Celebrity Friday: Li Na Now World's Richest Female Athlete

Li Na, the 2011 French Open champion and 2011 Australian Open finalist, has supplanted 2011 Wimbledon finalist Maria Sharapova as the player with the most lucrative endorsement contracts, and is now considered to be the most highly paid female athlete in the world.

News reports say that Li has signed $42 million dollars in endorsement contracts, compared to the $24 million that Sharapova has. But, Sharapova's total is her annual haul last year, while Li's total is the amount she will earn in the next three years. For Li to really overtake Sharapova the Russian player would have to have some of her endorsement contracts expire and not be replaced (which frankly, is likely).

It will be interesting to see if Petra Kvitova is able to cash in on her 2011 Wimbledon victory.

AUS OPEN 2011: Men's Final Preview

Here is my prediction for the 2011 Australian Open men's final. I previously predicted the men's semifinals (2 of 2 correctly) and the men's quarterfinals (3 of 4 correctly). I also have made a prediction for the women's final. 

Andy Murray GBR (5) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). This is not the final everyone expected (or wanted) to see this year. However, everyone has been predicting for years that eventually these two would be competing for major titles. Djokovic and Murray were born one week apart in May 1987 and the two were on the junior circuit contemporaneously, with Murray arguably having the more successful career (winning the 2004 US Open junior title) then. However, Djokovic has had the more successful career on the adult tour so far, winning the 2008 Australian Open and losing two US Open finals (2007 to Roger Federer, 2010 to Rafael Nadal). Murray has only been to two major finals, losing to Federer both times (2008 US Open and 2010 Australian Open). The two have the same number of Masters Series titles (six), with Djokovic's including the end-of-season Masters Cup title in 2008. Djokovic has 18 ATP Tour titles overall to Murray's 16. They have played each other 7 times, with Djokovic leading 4-3 in the career head-to-head. The two times they played in finals, Murray has won, but the last time they played each other was in March 2009. They have split 3-3 the 6 hard court matches they have competed.

Okay, so that is how the two have played against each other in the past, but the question everyone wants answered is how will they play against each other in their next match, the 2011 Australian Open men's final? Well, right now Djokovic's results in the tournament to date indicate he has been playing better tennis. His stunning straight-sets dismissal of defending champion Roger Federer in the semifinals demonstrated his ability to take his tennis to stratospheric levels. Similarly, Murray's two 4-set wins in the quarterfinal (over Aleksandr Dolgopolov) and semifinal (over David Ferrer) are indications of the opposite. There's no question that Djokovic will pose much more probing questions to Murray than any of his previous opponents, and the Scot has already illustrated that his games sometimes gets wobbly in those situations (although ultimately he did prevail).

I am not one of the naysayers that says that Murray will never win a major title, (he has too many outstanding aspects of his game not breakthrough sometime) however I am fairly confident  he will not win this one.

PREDICTION: Djokovic (in 4 sets).

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Final Preview

Here are my predictions for the 2011 Australian Open women's final. I previously made predictions for the women's semifinals (2 of 2) and women's quarterfinals (3 of 4).

Li Na CHN (9) vs. Kim Clijsters BEL (3). This is a historic match: the first time a player from Asia has competed for a major title. There are potentially 1.3 billion people in China who will be personally invested in the result of this match and learn the name of their compatriot: Li Na. In some sense this can be considered performance pressure that no other player has ever experienced. However, Li is used to being a trailblazer so perhaps she will not be overly affected. Clijsters is in her 8th career major final (losing the first four and winning the last three!) and her second consecutive major final following her 2010 US Open title. The two have played 6 times, with Clijsters winning 4 times, including twice in grand slams. However, Li Na won the last match they played, the final of the Sydney International, exactly two weeks to the day the 2011 Australian Open women's final will be completed. Li Na made history there by becoming the first Chinese player to win a top Tier title on the women's tour; she beat Clijsters 7-6(3) 6-3 despite the fact that the Belgian was up 5-0 in the first set.

I find it hard to believe that Clijsters will blow a lead of 5-0 in the final (and hard to believe that Li Na will give up such a huge lead also). The two play similar styles but the 3-time US Champion does everything better than the 1st-time finalist. They both have huge forehands, dangerous backhands and are excellent movers. Additionally, Clijsters is quite good at the net (although Li is not afraid of approaching the net she is not as effective when she gets there) and has a serve that should win her some free points. 

The only hope for Li is if Clijsters goes through one of her patches of bad play, or for some reason gets nervous as she nears winning her first major title outside of New York.

PREDICTION: Clijsters.

AUS OPEN 2011: Djokovic Handily Beats Federer 76(3) 75 64

Is the Federer-Nadal over? For only the second time in three years, neither Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will be playing for a major title. Repeating his performance in 2008, Novak Djokovic defeated Roger Federer, this time 7-6(3) 7-5 6-4, in the semi-finals of the Australian Open. Nadal and Federer have won the last 21 of 23 major titles. 

In two history-making consecutive days, Nadal was dismissed in straight sets by the excellent play of David Ferrer in the last quarterfinal match of the 2011 Australian Open, followed by Djokovic essentially outplaying Federer in straight sets in the first semifinal.

For the first time since this point in time in 2003, Roger Federer is not the current holder of a major title.

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Semifinals Review

Li Na CHN (9) d. Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1)  3-6 7-5 6-3. Li Na reached her first Australian Open final by continuing to go for her shots despite being a set and a break down. She got in that predicament by repeatedly misfiring on her powerful forehand, making many more errors than winners on that wing.  Wozniacki had a match point on her serve at 5-4, 40-30 but Li dismissed it with forehand down-the-line winner. She followed that up by winning a 20-plus stroke rally to earn a breakpoint which she won with a cross-court winner. Li held her serve at love and when Wozniacki served at 5-6 to earn a tiebreaker she lost her serve and the second set by double faulting on Li's second set point. In the third set Li was broken in the third game but broke back at love immediately and held serve easily to go up 3-2. The two then traded breaks and when Wozniacki served at 3-4 she used her last challenge a winner by Li that ave the Chinese player a break point. The two then played a very long point which ended with a Wozniacki error into the net, giving Li the break and the chance to serve out the match. Li wins the first two points of the game and then loses the next two on bad errors to reach 30-all. Li wins the next rally with and on her first match point Wozniacki hits the ball wide at the end of a rally to lose the match. Li makes history as the first woman or man from Asia to reach a Grand Slam final!

 Kim Clijsters BEL (3) d. Vera Zvonareva RUS (2) 6-3 6-3. Two words is all it takes to describe Clijsters play in this match: "brutally efficient." Zvonareva did not play badly, but Clijsters has the fire power to overwhelm Zvonareva's excellent defensive skills and did so by using patience and controlled aggression. Zvonareva started the match with a break of Clijsters serve but once Clijsters immediately broke back in the second game she was never in any real danger of losing.

AUS OPEN 2011: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the 2011 Australian Open men's semifinals. I had previously correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. You can also see my predictions for the women's semifinals and women's quarterfinals (3 of 4 right).

Rafael Nadal ESP (1)  David Ferrer ESP (7) vs. Andy Murray GBR (5). Everyone expected a Murray-Nadal semifinal, and many many tennis fans were salivating at the prospect of seeing a match of the same caliber as their superlative ATP World Tour Championships semifinal in London. Murray did his piece first, by dispatching the extremely talented Aleksandr Dolgopolov of Ukraine who had eliminated Robin Soderling and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 5-set matches by coming from behind to win those contests. Dolgopolov plays in an unorthodox fashion, with quick, whip-like strokes, but this generates tremendous (and surprising) power on both wings; he also has a truly unusual serve which allows him to get several free points, even from someone as good at returning serve as Andy Murray. In the first set the younger player had 12 aces to Murray's two and was hitting winners into both corners of the court. Essentially, he was "out-Murraying" Murray. Unfortunately for Dolgopolov his quirky style is sometimes combined with an almost laissez-faire approach to finishing a point which resulted in errors instead of winners on balls that MadProfessah could have put away. These lapses enabled Murray to eke out the first set 7-5 (after blowing a 4-1 lead). The second set featured tremendous serving from Murray, losing only two points on his serve for a 6-3 win. The third set Murray should have closed out the match, but Dogopolov was able to climb back to win the 3rd in a tiebreaker 7-3 after horrendous play by Murray in the decider. The final set was never much in doubt with Murray winning the first fourteen points and the Dogopolov errors accumulating until he was at a total of 77 for the match compared to a showy 57 winners. Murray had a more sedate 33 winners and 34 errors and won the final set 6-3. The drama of the Murray-Dolgopolov quarterfinal was quickly eclipsed when the two Spaniards took the court. After a quick service hold by Ferrer to start the match, Nadal's first service game lasted 17 minutes and consisted of 22 points with 7 deuces. Ferrer was playing very aggressively, especially with his forehand and service return; he was running down shots which would have been winners against almost anyone else. Eventually Ferrer was able to get the break, which he then immediately gave back through strong play by Nadal. On the changeover it became clear something was very wrong with Nadal, and he left the court to  take an injury time out and receive treatment. It looked very much like he would retire at various points in the first set after that. Amazingly he had retired in a math played exactly a year before, in the men's quarterfinal of 2010 against Murray, also played on Australia Day, January 26. However, Nadal soldiered on and Ferrer continued his style of aggressive play, taking advantage of Nadal's clearly limited movement to his forehand side (Nadal's left thigh was heavily strapped) and maintained his composure to complete the stunning 6-4 6-2 6-3 straight sets win over the defending Roland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open champion. Rafa's quest to be the first man in a generation (or two) to simultaneously hold all 4 major titles was over. The reason I have spent so much time reviewing the quarterfinal matches instead of previewing the semifinal match is because there is not much to say. Head-to-head Ferrer and Murray have met 5 times, (never in a Grand Slam) with Murray winning all their hard court matches relatively easily and Ferrer winning the clay court matches. Murray was able to reach the final last year, and he is playing even better one year later. Ferrer is also playing better, but, barring an injury, the result of their next hard court match will not be any different from the other three they have played before. PREDICTION: Murray in 4 sets. 

Roger Federer SUI (2). vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). This semifinal match-up is a reprise of the four celebrated grand slam semifinals these two have competed: the 2010 US Open semifinal won by Djokovic after saving two match points in the 5th set; the 2009 US Open semifinal won by Federer which featured the amazing tweener shot by the Swiss great on the penultimate point of the match; the 2008 US Open semifinal won in straight sets by Federer despite trailing in the first two; and the 2008 Australian Open semifinal won by Djokovic on his way to winning his first major title.  So, despite Federer's impressive 13-6 head-to-head edge overall, the two have actually split the four hard-court major semifinals they have played in their careers. Bizarrely, they have never played at Wimbledon or at Roland Garros. It should be noted that Federer has won the last three times they have played, and has apparently taken energy from his defeat in New York last year. Djokovic is also playing inspired tennis, having achieved one of his career goals by anchoring his country to a Davis Cup title (something Federer has not done despite having someone as talented as Stan Wawrinka on his team). Of the four players left remaining in the tournament, Djokovic and Murray have both only dropped one tie-break set each. Djokovic in particular has looked the most impressive, taking out the #6 (Tomas Berdych), #14(Nicolas Almagro) and #29 seeds. 
The highest seed that Federer has had to face was Wawrinka at #19 but Gilles Simon in the first round was playing like a Top 10 player when he stretched the World #2 to 5 sets. To determine my pick, I'm going to try an do some math. There are three possibilities, which I will assume are equally likely to occur (3-set, 4-set and 5-set match with 33% probabilities). If only 3 sets of tennis are played I give Federer a 25-8 edge. In a 4-set match I give Djokovic a 17-16 edge. In a 5-set match I give Djokovic a 25-8 edge. So overall, Djokovic has a 50-49 edge. I split the last point equally and this gets Djokovic slightly ahead to reach his second Australian Open final, and second consecutive major final.  PREDICTION: Djokovic (has a 50.5% chance to win). 

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the Australian Open this year. I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) vs. Li Na CHN (9). Wozniacki is the #1 ranked player in the world despite not having reached a single major final in 2010 and only once in her brief career (2009 US Open). The nubile, flaxen-haired 20-year-old from Denmark is sometimes called the "Golden Retriever" by some tennis observers due to her style of play resembling a human backboard. Wozniacki is in her first Australian Open semifinal while her opponent has reached this far in the tournament for the second consecutive year. In fact Li has won the first 10 matches she has played in 2011 and is surfing  a wave of confidence while Wozniacki is hearing an increasingly louder chorus of whispers doubting her ability to ever win a major title. Li on the other hand is hearing the call of history: can she become the first player from China to compete for (and win) a major title, especially the grand slam of Asia/Pacific, the Australian Open? I say, yes, and probably this  week. The match-up between the two players is interesting: Li has great power on both wings and is also an excellent mover; Wozniacki has the ability to frustrate her opponents by forcing them to "win" a point several times through relentless defense. Head-to-head Li leads 2-1 and beat Wozniacki in the fourth round here last year in straight sets as well as a few weeks before in Sydney. A year later I see no reason why the result should be any different. PREDICTION: Li.

Vera Zvonareva RUS (2) Petra Kvitova CZE (25) vs. Kim Clijsters BEL (3). I expected Kvitova to come through this match just like she had against #5 Samantha Stosur whom she dismissed easily in straight sets in front of a hometown crowd. However, Zvonareva showed incredible defense and consistency to eliminate the Czech lefty 6-2 6-4. Zvonareva has always been one of my favorite players to watch and her rise to the #2 ranking in the world via two consecutive major final finishes is a delight. Clijsters has been the clear favorite to win this year's title since Serena Willliams announced she would not be defending her 2010 Australian Open title. She is the only player of the final four remaining in the tournament who has won a major title; Clijsters has 3 US Open titles (2005, 2009, 2010). With Elena Dementieva's retirement Zvonareva is probably the best player on tour not to have won a major. Head-to-head Clijsters leads 6-3 but 5 of these wins were before Clijsters' "retirement" in May 2007. The two played 4 times in 2010 and Zvonareva won 3 of those matches, losing the most important one in a rout: the 2010 US Open women's final (6-1 6-2). None of those matches were finals, where the mental pressure is a larger factor and this poses a disadvantage to the more mentally fragile player. In a semifinal the mental pressure is less which should help Vera play some of her best tennis. It is also true that Clijsters does have a tendency to go through bad patches which complicates what should be easy wins. I suspect something like that will happen in this match as well, but in the end, Clijsters will find a way to prevail. PREDICTION: Clijsters.

AUS OPEN 2011: Nadal Eliminated By Ferrer!

World #1 Rafael Nadal's quest for the "Rafa slam" is over; he was bounced from the 2011 Australian Open by David Ferrer 6-4 6-2 6-3 in the men's quarterfinals exactly one year to the day he retired from the 2010 Australian Open against Andy Murray.

During Nadal's first service game, which lasted 17 minutes and consisted of 22 points, Nadal injured himself (on the way to being broken) and although he broke back immediately he called for the trainer and left the court at 1-2.

Remaining in the tournament are defending champion Roger Federer who faces 2010 US Open finalist Novak Djokovic on Thursday and 2010 Australian Open finalist Andy Murray who will face Ferrer on Friday.

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the Australian Open this year.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova RUS (23) Francesca Schiavone ITA (6). After the historic marathon match between Svetlana Kuznetsova and Francesca Schivaone, most observers expected the quarterfinal involving the "winner" to be scheduled last in order to increase the likelihood of a competitive match. Unfortunately, the powers that be have decided that the World #1's quarterfinal would not be a featured night match, opting for a women's doubles quarterfinal instead. There are very few men's 5-set matches that have lasted the 4-hours and 44 minutes of "Franlana." After the titanic first round match between David Nalbandian and Lleyton Hewitt was won by the Argentine, it resulted in the "winner" retiring meekly after playing about a set and a half of tennis 48 hours later. Schiavone finished her match around 8:05pm on Sunday and is scheduled to play her match against Wozniacki on Rod Laver Arena following the all-Swiss Federer-Wawrinka quarterfinal which will not be before 12:30pm on Tuesday. That is much less than 48 hours of recovery time. I know that the Italian has already proved that "Impossible is Nothing" with her incredible 2010 French Open win but I think that asking her to be 100% (even 50%) for her match with Wozniacki less than 48 hours after playing the longest women's grand slam match in history is a hill too high for even this dynamic athlete to climb. PREDICTION: Wozniacki in 2 sets.

Maria Sharapova RUS (14) Andrea Petkovic GER (30) vs Li Na CHN (9) Victoria Azarenka BLR (8). I really like the play of the veteran Chinese player (so much so I named my dog after her!) and am very excited that she is playing even better than last year, where she reached the semifinals of this tournament, losing to the eventual winner Serena Williams. Li Na has been a trailblazing icon of Chinese tennis; she is the first Chinese player to reach the Top 50, Top 40, Top 30, Top 20, Top 10 and to win a Tier 1 title (when she defeated Kim Clijsters in Brisbane earlier this year). She dismissed what some people thought was a legitimate contender to win the title in Victoria Azarenka in straight sets. Li has excellent power on both wings and is currently brimming with confidence since she is undefeated so far in 2011. Petkovic is no slouch and has improved upon her best result in a major (4th Round at the 2010 U.S. Open) at this year's 2011 Australian Open. I think it is highly unlikely she will prevent Li Na from attempting to improve her best result in a major and become the first Chinese player to reach a major final. PREDICTION: Li in 2 sets.

Agnieszka Radwanska POL (12) vs. Kim Clijsters BEL (3).  Kim Clijsters is simply the best player on hard courts still left in the tournament, as evidenced by her three consecutive US Open titles. She does have a tendency to go off sometimes, and can get frustrated by counter-punchers. She had a surprisingly tight match with the diminutive Alize Cornet of France in the third round. Aggie Radwanska is the epitome of the kind of player who could give Clijsters fits, since she plays a game resembling the late, little lamented Martina Hingis. Clijsters had a pretty good record against Hingis and the one time she played Radwanska (more than 5 years ago) she won that match as well. I suspect this match will either be a 2-set blowout or a seesaw 3-setter where none of the individual sets are very close. PREDICTION: Clijsters in 3 sets.

Samantha Stosur AUS (5) Petra Kvitova CZE (25) vs. Vera Zvonareva RUS (2).  Petra Kvitova is the most dangerous player in the draw. She is a very confident, powerful lefty with tremendous power on both wings and she's an excellent mover with a good serve. She's also undefeated for 2011; in fact she's only lost one set all tournament, to the hard-hitting and crafty Italian Flavia Pennetta. Kvitova dismissed the  host country's great hope Samantha Stosur in straight sets with no regard for the audience.Vera Zvonareva has defeated every player she has faced in her half of the draw in the last two majors she has played (Wimbledon 2010 and US Open 2010) and has done an admirable job of turning around her reputation as "head case" by embodying consistency. But when consistency meets power, I usually put my money on power. Zvonareva has also lost only one set so far in the tournament (to hard-hitting young Serb Bojana Jovanovski)  and almost lost another one to the hard-hitting lefty Lucie Safarova from the Czech Republic. I'm pretty sure that streak will end when she faces an even harder hitting lefty Czech player. PREDICTION: Kvitova in 3 sets.