WIMBLEDON 2011: Women's Final Preview

Maria Sharapova RUS (5) vs. Petra Kvitova CZE (8). 

This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals.

Here are my predictions for the women's final at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011.

For the first time since 2006 there will not be a Williams playing the final women's match at Wimbledon. Instead we have the now-veteran Maria Sharapova, at 24, seeking her 2nd Wimbledon crown and 4th major title overall. After she broke through as a teenage phenom to win Wimbledon in 2004 by blasting Serena Williams off the court in straight sets many hailed the blonde, blue-eyed Russian as the new Ice Princess of Tennis and her face quickly became the most photographed countenance in all of women's sports, leading to untold riches off the court in the endorsement jackpot. However, since those heady days, Sharapova has only won 3 major titles, like clock work, every even year: 2004 Wimbledon, 2006 U.S. Open and 2008 Australian Open. This put her in the company of past champions like Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati and Kim Clijsters and not legends of the game like Martina Navratilova, Chris Evert or Serena Williams. Sharapova's metronomic Grand Slam winning pattern was interrupted by an October 2008 shoulder surgery after which she suffered the indignities of failing to get past the Round of 8 in any major for two full calendar years due to intermittent serving difficulties.

However, now it's 2011 and  for the last month or so Sharapova has gotten back to doing what she does best: hitting the bejeezus out of the little yellow ball into the corners of the court followed by an ear-shattering "grunt." She came very close to completing the career slam in Paris but was outlasted by a steadier player, Li Na who went on to win the title.  

Her opponent is a 21-year-old first-time finalist from the Czech Republic, the same age the great Martina Navratilova was when she won her first of 9 Wimbledon singles titles. Whether Petra Kvitova will go on to as storied  a career as her fellow countrywoman is something we can not know now, but the two have a lot of similarities in their games. They both are big-serving lefties, with hard-hitting ground strokes on both wings and a willingness to approach the net. Martina was the consummate serve and volleyer, the dominant strategy of her era, while Kvitova is the epitome of the modern game, able to blast winners from any position in the court.

Sharapova has not dropped a set on her way to the final and hasn't had to play anyone very troublesome along the way, except for wild card Sabine Lisicki. The German had been playing some of the best grass court tennis of the year, dispatching Marion Bartoli (who had dismissed 2-time defending champion Serena Williams) and Li Na in two very exciting matches. The mouthwatering "Mean Girls" quarterfinal with Sharapova and "World #1" Caroline Wozniacki never materialized because Pocket Rocket Dominika Cibulkova dismissed the new It girl in the 4th round and was rewarded by being demolished by Sharapova in the quarterfinals. Hometown favorite Laura Robson was able to ride the crowd's enthusiasm to a first-set tiebreaker in the second round but Sharapova hasn't even faced a set point for the entire tournament.

Kvitova, on the other hand, has had to play 3 tough sets to go through World #5 Victoria Azarenka and had another tight 3-set match with Tsevetana Pironkova, the woman who dismissed Venus Williams, the best female grass-court player of her generation from Wimbledon, in two consecutive years by the same exact score!

Head-to-head the two have played only once with Sharapova winning easily (on clay before Kvitova made her breakthrough by reaching the semifinals of Wimbledon last year). The intangibles definitely favor Sharapova; she has won before, this is her 5th major final, it is Kvitova's first. However, if you look at their style of play you see that Sharapova has had 11 more double faults than aces (32 to 21) while Kvitova has 22 more aces than double faults (35 to 13). Summary: Kvitova's serve is a weapon, while Sharapova's is a liability.  Generally, on grass, the person with the better serve wins, unless the other person has better movement and better returning. Sharapova does have a better return than Kvitova: she will go for a direct winner on both first and second serves. Is Sharapova a better mover than Kvitova? Doubtful, though quite honestly neither of them are superb in this category. All-in-all, Kvitova has the game to win the title, and I believe she will.

MadProfessah's PREDICTION: Kvitova.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Seeds Released (Serena #7, Clijsters Out)

Wimbledon starts on Monday, so the seedings have been released today, with the draw happening on Friday. The grass-court tournament is the only major to often drastically differ from the world rankings, and they have done so again.

Here are the men's singles seeds:

Gentlemen's Singles

1 Rafael NADAL (ESP) [1]
2 Novak DJOKOVIC (SRB) [2]
3 Roger FEDERER (SUI) [3]
4 Andy MURRAY (GBR) [4]
5 Robin SODERLING (SWE) [5]
6 Tomas BERDYCH (CZE) [6]
7 David FERRER (ESP) [7]
8 Andy RODDICK (USA) [8]
9 Gael MONFILS (FRA) [9]
10 Mardy FISH (USA) [10]
11 Jurgen MELZER (AUT) [11]
12 Jo-Wilfried TSONGA (FRA) [12]
13 Viktor TROICKI (SRB) [13]
14 Stanislas WAWRINKA (SUI) [14]
15 Gilles SIMON (FRA) [15]
16 Nicolas ALMAGRO (ESP) [16]
17 Richard GASQUET (FRA) [17]
18 Mikhail YOUZHNY (RUS) [18]
19 Michael LLODRA (FRA) [19]
20 Florian MAYER (GER) [20]
21 Fernando VERDASCO (ESP) [21]
22 Alexandr DOLGOPOLOV (UKR) [22]
23 Janko TIPSAREVIC (SRB) [23]
24 Juan Martin DEL POTRO (ARG) [24]
25 Juan Ignacio CHELA (ARG) [25]
26 Guillermo GARCIA-LOPEZ (ESP) [26]
27 Marin CILIC (CRO) [27]
28 David NALBANDIAN (ARG) [28]
29 Nikolay DAVYDENKO (RUS) [29]
30 Thomaz BELLUCCI (BRA) [30]
31 Milos RAONIC (CAN) [31]
32 Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP) [32]

The main beneficiaries are Tsonga who moves from ATP #19 ranking to Seed #12 and Llodra who moves from ATP #25 ranking to Seed #19.

The women's singles seeds are even more interesting 

1 Caroline WOZNIACKI (DEN) [1]
2. Vera ZVONAREVA (RUS) [2]

3. Na LI (CHN) [3]
4. Victoria AZARENKA (BLR) [4]
5. Maria SHARAPOVA (RUS) [5]
6. Francesca SCHIAVONE (ITA) [6]
7. Serena WILLIAMS (USA) [7]
8. Petra KVITOVA (CZE) [8]
9. Marion BARTOLI (FRA) [9]
10. Samantha STOSUR (AUS) [10]
11. Andrea PETKOVIC (GER) [11]
12. Svetlana KUZNETSOVA (RUS) [12]
13. Agnieszka RADWANSKA (POL) [13]
14. Anastasia PAVLYUCHENKOVA (RUS) [14]
15. Jelena JANKOVIC (SRB) [15]
16. Julia GOERGES (GER) [16]
17. Kaia KANEPI (EST) [17]
18. Ana IVANOVIC (SRB) [18]
19. Yanina WICKMAYER (BEL) [19]
20. Shuai PENG (CHN) [20]
21. Flavia PENNETTA (ITA) [21]
22. Shahar PEER (ISR) [22]
23. Venus WILLIAMS (USA) [23]
24. Dominika CIBULKOVA (SVK) [24]
25. Daniela HANTUCHOVA (SVK) [25]
26. Maria KIRILENKO (RUS) [26]
27. Jarmila GAJDOSOVA (AUS) [27]
28. Ekaterina MAKAROVA (RUS) [28]
29. Roberta VINCI (ITA) [29]
30. Bethanie MATTEK-SANDS (USA) [30]
31. Lucie SAFAROVA (CZE) [31]
32. Tsvetana PIRONKOVA (BUL) [32]

The shocker is the removal of Kim Clijsters, who withdrew from the tournament with a re-injured ankle this morning. The 2010 defending champion Serena was seeded #8 but moved up to #7, despite her WTA #26 ranking. Venus, who is a 5-time champion was seeded #23 despite her WTA #33 ranking. This is an absolute travesty of a seeding for Venus. One year ago Serena was ranked #1 in the world and Venus was ranked #2 but the two have played only a handful of tournaments combined since then (Serena hasn't played at all).

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Clijsters Upset! Sharapova Escapes

Kim Clijsters lost her second round match at Roland Garros to Arantxa Rus

World #2 Kim Clijsters held two match points up a set and 5-2 but somehow managed to lose her second round match to lefty Arantxa Rus of the Netherlands 3-6 7-5 6-1 to end her 15-match winning streak at the majors. Clijsters had won the 2010 US Open and the 2011 Australian Open and was a favorite to win in Paris.

Maria Sharapova was down a set and 4-1 (two(!) breaks) against the youngest player in the draw, 17-year-old Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia when suddenly the youngster got tight and Sharapova kept the ball in the court and then steamrolled the next 11games to close out the match 3-6 6-4 6-0.

On the men's side Rafael Nadal saved 8 set points against handsome countryman Pablo Andujar to come back from 1-5 down in the 3rd set to close out the match 7-5 6-3 7-6(4). Also in that half of the draw Andy Murray, Robin Soderling and Fernando Verdasco all won their second round matches.  Nadal got a break when Nikolay Davydenko lost to Croatian qualifier  Antonio Veic 6-1 in the fifth. Davydenko is one of the few players on the tour to hold a career head-to-head advantage on the World #1 (6-4 overall but 0-3 on clay). It's likely that Nadal will not be challenged until he plays the winner of Verdasco/Ljubicic in the 3rd round and then a potential Soderling quarterfinal.

Kvitova Beats Clijsters To Win Open Gaz de France Title

Petra Kvitova stunned new World #1 Kim Clijsters 6-3 6-4 to win the Open Gaz de France title, the third WTA Tour title of her career. Clijsters was playing in her 5th consecutive final, and won 3 of them, losing to Li Na in Sydney and Kvitova in Paris. Kvitova is the top-ranked left-handed player on the tour and will rise to #14 in the World on Tuesday; she has won 16 of 17 matches played in 2011. Kvitova, 20, was the WTA Tour's Newcomer of the Year last year and is most well-known among tennis fans for her 2010 Wimbledon semifinal loss to Serena Williams. The 13-time major champion is slated to return to the court by playing an  exhibition against Maria Sharapova on March 4.

Clijsters Is New #1, Faces Kvitova in Open Gaz de France Final

Reigning Australian Open and U.S. Open champion Kim Clijsters has regained the #1 ranking for the first time since her August 2009 return to the WTA Tour. Clijsters will replace Caroline Wozniacki when the rankings are released on Monday. Clijsters barely won her first match as World #1, beating Kaia Kanepi 6-1 7-5 in the semifinals of the Open Gaz de France semifinals and will face 2011 Australian Open quarterfinalist Petra Kvitova (who dismissed Bethanie Mattek-Sands 6-2 6-0) in the final on Sunday.

Last year's tournament was won by Elena Dementieva over Lucie Safarova in one of the best women's tennis matches of the year. It would be the Russian's last tour title since she retired from tennis later in 2010.

AUS OPEN 2011: Clijsters Wins 4th Major Title

AFP PHOTO / GREG WOOD

AFP PHOTO / HO / FIONA HAMILTON 

As I predicted, Kim Clijsters of Belgium defeated Li Na of China in the 2011 Australian Open women's final in Melbourne 3-6 6-3 6-3 to win her first Australian Open title and fourth major title overall. Clijsters even her career record in finals to 4-all, and improved her post-retirement record to 3-0 in finals. By winning 4 majors, she moved ahead of Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati and Maria Sharapova. Li Na made history as the first person from Asia, and particular China, to reach a Grand Slam final.

The match ended up being much more competitive than most observers predicted, with Li dropping the first 8 consecutive points but breaking back repeatedly and going for her shots with comparable power to Clijsters. Clijsters repeatedly was unable to consolidate breaks of Li's serve. The Chinese player was able to take the first set by winning the last three games convincingly. Unfortunately, she lost her serve immediately at the start of the second set (in fact she lost her first service game in every set she played in the final) but then was able to break back again to even the score. This began a rash of service breaks which by the conclusion of the 9 game second set ended up being a majority of the service games (5). The third set began with a strong hold by Clijsters at love, followed by another break of Li's serve. The Chinese player was able to break back again but was unable to hold her service game again and fell back 1-3 in the deciding set. At this point Li started to look tired and made a series of forehand errors to allow Clijsters to go up 4-1 via another hold of serve by the Belgian. Li falls down 15-30 in her service game but through an important line call challenge is able to get to 30-30 and eventually hold to deny Clisters a second "insurance" break. Clijsters holds serve again easily to go up 5-2 and all signs seem to indicate the match will soon be over. However, Li holds serve concincingly at 15, forcing Clijsters to serve for the championship, which she does with three first serves and three return of service return winners, followed by a Li error giving Clijsters her first Australian Open title.

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Final Preview

Here are my predictions for the 2011 Australian Open women's final. I previously made predictions for the women's semifinals (2 of 2) and women's quarterfinals (3 of 4).

Li Na CHN (9) vs. Kim Clijsters BEL (3). This is a historic match: the first time a player from Asia has competed for a major title. There are potentially 1.3 billion people in China who will be personally invested in the result of this match and learn the name of their compatriot: Li Na. In some sense this can be considered performance pressure that no other player has ever experienced. However, Li is used to being a trailblazer so perhaps she will not be overly affected. Clijsters is in her 8th career major final (losing the first four and winning the last three!) and her second consecutive major final following her 2010 US Open title. The two have played 6 times, with Clijsters winning 4 times, including twice in grand slams. However, Li Na won the last match they played, the final of the Sydney International, exactly two weeks to the day the 2011 Australian Open women's final will be completed. Li Na made history there by becoming the first Chinese player to win a top Tier title on the women's tour; she beat Clijsters 7-6(3) 6-3 despite the fact that the Belgian was up 5-0 in the first set.

I find it hard to believe that Clijsters will blow a lead of 5-0 in the final (and hard to believe that Li Na will give up such a huge lead also). The two play similar styles but the 3-time US Champion does everything better than the 1st-time finalist. They both have huge forehands, dangerous backhands and are excellent movers. Additionally, Clijsters is quite good at the net (although Li is not afraid of approaching the net she is not as effective when she gets there) and has a serve that should win her some free points. 

The only hope for Li is if Clijsters goes through one of her patches of bad play, or for some reason gets nervous as she nears winning her first major title outside of New York.

PREDICTION: Clijsters.

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Semifinals Review

Li Na CHN (9) d. Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1)  3-6 7-5 6-3. Li Na reached her first Australian Open final by continuing to go for her shots despite being a set and a break down. She got in that predicament by repeatedly misfiring on her powerful forehand, making many more errors than winners on that wing.  Wozniacki had a match point on her serve at 5-4, 40-30 but Li dismissed it with forehand down-the-line winner. She followed that up by winning a 20-plus stroke rally to earn a breakpoint which she won with a cross-court winner. Li held her serve at love and when Wozniacki served at 5-6 to earn a tiebreaker she lost her serve and the second set by double faulting on Li's second set point. In the third set Li was broken in the third game but broke back at love immediately and held serve easily to go up 3-2. The two then traded breaks and when Wozniacki served at 3-4 she used her last challenge a winner by Li that ave the Chinese player a break point. The two then played a very long point which ended with a Wozniacki error into the net, giving Li the break and the chance to serve out the match. Li wins the first two points of the game and then loses the next two on bad errors to reach 30-all. Li wins the next rally with and on her first match point Wozniacki hits the ball wide at the end of a rally to lose the match. Li makes history as the first woman or man from Asia to reach a Grand Slam final!

 Kim Clijsters BEL (3) d. Vera Zvonareva RUS (2) 6-3 6-3. Two words is all it takes to describe Clijsters play in this match: "brutally efficient." Zvonareva did not play badly, but Clijsters has the fire power to overwhelm Zvonareva's excellent defensive skills and did so by using patience and controlled aggression. Zvonareva started the match with a break of Clijsters serve but once Clijsters immediately broke back in the second game she was never in any real danger of losing.

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the Australian Open this year. I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) vs. Li Na CHN (9). Wozniacki is the #1 ranked player in the world despite not having reached a single major final in 2010 and only once in her brief career (2009 US Open). The nubile, flaxen-haired 20-year-old from Denmark is sometimes called the "Golden Retriever" by some tennis observers due to her style of play resembling a human backboard. Wozniacki is in her first Australian Open semifinal while her opponent has reached this far in the tournament for the second consecutive year. In fact Li has won the first 10 matches she has played in 2011 and is surfing  a wave of confidence while Wozniacki is hearing an increasingly louder chorus of whispers doubting her ability to ever win a major title. Li on the other hand is hearing the call of history: can she become the first player from China to compete for (and win) a major title, especially the grand slam of Asia/Pacific, the Australian Open? I say, yes, and probably this  week. The match-up between the two players is interesting: Li has great power on both wings and is also an excellent mover; Wozniacki has the ability to frustrate her opponents by forcing them to "win" a point several times through relentless defense. Head-to-head Li leads 2-1 and beat Wozniacki in the fourth round here last year in straight sets as well as a few weeks before in Sydney. A year later I see no reason why the result should be any different. PREDICTION: Li.

Vera Zvonareva RUS (2) Petra Kvitova CZE (25) vs. Kim Clijsters BEL (3). I expected Kvitova to come through this match just like she had against #5 Samantha Stosur whom she dismissed easily in straight sets in front of a hometown crowd. However, Zvonareva showed incredible defense and consistency to eliminate the Czech lefty 6-2 6-4. Zvonareva has always been one of my favorite players to watch and her rise to the #2 ranking in the world via two consecutive major final finishes is a delight. Clijsters has been the clear favorite to win this year's title since Serena Willliams announced she would not be defending her 2010 Australian Open title. She is the only player of the final four remaining in the tournament who has won a major title; Clijsters has 3 US Open titles (2005, 2009, 2010). With Elena Dementieva's retirement Zvonareva is probably the best player on tour not to have won a major. Head-to-head Clijsters leads 6-3 but 5 of these wins were before Clijsters' "retirement" in May 2007. The two played 4 times in 2010 and Zvonareva won 3 of those matches, losing the most important one in a rout: the 2010 US Open women's final (6-1 6-2). None of those matches were finals, where the mental pressure is a larger factor and this poses a disadvantage to the more mentally fragile player. In a semifinal the mental pressure is less which should help Vera play some of her best tennis. It is also true that Clijsters does have a tendency to go through bad patches which complicates what should be easy wins. I suspect something like that will happen in this match as well, but in the end, Clijsters will find a way to prevail. PREDICTION: Clijsters.

Justine Henin Retires From Tennis (Again)

On Wednesday, 7-time major champion Justine Henin announced her retirement from tennis for the second time. Henin had previously retired on May 14, 2008 but announced the end of her retirement 18 months later on Septermber 22, 2009. Suspicious tennis fans noted that the duration of her "retirement" closely matched the duration of a fine would receive for a doping violation. That being said, Justine has never failed a drug test as far as I know.

From USA Today:

"The past few weeks, there was a little bit more pain every day, but I thought my willpower would prevail. Today, the tests and my doctors are adamant," Henin said.

She was ranked No. 1 when she abruptly announced her retirement in 2008, only to return 20 months later and reach last year's Australian Open final. She partially tore a ligament in the elbow in a tumble at Wimbledon last year and hasn't been the same since.

"It is clear now that I have to accept that my career ends for good," said Henin, currently ranked No. 13. "Even if it is hard, very hard, at a time when I came back with enormous fighting spirit."

Somehow I think that her Belgian compatriot will not be following her example. Wouldn't it be something if Kim Clijsters could match Justine's 7 majors before her retirement next year?

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the Australian Open this year.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova RUS (23) Francesca Schiavone ITA (6). After the historic marathon match between Svetlana Kuznetsova and Francesca Schivaone, most observers expected the quarterfinal involving the "winner" to be scheduled last in order to increase the likelihood of a competitive match. Unfortunately, the powers that be have decided that the World #1's quarterfinal would not be a featured night match, opting for a women's doubles quarterfinal instead. There are very few men's 5-set matches that have lasted the 4-hours and 44 minutes of "Franlana." After the titanic first round match between David Nalbandian and Lleyton Hewitt was won by the Argentine, it resulted in the "winner" retiring meekly after playing about a set and a half of tennis 48 hours later. Schiavone finished her match around 8:05pm on Sunday and is scheduled to play her match against Wozniacki on Rod Laver Arena following the all-Swiss Federer-Wawrinka quarterfinal which will not be before 12:30pm on Tuesday. That is much less than 48 hours of recovery time. I know that the Italian has already proved that "Impossible is Nothing" with her incredible 2010 French Open win but I think that asking her to be 100% (even 50%) for her match with Wozniacki less than 48 hours after playing the longest women's grand slam match in history is a hill too high for even this dynamic athlete to climb. PREDICTION: Wozniacki in 2 sets.

Maria Sharapova RUS (14) Andrea Petkovic GER (30) vs Li Na CHN (9) Victoria Azarenka BLR (8). I really like the play of the veteran Chinese player (so much so I named my dog after her!) and am very excited that she is playing even better than last year, where she reached the semifinals of this tournament, losing to the eventual winner Serena Williams. Li Na has been a trailblazing icon of Chinese tennis; she is the first Chinese player to reach the Top 50, Top 40, Top 30, Top 20, Top 10 and to win a Tier 1 title (when she defeated Kim Clijsters in Brisbane earlier this year). She dismissed what some people thought was a legitimate contender to win the title in Victoria Azarenka in straight sets. Li has excellent power on both wings and is currently brimming with confidence since she is undefeated so far in 2011. Petkovic is no slouch and has improved upon her best result in a major (4th Round at the 2010 U.S. Open) at this year's 2011 Australian Open. I think it is highly unlikely she will prevent Li Na from attempting to improve her best result in a major and become the first Chinese player to reach a major final. PREDICTION: Li in 2 sets.

Agnieszka Radwanska POL (12) vs. Kim Clijsters BEL (3).  Kim Clijsters is simply the best player on hard courts still left in the tournament, as evidenced by her three consecutive US Open titles. She does have a tendency to go off sometimes, and can get frustrated by counter-punchers. She had a surprisingly tight match with the diminutive Alize Cornet of France in the third round. Aggie Radwanska is the epitome of the kind of player who could give Clijsters fits, since she plays a game resembling the late, little lamented Martina Hingis. Clijsters had a pretty good record against Hingis and the one time she played Radwanska (more than 5 years ago) she won that match as well. I suspect this match will either be a 2-set blowout or a seesaw 3-setter where none of the individual sets are very close. PREDICTION: Clijsters in 3 sets.

Samantha Stosur AUS (5) Petra Kvitova CZE (25) vs. Vera Zvonareva RUS (2).  Petra Kvitova is the most dangerous player in the draw. She is a very confident, powerful lefty with tremendous power on both wings and she's an excellent mover with a good serve. She's also undefeated for 2011; in fact she's only lost one set all tournament, to the hard-hitting and crafty Italian Flavia Pennetta. Kvitova dismissed the  host country's great hope Samantha Stosur in straight sets with no regard for the audience.Vera Zvonareva has defeated every player she has faced in her half of the draw in the last two majors she has played (Wimbledon 2010 and US Open 2010) and has done an admirable job of turning around her reputation as "head case" by embodying consistency. But when consistency meets power, I usually put my money on power. Zvonareva has also lost only one set so far in the tournament (to hard-hitting young Serb Bojana Jovanovski)  and almost lost another one to the hard-hitting lefty Lucie Safarova from the Czech Republic. I'm pretty sure that streak will end when she faces an even harder hitting lefty Czech player. PREDICTION: Kvitova in 3 sets.