WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011.

Last year I predicted 1 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 0 of 2 men's semifinals correctly. This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. 

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). For the second year in a row, Andy Murray's goal to win his country's Grand Slam must go through World #1 Rafael Nadal.

 Head-to-head Nadal leads 11-4 with a 2-0 record on grass (2010 Wimbledon semifinal and 2008 Wimbledon quarterfinal). With Nadal allegedly not at 100 percent fit to play (a claim I am somewhat skeptical of) I think this gives Murray the best chance he has ever had to date to end the long drought of having a male British citizen appear in the Wimbledon final, let alone actually win the bloody thing. The four times Murray has beaten Nadal he has done it on hard courts with very strong serving, combined with first strike tennis using the forehand cross-court and the backhand down-the-line to Nadal's backhand. Murray is an excellent defender and loves to play long grueling points to demonstrate his fitness and mentally exhaust his opponents. This is exactly the wrong game plan against the (almost psychotically) mentally tough Spaniard.

Nadal has lost four consecutive times to Novak Djokovic this year because Djokovic has been getting multiple free points on his improved serve and is ridiculously flexible and strong enough to convert balls hit from defensive positions instantaneously  into offense. Murray can get free points on his serve if he serves well (i.e. in the 130 mph) but he shouldn't even THINK about playing defense. The way to beat Nadal is relatively clear: you have to bash him off of a very fast court (c.f. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's 2008 Australian Open semifinal win, Juan Martin del Potro's 2009 U.S. Open semifinal win, Murray's own 2010 Australian Open quarterfinal win).

Basically you have to be prepared to hit 4 or 5 winners to win a single point and not get frustrated about doing it for two or three hours. Murray has been in 3 career Grand Slam finals so far and has failed to win a set in any of them. For all intents and purposes, this semifinal (just like last year's Wimbledon semifinal) is even more important than a final to Murray's career. So, if past performance is a predictor of future performance, Murray will under-perform his ability and lose in 3 sets to Nadal again. However, I strongly believe that Murray is getting closer and closer to a breakthrough and one indication was his strong showing in the 2011 French Open semifinal against Nadal (which Murray lost in straight sets but he had a LOT of chances, which he was unable to convert). I believe he will take that experience of having opportunities in Paris and the strong crowd support in London to give him a very decent chance to win this match and warm the hearts of a nation. PREDICTION: Nadal in 3 OR Murray in 4 or 5 sets.

Roger Federer SUI (3) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2).

This is also a match which is "bigger" than a Grand Slam final, to one of the competitors (Djokovic), at least. If the Serb wins, he will be ranked World #1 for the first time in his career. If the Frenchman wins he would be the first of his countrymen to be in the Wimbledon final in the Open era. There are far fewer men (24) who have been ranked World #1 at some point since the rankings began in 1973 than have won a major final in that time period (almost 60).  It just so happens that this match-up is a reprise of the 2008 Australian Open final, won by Djokovic, but since that first encounter Tsonga has won 5 of 6 matches the two have played, including a stunning 5-set win in the 2010 Australian Open quarterfinals. The 2008 Australian Open final is an instructive match to analyze in understanding the dynamics between the two players because then, like now, Tsonga is coming off the biggest win of his career (in 2008 a surprisingly vicious beat down of Nadal in the Australian Open semifinal, in 2011 a stunning dismissal of Roger Federer in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon).

Then, Tsonga didn't start the match playing his best tennis until the second set and Djokovic exploited the lead to run away with the match and the title. However, it must be noted that what Tsonga achieved Roger Federer had not happened in 178 of the Swiss Great's 5-set Grand Slam matches--he lost the first two sets and then won the match (rather comfortably) with an early service break in each subsequent set and denying his opponent even a sniff at breaking his own.

Djokvic is a much better service returner than Federer so it's doubtful that strategy will work again but Tsonga has so much talent there are others that could work (serve and volley as much as possible, deny pace to Djokovic and then suddenly blast the ball for a winner) and most of all, Tsonga believes he can win. Djokovic has played 47 matches so far in 2011 and won 46 of them. This is an astonishing feat. Lately, his opponents have gotten closer and the new unbeatable Djokovic has shown some of the familiar tics of the old, retiring Djokovic, but I still believe that somehow, Nole will find a way to fulfill his destiny and win the match and reach the pinnacle of men's tennis.  PREDICTION: Djokovic.  

WIMBLEDON 2011: Shock! Tsonga Beats Federer In 5 Sets!

Roger Federer had a career record of 178-0 after winning the first 2 sets in a grand slam tennis match. Against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga he won the first two sets 6-3 7-6(3) but then lost the next three sets 4-6 4-6 4-6 when Tsonga broke once in each set. Federer broke Tsonga in the first game of the match but then never had another breakpoint in the entire match.

For the second year in a row, the 16-time major champion fell in the quarterfinal round of Wimbledon, defying my predictions. Even though I predicted (and desired) a Federer win, I am not that surprised by Tsonga's win. He is an excellent grass-court player, has beaten Federer before despite doing 1-5 in the final set and Federer, to me, looked shaky in the 4th round aginst Youzhny. Still, I am shocked that Federer only had 1 break point in over 3 hours of play (which he converted) while Tsonga converted 3 of 9. Will Federer ever win another major? I believe he will, but now I think he will need some help from the other players going out early.

Interestingly, Novak Djokovic is actually 2-5 career head-to-head against Tsonga, despite beating him in the 2008 Australian Open final to win his first major. This will be an even more important match for Djokovic: if he wins the match, he becomes the World #1 ranked player.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Roger Federer                                                   © AELTC/S.Wake

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. Last year's I correctly predicted the results of 1 of 4 men's quarterfinals right before I got on a plane to London to attend the men's final. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Tomas Berdych CZE (6) Mardy Fish USA (10). Who would have thought that the last American player remaining in the draw at Wimbledon deep in the second week would be Mardy Fish? The American took out last year's Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych by exposing the 6'5" Czech mobility deficit with blistering groundstrokes into the corners and confident volleys following very big serves. Nadal was lucky to escape his meeting with Juan Martin del Potro in the 4th round but did not come away unscathed; apparently there is a foot or heel injury which is invisible to MRIs but which caused Nadal to take a 9-minute injury time-out at 6-all in the first set. The 2-time defending champion won that 1st set tie-break (despite being 0-3 down) and went on to win the match 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4. Mardy has only one won set against Nadal in 5 career meetings, but all of their matches were played before Fish transformed himself by losing 30 pounds and dedicating himself to fitness. The results have been extraordinary: he is now the top rated American male and will likely be so for the foreseeable future. Unless Nadal's injury plays a factor, I still don't see Fish advancing from his first Wimbledon quarterfinal to his first Wimbledon semifinal. PREDICTION: Nadal.

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Feliciano Lopez ESP. The only drama in this match will be who will be the first to mention the "controversy" that one of the player's parents finds the other player attractive. Feliciano Lopez is definitely an excellent grass-court player and is unquestionably one of the most handsome players on the tour. He is in his third career Wimbledon quarterfinal, which is the furthest he has ever been in any major.  In 2011 he has already achieved a number of firsts, including having a match point against Roger Federer and defeating Andy Roddick for the first time. That being said, Murray has the hopes of a nation on his shoulders and after a surprisingly good result at this year's French Open appears to be comfortable with pressure he faces to play his best tennis in SW19. Murray has yet to lose on grass this year. He knows he could have played much better in his 2010 Wimbledon semifinal against Nadal last year and wants another chance. I think he'll get it. PREDICTION: Murray.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). This match should be the best of the 2011 Men's Quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Tsonga is a very good grass-court player, playing (but losing) a very good final against Murrayat the Queen's Club. Tsonga actually has a win against Federer (on hard courts) and has only played the Swiss Maestro 5 times so the career head-to-head deficit is not overwhelming. However, the fact that he will be playing Living History, the man who is in his 29th(!) consecutive major quarterfinal  and is trying to win this tournament for a record-tying 7th time must be daunting. Interestingly, since Tsonga had to play Grigor "Baby Fed" Dimitrov earlier in the tournament he may feel well-prepared to handle the real Federer on the big stage this time. Federer was able to dismiss Mikhail Youzhny in four sets after inexplicably dropping the first set tie-break after holding a 4-2 lead at the change over but he really didn't look comfortable to me despite the 6-7(5) 6-3 6-3 6-3 scoreline. Youzhny is a crafty veteran but he does not possess the firepower to really give Federer difficulties at crucial moments. Tsonga does. That being said Federer is aiming for his 27th major semifinal and 22nd major final. I believe that he will reach both. PREDICTION: Federer. 

Bernard Tomic AUS  vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). For the first time in 25 years one of the men's quarterfinalists is an 18-year-old, Bernard Tomic. Australians, especially his father, have been talking up Tomic's talent for years so it is impressive the youngster has matched a feat last achieve by Boris Becker. But there the similarities end. Tomic's game is like Murray 2.0 when he was 18: lots of different spins, excellent movement, full of guile and almost zero aggression.  It is not an attractive picture. Djokovic, despite only losing one match (out of 46 played!) all year long, has progressed through the draw like a ninja, silently dispatching his opponents by gliding around the court, seeming to do very little only to see the vanquished drop to the ground, defeated. He had a slight hiccup against a game Marcos Baghdatis, but one never really believed that the World's #2 was in any danger of losing. I have a very similar feeling about this match. Most likely for the second major in a row, the Top 4 players will reach the semifinals.   PREDICTION: Djokovic. 

WIMBLEDON 2011: Li Upset, Serena Survives, Raja Cruises

Sabine Lisicki celebrates her 3-6 6-4 8-6 victory over
 2011 French Open champ Li Na at Wimbledon 2nd Round
(photo credit: LEON NEAL)

Day 4 of Wimbledon's highlights was the upset defeat of #3 seed Li Na by German 21-year-old Sabine Lisicki in a tough, hard-hitting match 3-6 6-4 8-6.  Li had two match points on Lisicki's serve at 4-5 in the third set which were erased by four ridiculously huge serves over 120mph in a row, half of which were aces. Lisicki had Serena-like numbers on her serve, ending with 17 aces for the match.

The other stand-out match of  the day was the showdown between Lleyton Hewitt and Robin Soderling. The 2002 Wimbledon champion and former World #1 from Australia outplayed the current World #5 from Sweden for the first two and a half sets but succumbed in a thrilling 6-7(5) 3-6 7-5 6-4 6-4 instant classic lasting nearly 4 hours.

Speaking of Serena, she was outplayed for an entire set by Romanian teenager Simona Halep. The youngster's level dropped and Serena's level elevated midway in the second set and she basically ran away with the third set to win the match 3-6 6-2 6-1.

Other winners on Day 4 were Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin del Potro and Nicolas Almagro. Almagro took out John Isner in the second round after the American had made quick work of his 2010 (and 2011) 1st round opponent Nicolas Mahut. Federer is yet to lose a set, but will face his one-time nemesis (and 2002 Wimbledon finalist) David Nalbandian in the third round.

On the women's side Francesca Schiavone, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Nadia Petrova, Ana Ivanovic and Julia Georges with Seed #14 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Seed #13 Agnieska Radwanska losing.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Seeds Released (Serena #7, Clijsters Out)

Wimbledon starts on Monday, so the seedings have been released today, with the draw happening on Friday. The grass-court tournament is the only major to often drastically differ from the world rankings, and they have done so again.

Here are the men's singles seeds:

Gentlemen's Singles

1 Rafael NADAL (ESP) [1]
2 Novak DJOKOVIC (SRB) [2]
3 Roger FEDERER (SUI) [3]
4 Andy MURRAY (GBR) [4]
5 Robin SODERLING (SWE) [5]
6 Tomas BERDYCH (CZE) [6]
7 David FERRER (ESP) [7]
8 Andy RODDICK (USA) [8]
9 Gael MONFILS (FRA) [9]
10 Mardy FISH (USA) [10]
11 Jurgen MELZER (AUT) [11]
12 Jo-Wilfried TSONGA (FRA) [12]
13 Viktor TROICKI (SRB) [13]
14 Stanislas WAWRINKA (SUI) [14]
15 Gilles SIMON (FRA) [15]
16 Nicolas ALMAGRO (ESP) [16]
17 Richard GASQUET (FRA) [17]
18 Mikhail YOUZHNY (RUS) [18]
19 Michael LLODRA (FRA) [19]
20 Florian MAYER (GER) [20]
21 Fernando VERDASCO (ESP) [21]
22 Alexandr DOLGOPOLOV (UKR) [22]
23 Janko TIPSAREVIC (SRB) [23]
24 Juan Martin DEL POTRO (ARG) [24]
25 Juan Ignacio CHELA (ARG) [25]
26 Guillermo GARCIA-LOPEZ (ESP) [26]
27 Marin CILIC (CRO) [27]
28 David NALBANDIAN (ARG) [28]
29 Nikolay DAVYDENKO (RUS) [29]
30 Thomaz BELLUCCI (BRA) [30]
31 Milos RAONIC (CAN) [31]
32 Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP) [32]

The main beneficiaries are Tsonga who moves from ATP #19 ranking to Seed #12 and Llodra who moves from ATP #25 ranking to Seed #19.

The women's singles seeds are even more interesting 

1 Caroline WOZNIACKI (DEN) [1]
2. Vera ZVONAREVA (RUS) [2]

3. Na LI (CHN) [3]
4. Victoria AZARENKA (BLR) [4]
5. Maria SHARAPOVA (RUS) [5]
6. Francesca SCHIAVONE (ITA) [6]
7. Serena WILLIAMS (USA) [7]
8. Petra KVITOVA (CZE) [8]
9. Marion BARTOLI (FRA) [9]
10. Samantha STOSUR (AUS) [10]
11. Andrea PETKOVIC (GER) [11]
12. Svetlana KUZNETSOVA (RUS) [12]
13. Agnieszka RADWANSKA (POL) [13]
14. Anastasia PAVLYUCHENKOVA (RUS) [14]
15. Jelena JANKOVIC (SRB) [15]
16. Julia GOERGES (GER) [16]
17. Kaia KANEPI (EST) [17]
18. Ana IVANOVIC (SRB) [18]
19. Yanina WICKMAYER (BEL) [19]
20. Shuai PENG (CHN) [20]
21. Flavia PENNETTA (ITA) [21]
22. Shahar PEER (ISR) [22]
23. Venus WILLIAMS (USA) [23]
24. Dominika CIBULKOVA (SVK) [24]
25. Daniela HANTUCHOVA (SVK) [25]
26. Maria KIRILENKO (RUS) [26]
27. Jarmila GAJDOSOVA (AUS) [27]
28. Ekaterina MAKAROVA (RUS) [28]
29. Roberta VINCI (ITA) [29]
30. Bethanie MATTEK-SANDS (USA) [30]
31. Lucie SAFAROVA (CZE) [31]
32. Tsvetana PIRONKOVA (BUL) [32]

The shocker is the removal of Kim Clijsters, who withdrew from the tournament with a re-injured ankle this morning. The 2010 defending champion Serena was seeded #8 but moved up to #7, despite her WTA #26 ranking. Venus, who is a 5-time champion was seeded #23 despite her WTA #33 ranking. This is an absolute travesty of a seeding for Venus. One year ago Serena was ranked #1 in the world and Venus was ranked #2 but the two have played only a handful of tournaments combined since then (Serena hasn't played at all).

Queen's Club: Murray Beats Tsonga For 1st Title of 2011

Andy Murray came back from a set behind to win a rain-delayed final 3-6 7-6(2) 6-4 at Queen's Club on grass against Jo-Wilfired Tsonga. It was his first title of the year and his second at Queen's, which he won in 2009. It was his 17th ATP Tour title.

Queen's Club Final: Tsonga v Murray Postponed To Monday

Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will face each other on the Queen's Club Aegon Championships final on Monday due to inclement weather.

Tsonga Upsets Nadal On Grass At Queens

Fresh off winning his 6th French Open title on Sunday, Rafael Nadal went to London on Monday and played in the Queen's Club tournament which is a warm-up for Wimbledon which starts on June 20th. Like last year, Nadal lost in the quarterfinals to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-7(3) 6-4 6-1. Tsonga will play British qualifier James Ward while Andy Roddick will play Andy Murray in the other semifinal. So, presumably Tsonga will face Andy in the final. Tsonga has never done well at Wimbledon but perhaps this breakthrough could signal a change for the better.

Nadal won the 2010 Wimbledon final over Tomas Berdych in straight sets 6-3 7-5 6-4, after Berdych eliminated 2009 champion Roger Federer in the quarterfinals.

Celebrity Friday: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Poses Nude

Here's a little break from our coverage of the 2011 French Open. French tennis player Jo-Wilfried Tsonga posed nude for the July 2011 UK edition of Cosmopolitan and said "My favourite part of my body is my buttocks."

Hmm, I think there some other parts of his body which would be my favorite!

Hat/tip to Rod 2.0