WIMBLEDON 2011:Williamses, Top 4 Men, Delpo In To R16

Novak Djokovic won a tension-filled 3rd round
4-set match against Marcos Baghdatis

Wimbledon is the only major which does not generally have play on the "middle" Sunday. So, after Saturday's play on Day 6, here is an update.

The Top 4 players in the world, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are all through to the round of 16 at the 2011 Wimbledon Championships. World #5 Robin Soderling  and World #8 Andy Roddick have been upset. #6 seed Tomas Berdych and #7 seed David Ferrer are still in the tournament, as is 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro.


World #1 Caroline Wozniacki, #4 seed Victoria Azarenka, #5 Maria Sharapova, #7 Serena Williams, #8 Petra Kvitova and #9 Marion Bartoli are all in the round of 16. 2010 Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva and 2011 French Open finalist Francesca Schiavone both lost on Day 6.

Zvonareva Outlasts Serena At Eastbourne In 3-hour Slugfest

2010 Wimbledon champion Serena Williams lost in her second match off after nearly a year off to World #3 and 2010 Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva in a tough 3 hour, 14 minute match 3-6 7-6(5) 7-5 at the Aegon International at Eastbourne. Serena did well, refusing to concede despite being down 2-5 in the 3rd set and pulling even to 5-all only to lose the last two games of the set and the match.Venus Williams went through to the Eastbourne quarterfinals with a 6-3 6-2 win over Ana Ivanovic who has been playing some good grass court tennis recently.

AUS OPEN 2011: Clijsters Wins 4th Major Title

AFP PHOTO / GREG WOOD

AFP PHOTO / HO / FIONA HAMILTON 

As I predicted, Kim Clijsters of Belgium defeated Li Na of China in the 2011 Australian Open women's final in Melbourne 3-6 6-3 6-3 to win her first Australian Open title and fourth major title overall. Clijsters even her career record in finals to 4-all, and improved her post-retirement record to 3-0 in finals. By winning 4 majors, she moved ahead of Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati and Maria Sharapova. Li Na made history as the first person from Asia, and particular China, to reach a Grand Slam final.

The match ended up being much more competitive than most observers predicted, with Li dropping the first 8 consecutive points but breaking back repeatedly and going for her shots with comparable power to Clijsters. Clijsters repeatedly was unable to consolidate breaks of Li's serve. The Chinese player was able to take the first set by winning the last three games convincingly. Unfortunately, she lost her serve immediately at the start of the second set (in fact she lost her first service game in every set she played in the final) but then was able to break back again to even the score. This began a rash of service breaks which by the conclusion of the 9 game second set ended up being a majority of the service games (5). The third set began with a strong hold by Clijsters at love, followed by another break of Li's serve. The Chinese player was able to break back again but was unable to hold her service game again and fell back 1-3 in the deciding set. At this point Li started to look tired and made a series of forehand errors to allow Clijsters to go up 4-1 via another hold of serve by the Belgian. Li falls down 15-30 in her service game but through an important line call challenge is able to get to 30-30 and eventually hold to deny Clisters a second "insurance" break. Clijsters holds serve again easily to go up 5-2 and all signs seem to indicate the match will soon be over. However, Li holds serve concincingly at 15, forcing Clijsters to serve for the championship, which she does with three first serves and three return of service return winners, followed by a Li error giving Clijsters her first Australian Open title.

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Final Preview

Here are my predictions for the 2011 Australian Open women's final. I previously made predictions for the women's semifinals (2 of 2) and women's quarterfinals (3 of 4).

Li Na CHN (9) vs. Kim Clijsters BEL (3). This is a historic match: the first time a player from Asia has competed for a major title. There are potentially 1.3 billion people in China who will be personally invested in the result of this match and learn the name of their compatriot: Li Na. In some sense this can be considered performance pressure that no other player has ever experienced. However, Li is used to being a trailblazer so perhaps she will not be overly affected. Clijsters is in her 8th career major final (losing the first four and winning the last three!) and her second consecutive major final following her 2010 US Open title. The two have played 6 times, with Clijsters winning 4 times, including twice in grand slams. However, Li Na won the last match they played, the final of the Sydney International, exactly two weeks to the day the 2011 Australian Open women's final will be completed. Li Na made history there by becoming the first Chinese player to win a top Tier title on the women's tour; she beat Clijsters 7-6(3) 6-3 despite the fact that the Belgian was up 5-0 in the first set.

I find it hard to believe that Clijsters will blow a lead of 5-0 in the final (and hard to believe that Li Na will give up such a huge lead also). The two play similar styles but the 3-time US Champion does everything better than the 1st-time finalist. They both have huge forehands, dangerous backhands and are excellent movers. Additionally, Clijsters is quite good at the net (although Li is not afraid of approaching the net she is not as effective when she gets there) and has a serve that should win her some free points. 

The only hope for Li is if Clijsters goes through one of her patches of bad play, or for some reason gets nervous as she nears winning her first major title outside of New York.

PREDICTION: Clijsters.

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Semifinals Review

Li Na CHN (9) d. Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1)  3-6 7-5 6-3. Li Na reached her first Australian Open final by continuing to go for her shots despite being a set and a break down. She got in that predicament by repeatedly misfiring on her powerful forehand, making many more errors than winners on that wing.  Wozniacki had a match point on her serve at 5-4, 40-30 but Li dismissed it with forehand down-the-line winner. She followed that up by winning a 20-plus stroke rally to earn a breakpoint which she won with a cross-court winner. Li held her serve at love and when Wozniacki served at 5-6 to earn a tiebreaker she lost her serve and the second set by double faulting on Li's second set point. In the third set Li was broken in the third game but broke back at love immediately and held serve easily to go up 3-2. The two then traded breaks and when Wozniacki served at 3-4 she used her last challenge a winner by Li that ave the Chinese player a break point. The two then played a very long point which ended with a Wozniacki error into the net, giving Li the break and the chance to serve out the match. Li wins the first two points of the game and then loses the next two on bad errors to reach 30-all. Li wins the next rally with and on her first match point Wozniacki hits the ball wide at the end of a rally to lose the match. Li makes history as the first woman or man from Asia to reach a Grand Slam final!

 Kim Clijsters BEL (3) d. Vera Zvonareva RUS (2) 6-3 6-3. Two words is all it takes to describe Clijsters play in this match: "brutally efficient." Zvonareva did not play badly, but Clijsters has the fire power to overwhelm Zvonareva's excellent defensive skills and did so by using patience and controlled aggression. Zvonareva started the match with a break of Clijsters serve but once Clijsters immediately broke back in the second game she was never in any real danger of losing.

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the Australian Open this year. I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) vs. Li Na CHN (9). Wozniacki is the #1 ranked player in the world despite not having reached a single major final in 2010 and only once in her brief career (2009 US Open). The nubile, flaxen-haired 20-year-old from Denmark is sometimes called the "Golden Retriever" by some tennis observers due to her style of play resembling a human backboard. Wozniacki is in her first Australian Open semifinal while her opponent has reached this far in the tournament for the second consecutive year. In fact Li has won the first 10 matches she has played in 2011 and is surfing  a wave of confidence while Wozniacki is hearing an increasingly louder chorus of whispers doubting her ability to ever win a major title. Li on the other hand is hearing the call of history: can she become the first player from China to compete for (and win) a major title, especially the grand slam of Asia/Pacific, the Australian Open? I say, yes, and probably this  week. The match-up between the two players is interesting: Li has great power on both wings and is also an excellent mover; Wozniacki has the ability to frustrate her opponents by forcing them to "win" a point several times through relentless defense. Head-to-head Li leads 2-1 and beat Wozniacki in the fourth round here last year in straight sets as well as a few weeks before in Sydney. A year later I see no reason why the result should be any different. PREDICTION: Li.

Vera Zvonareva RUS (2) Petra Kvitova CZE (25) vs. Kim Clijsters BEL (3). I expected Kvitova to come through this match just like she had against #5 Samantha Stosur whom she dismissed easily in straight sets in front of a hometown crowd. However, Zvonareva showed incredible defense and consistency to eliminate the Czech lefty 6-2 6-4. Zvonareva has always been one of my favorite players to watch and her rise to the #2 ranking in the world via two consecutive major final finishes is a delight. Clijsters has been the clear favorite to win this year's title since Serena Willliams announced she would not be defending her 2010 Australian Open title. She is the only player of the final four remaining in the tournament who has won a major title; Clijsters has 3 US Open titles (2005, 2009, 2010). With Elena Dementieva's retirement Zvonareva is probably the best player on tour not to have won a major. Head-to-head Clijsters leads 6-3 but 5 of these wins were before Clijsters' "retirement" in May 2007. The two played 4 times in 2010 and Zvonareva won 3 of those matches, losing the most important one in a rout: the 2010 US Open women's final (6-1 6-2). None of those matches were finals, where the mental pressure is a larger factor and this poses a disadvantage to the more mentally fragile player. In a semifinal the mental pressure is less which should help Vera play some of her best tennis. It is also true that Clijsters does have a tendency to go through bad patches which complicates what should be easy wins. I suspect something like that will happen in this match as well, but in the end, Clijsters will find a way to prevail. PREDICTION: Clijsters.

AUS OPEN 2011: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the Australian Open this year.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova RUS (23) Francesca Schiavone ITA (6). After the historic marathon match between Svetlana Kuznetsova and Francesca Schivaone, most observers expected the quarterfinal involving the "winner" to be scheduled last in order to increase the likelihood of a competitive match. Unfortunately, the powers that be have decided that the World #1's quarterfinal would not be a featured night match, opting for a women's doubles quarterfinal instead. There are very few men's 5-set matches that have lasted the 4-hours and 44 minutes of "Franlana." After the titanic first round match between David Nalbandian and Lleyton Hewitt was won by the Argentine, it resulted in the "winner" retiring meekly after playing about a set and a half of tennis 48 hours later. Schiavone finished her match around 8:05pm on Sunday and is scheduled to play her match against Wozniacki on Rod Laver Arena following the all-Swiss Federer-Wawrinka quarterfinal which will not be before 12:30pm on Tuesday. That is much less than 48 hours of recovery time. I know that the Italian has already proved that "Impossible is Nothing" with her incredible 2010 French Open win but I think that asking her to be 100% (even 50%) for her match with Wozniacki less than 48 hours after playing the longest women's grand slam match in history is a hill too high for even this dynamic athlete to climb. PREDICTION: Wozniacki in 2 sets.

Maria Sharapova RUS (14) Andrea Petkovic GER (30) vs Li Na CHN (9) Victoria Azarenka BLR (8). I really like the play of the veteran Chinese player (so much so I named my dog after her!) and am very excited that she is playing even better than last year, where she reached the semifinals of this tournament, losing to the eventual winner Serena Williams. Li Na has been a trailblazing icon of Chinese tennis; she is the first Chinese player to reach the Top 50, Top 40, Top 30, Top 20, Top 10 and to win a Tier 1 title (when she defeated Kim Clijsters in Brisbane earlier this year). She dismissed what some people thought was a legitimate contender to win the title in Victoria Azarenka in straight sets. Li has excellent power on both wings and is currently brimming with confidence since she is undefeated so far in 2011. Petkovic is no slouch and has improved upon her best result in a major (4th Round at the 2010 U.S. Open) at this year's 2011 Australian Open. I think it is highly unlikely she will prevent Li Na from attempting to improve her best result in a major and become the first Chinese player to reach a major final. PREDICTION: Li in 2 sets.

Agnieszka Radwanska POL (12) vs. Kim Clijsters BEL (3).  Kim Clijsters is simply the best player on hard courts still left in the tournament, as evidenced by her three consecutive US Open titles. She does have a tendency to go off sometimes, and can get frustrated by counter-punchers. She had a surprisingly tight match with the diminutive Alize Cornet of France in the third round. Aggie Radwanska is the epitome of the kind of player who could give Clijsters fits, since she plays a game resembling the late, little lamented Martina Hingis. Clijsters had a pretty good record against Hingis and the one time she played Radwanska (more than 5 years ago) she won that match as well. I suspect this match will either be a 2-set blowout or a seesaw 3-setter where none of the individual sets are very close. PREDICTION: Clijsters in 3 sets.

Samantha Stosur AUS (5) Petra Kvitova CZE (25) vs. Vera Zvonareva RUS (2).  Petra Kvitova is the most dangerous player in the draw. She is a very confident, powerful lefty with tremendous power on both wings and she's an excellent mover with a good serve. She's also undefeated for 2011; in fact she's only lost one set all tournament, to the hard-hitting and crafty Italian Flavia Pennetta. Kvitova dismissed the  host country's great hope Samantha Stosur in straight sets with no regard for the audience.Vera Zvonareva has defeated every player she has faced in her half of the draw in the last two majors she has played (Wimbledon 2010 and US Open 2010) and has done an admirable job of turning around her reputation as "head case" by embodying consistency. But when consistency meets power, I usually put my money on power. Zvonareva has also lost only one set so far in the tournament (to hard-hitting young Serb Bojana Jovanovski)  and almost lost another one to the hard-hitting lefty Lucie Safarova from the Czech Republic. I'm pretty sure that streak will end when she faces an even harder hitting lefty Czech player. PREDICTION: Kvitova in 3 sets.