2011 FRENCH OPEN: Rafa Wins 6th FO, 10th Major

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Rafael Nadal won his 6th French Open title on Sunday, defeating Roger Federer 7-5 7-6(3) 5-7 6-1 in the championship match. Nadal, 25, now owns 10 major singles titles (6 French, 2 Wimbledon, 1 Australian, 1 U.S. Open) which is 6 less than Federer, 29, but he has reached the double-digit landmark at an age 6-months younger than Federer was. Nadal improved to a 17-8 lifetime career head-to-head against his rival, including a 6-2 edge in major finals and 12-2 in clay court matches.

The match was a high quality affair, as I predicted yesterday, and for the first 40 minutes Federer played nearly flawless tennis, similar to the high level of play he exhibited in dismissing then-unbeaten Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. He eventually earned a set point at 5-2, 40-30 but during a medium-long rally, Federer attempted a backhand drop shot which fell (presumably) a bit wide. I say presumably because for some inexplicable reason Roland Garros continues to be the only tournament without electronic line calling review. That was the last chance Federer had to win that set as Nadal stopped making errors for a string of seven games and Federer's service percentage plummeted from the stratospheric heights of 80% to a mere mortal's 50% and by the time the run ended Nadal was up 7-5 2-0. Amazingly, Federer was able to start crawling back from 2-4 down and after a brief rain delay at 7-5 5-4 deuce with Nadal serving he was able to break back and force a 2nd set tiebreaker.

In the second set tie-breaker Federer's serve abandoned him and he quickly fell behind 0-4 and was lucky to only lose it 7-3. In the third set Nadal got an early break and led 4-2 when surprisingly Federer was able to make another run and win the set 7-5. He started the 4th set with 0-40 on Nadal's serve who made an adjustment and started going for much more on his serve and was able to hold his serve. Federer held as well at 0-1 and that was the last game he won as his forehand started to misfire (his backhand was surprisingly solid throughout the entire match).

Federer played well, but he had 42 winners (plus 11 aces) to 56 errors (only 1 double fault) compared to Nadal's 35 winners (plus 4 aces) and 27 errors. There were long stretches of play where Nadal did not commit a single unforced error. His defense was jaw-dropping, repeatedly throwing up desperate lobs that seemed to go into orbit which Federer had to let drop and allowed the King of Clay to restart the point. That defense and Nadal's decision to increase his service percentage but decrease the service speed was one of the key differences to Nadal winning the match.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview

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Roger Federer SUI (3) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (1). For the 25th time, the Spanish lefty and the Swiss righty who have dominated men's tennis for the last 7 years will meet in an ATP tour match, with Nadal maintaining a 2:1 winning ratio, 16-8. The two have met in 7 major finals (3 in Paris, 3 in London and 1 in Melbourne) so far, with Nadal leading 5-2 (only losing the 2006 Wimbledon and 2007 Wimbledon finals). The vast majority of their meetings have occurred in championship matches, often when the two were ranked #1 and #2 in the world. In these 18 finals, Nadal leads 12-6, and 9-2 in the clay court finals.


Federer won one of his best clay court matches ever on Friday when he ended Novak Djokovic's undefeated year with a 7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 7-6(5) victory. He served astonishingly well, with 65% first serves in and 18 aces (including one on match point) compared to a mere 2 double faults. Federer defended well, gliding around the court as if he was not a father of nearly 2-year-old twin girls and strongly hitting his topspin backhand down the line and knifing the backhand slice.


The perplexing problem is that the match up between Nadal's game on clay and Federer's game greatly favors the Spaniard. Nadal's topspin forehand jumps up high to Federer's backhand side, making it difficult for Federer to defend that side. Although Federer's forehand cross-court outmatches Nadal's backhand cross-court it is often very difficult for the Swiss player to win points that way due to Nadal's ferocious defensive skills. The two wins on clay that Federer has in his career over "The King of Clay" arguably came when Nadal was not at his best physically (2009 Madrid) or a court on which Federer was incredibly confident (2007 Hamburg). The last time they played the final in 2008, Nadal mercilessly pummeled the Swiss player, relegating him to a mere 4 games in a 3-set match, 6-1 6-3 6-0.


I do think that the match tomorrow will be their closest Roland Garros contest, maybe even a 4-set or 5-set affair, but in the end Nadal's 43-1 dominance on the court will prevail, allowing the World #1 to tie Borg's record of 6 clay court majors.


PREDICTION: Nadal.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Final Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's finals at Roland Garros for 2011. This year, I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 1 of 2 women's semifinals. I also correctly predicted 1 of 2 men's semifinals and  2 of 3 men's quarterfinals this year.

Francesca Schiavone ITA (5) vs. Na Li CHN (6). This should be an excellent match. Last year, Schiavone stunned the world by playing the match of her life to win her first major title just weeks before her 30th birthday over heavily favored Samantha Stosur. Schiavone had never been past the quarterfinal of any major despite playing in 35. Since then, after losing in the first round at Wimbledon, she has been in two consecutive major  quarterfinals and has not won a tour title since. That being said, she has returned to a second consecutive final appearance here in Paris, outlasting, outwitting and outplaying several hard-hitting players like Anastasia Pavlyunchenkova in the quarters and Marion Bartoli in the semis. Her opponent is Li Na, a hard-hitting player who dispatched 3-time major champion Maria Sharapova in the semifinals and Victoria Azarenka in the quarterfinals in straight sets by blasting winners into every corner of the court. Li is playing in her second major final of 2011, again becoming the first Chinese player (male or female) to play for a major title in Paris.


Head-to-head Schiavone and Li are tied at 2 wins apiece with the flashy Italian winning their one meeting on clay, at this tournament last year, relatively easily 6-4 6-2. However, 2011 is a completely different scenario for Schiavone than 2010. Last year, almost no one expected her to win so she faced almost no pressure, and was able to marshal all aspects of her all-court game and deploy all her crafty spins and slices to give the hard-hitting but mentally fragile Stosur fits. This year she is the defending champion, and she is expected to repeat her win here by many people. The more compelling storyline is owned by Li, who is aiming to be the first person from the most populous nation on earth to win a major title. As I said earlier, clay rewards excellent movement, and since both Schiavone and Li are excellent movers Schiavone's edge over most hard-hitters is muted. If Li can remain patient and not got frustrated by the variety of ball coming her way, she'll become a Grand Slam champion. PREDICTION: Li.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Federer ENDS Djokovic's Streak; Faces Nadal In Final

On Rafael Nadal's 25th birthday, Roger Federer pulled off one of the most unexpected and impressive victories of his already storied career by defeating the hottest player on tour this year, Novak Djokovic, in a historic, thrilling 7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 7-6(5) match which last 3 hours, 39 minutes.

Federer ended Djokovic's winning streak this year at 41 (or 42 matches, if you count his quarterfinal walk-over over Fabio Fognini), also denying the 24-year-old Serbian the World #1 ranking. Federer had been the last person to beat Djokovic in November 2010 before the streak which garnered him 7 titles this year (1 major and 4 Masters shields) started. The Swiss Great reached the 23rd major final of his career, his 5th at Roland Garros, where he will play 5-time champion Rafael Nadal who leads him 5-2 in major finals and 3-0 in Paris finals. As expected, Nadal easily dismissed World #4 Andy Murray in straight sets 6-4 7-5 6-4 to reach his 12th major final, 6th at Roland Garros. Federer improved to a career 14-9 head-to-head over Djokovic.

On Sunday, Nadal will be playing to match Bjorn Borg's haul of 6 French Open titles and retain his World #1 ranking, while Federer will be playing to extend his career total to 17 major singles titles, 3 more than Peter Sampras' 14. Nadal has beaten Federer twice this year already and leads their career head-to-head 16-8 and 11-2 on clay. If Nadal loses, Djokovic will become World #1 on Monday.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at Roland Garros for 2011. This year, I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals,  3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 3 men's quarterfinals. Last year I was correct in 2 of 2 2010 French Open men's semifinal predictions.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). The 5-time defending champion played his best tennis of the tournament against the only man who has ever beaten him at Roland Garros, Robin Soderling, in the quarterfinals, dismissing the Swede in straight sets 6-4 6-1 7-6(3). Nadal now has a 43-1 lifetime record on the clay courts in Paris, an astonishing 97.7% winning percentage. For that reason alone, one must consider him the favorite in his semifinal with Andy Murray.

Murray looked good in his 7-6(2) 7-5 6-2 against Juan Ignacio Chela in the quarterfinals after surviving a near-death experience in his 5-set tussle with Viktor Troicki in the Round of 16. Head-to-head Nadal leads Murray 10-4 in the career matches, 3-2 in majors, and 3-0 on clay. Murray won a set when they played in Monaco this year and served for the match against Novak Djokovic in the Rome semifinals so his clay bona fides are legitimate. All that being said, Murray has almost no chance to win this match on Friday unless he plays the match of his life (which he has found it difficult to do on the big stage of  the 3 major finals he's been in to date as well as the 2010 Wimbledon semifinal) and Nadal plays some of his worst tennis. Nadal is playing to reach his 6th final at Roland Garros in order to try and match Bjorn Borg's all-time record, and Murray is trying to reach his 1st final in Paris. The difference is clear. PREDICTION: Nadal. 

Roger Federer SUI (3) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). "The best player of today against the best player in history," says World #1 Rafael Nadal. This will be the most mouth-wateringly epic major semifinal since the last mouth-wateringly epic major semifinal these two played at the 2011Australian Open and the one before that at the 2010 US Open where Federer had two match points and lost. There's no question that there is a lot of history on the line, but this time it is mostly on the shoulders of the 24-year-old, not the 29-year-old holder of 16-major singles titles. First, there's the amazing winning streak of 41 matches won in a row in 2011 (I think counting the two Davis Cup matches he won at the end of the year when you don't get prize money or ranking points for those wins is simply silly). If Djokovic wins on Friday he will equal John McEnroe's open era record of the best ever start to a tennis season. Second, the World #1 ranking is in play and for the first time since 2004 someone other than Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer could reach the top spot. Becoming #1 is always a momentous point in any great player's career, and this achievement would be one he has had to wait for, for a long, long time.

Third, Djokovic is trying to reach his first ever non-hard court major final, to prove that he is really an all-surfaces player. Djokovic reached this point through a walkover when handsome trickster Fabio Fognini withdrew. Federer reached his record 26th major semifinal in the last 7 years by dismissing a still-improving Gael Monfils in front of a rowdy Parisian crowd 6-4 6-3 7-6(3). Federer is in the unusual position of trying to be the spoiler, but he appears to be relishing the challenge. Federer has a 13-9 career head-to-head edge over Djokovic, including 2-1 on clay but a scant 4-3 in majors. However, the Swiss Great is playing some of his best tennis this year and has not dropped a set. He is also the last person to have beaten Novak Djokovic in an ATP Tour match, on Saturday November 27, 2010, exactly 188 days ago. That streak will last a little longer. PREDICTION:  Djokovic

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

AP Photo/Lionel Cironneau

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at Roland Garros for 2011. This year, I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 3 men's quarterfinals. Last year I was correct in 2 of 2 2010 French Open women's semifinal predictions.

Marion Bartoli FRA (11) vs. Francesca Schiavone ITA (5).  The 2010 French Open defending champion made an astonishing escape to win her quarterfinal match with hard-hitting Anastasia Pavlyunchenkova. The Italian was down 1-6 1-4 but came back to lead 5-2 in the final set and gutted out the win 7-5 in the 3rd after the youngster stormed back to even the match at 5-all in the 3rd. Bartoli is in the semifinal of her country's major, a significant feat that 2-time major champion and former World #1 Amelie Mauresmo was unable to accomplish. Bartoli's dream is to play in and win the final in Roland Garros, but that will not be happening this year.

The Frenchwoman did well while Svetlana Kuznetsova committed one of her patented meltdowns to ruin my potential 100% accuracy rate in quarterfinal predictions.

Bartoli hits two-handed on both wings with impressive power and has increased her fitness level so that she can survive long rallies but her movement is suspect and Schiavone has the shot variety to expose the gaping weaknesses in Bartoli's unorthodox game.

The two have never met on clay, which is Schiavone's best surface, but the Italian still leads the career head-to-head 6-1, including a win on Bartoli's best surface, grass. Even though the two have not played each other in over two years I suspect even the new and improved Bartoli will be no match for the new and improved Schiavone who truly believes "nothing is impossible." PREDICTION: Schiavone in 2 sets.

Maria Sharapova RUS (7) vs. Na Li CHN (6). This should be an excellent match, with the winner most likely going on to win the title. Who would have thought the only woman on the tour to be in two major semifinals this year would be Li Na from China? Head-to-head Sharapova leads 5-2 but Li has won the last two times the two have played (which were both on the relatively slow grass of Birmingham in 2009 and 2010). The one time they played on clay was in Paris two years ago and Sharapova eked out a truly bizarre 6-4 0-6 6-4 victory. Sharapova is playing the clay as if it is a hard court, blasting serves and hitting groundstrokes even harder. She demolished Andrea Petkovic 6-0 6-3, a player who took her out in the year's first major tournament to reach this point. Li was able to dismiss heavy favorite World #4 Viktoria Azarenka 7-5 6-2 to reach her first major semifinal in Paris.

However, clay rewards great movement and there's no question Li is the superior mover between the two. Sharapova does hit the ball hard, but Li also has her own firepower, with one of the best backhands in the women's game. Sharapova, however, has 3 major titles and has been in 10 major semifinals. Li has been in one major semifinal, but it was this year--Sharapova's last major semifinal was 3 years ago in Australia when she won the entire tournament in 2008. Sharapova is on a clay court winning streak, having won the Madrid title two weeks before Paris over 2010 Roland Garros finalist Samantha Stosur. If Sharapova serves well and is accurate off the ground she should win the match, but if Li is able to withstand the onslaught Sharapova's penchant for painting the lines will become a liability as those shots slowly turn into errors and Li will be in her second major final. The mental edge should favor Sharapova since she is undefeated against both Schiavone and Bartoli. For Sharapova, this match is the final, and she would desperately love to be in the panoply of great women players who have completed the career slam (like Navratilova, Evert, Graf, S.Williams, King and Court) . For Li, she makes history every time she steps on the court and may be satisfied by being the most successful Chinese player ever. PREDICTION: Sharapova in 2 sets OR Li in 3 sets.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Federer, Schiavone, Bartoli in Semifinals

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As I predicted yesterday, Roger Federer reached his 26th major semifinal in 28 majors by defeating Gael Monfils at the French Open for the 3rd time in 4 years on Tuesday. The Swiss Great beat the Frenchman in front of his hometown crowd 6-4 6-3 7-6(3) despite some truly atrocious play early on in the first set, probably due to the very difficult windy conditions.

In other matches completed, Andy Murray reached the quarterfinals by coming back from 2-5 in the 5th set to win 7-5. He will face Juan Ignaco Chela for the right to face the winner of tomorrow's blockbuster quarterfinal between Rafael Nadal and Robin Soderling. Francescha Schiavone came back from 1-6 1-4 down to against youngster Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to win 1-6 7-5 7-5 in an astonishing result for the defending champion. Schiavone will face Frenchwoman Marion Bartoli who defied my predictions and bounced 2009 French Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova from the tournament 7-6(4) 6-4. Schiavone is very likely to reach her second consecutive French Open final.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Woz, Stosur Upset! Raja, Gael, Gasquet In R16

Daniela Hantuchova celebrates her defeat of World #1 Caroline Wozniacki at the 2011 French Open

For the first time since 1971 in the era of Open tennis, the two top seeds on the women side have been eliminated in a major tournament before the 4th round. World #1 Caroline Wozniacki followed World #2 Kim Clijsters exit yesterday by being swept off the court 6-1 6-3 by hard-hitting, mentally fragile Daniela Hantuchova. Wozniacki has been #1 despite being in only one major final (which she lost to Clijsters). Hantuchova will face 2009 French Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova for a quarterfinal berth. Another stunning upset on the women's side was the disappearance of 2010 French Open finalist Samantha Stosur who got outplayed by Gisela Dulko 6-4 1-6 6-3. Vera Zvonareva, Jelea Jankovic and defending champion Francesca Schiavone all advanced to the round of 16.

On the men's side the marquee match of the tournament between the only players besides Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to have won a major title in the last 5 years was scheduled last on for the day and thus had to be stopped completely even with Novak Djokovic winning the first set 6-3 and Juan Martín del Potro returning the favor. They will play a best of 3-sets tomorrow after a women's match. Djokovic has a 39-match winning streak on the line against someone who everyone acknowledges is a Top 5-level player even though he is currently seeded #25. Frenchmen Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils are in the final 16 at their hometown tournament but unfortunately their third musketeer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was unable to join them despite winning the first two sets against Stanislas Wawrinka, who will play Federer in the fourth round. Monfils will face David Ferrer who has not dropped a set all tournament for a potential quarterfinal berth against Federer. Gasquet has the unenviable task of playing the winner of the Del Potro-Djokovic encounter.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Top Seeds Proceed Thru Draw

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The highlight of the first round at the 2011 French Open was 5-time defending champion and World #1 Rafael Nadal being stretched to 5 sets by Marathon Man John Isner, 6-4 6-7(2) 6-7(2)  6-2 6-4. Other than that (slight) excitement, the seeds have basically come through the early round unscathed.

On the men's side Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, David Ferrer are all through to Round 3. Tomas Berdych and Nicolas Almagro are the only seeds from the Top 16 to have lost in the first round. Djokovic's streak is now up to 39 matches for the year, although he will play 2009 US Open champion Juan Martín del Potro in the 3rd round.

On the women's side none of the Top 17(!) seeds lost in the first round. Caroline Wozniacki, Vera Zvonareva, 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavione, Samantha Stosur, Jelena Jankovic, Marion Bartoli and 2009 French Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova have all made it to the third round. 2008 French Open champion Ana Ivanovic lost in the first round, completing a "grand slam" of first round losses at the majors. An interesting 3rd round match should be Wozniacki versus Daniela Hantuchova.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Djokovic, Federer, Stosur, Wozniacki Win

The 2011 French Open has begun. #2 seed Novak Djokovic won his 38th consecutive tour match in a row (the record is John McEnroe's 42 in 1984) to reach the second round by dismissing talented youngster Thiemo de Bakker in straight sets 6-2 6-1 6-3. Other first round winners were Roger Federer over Francisco Lopez, Caroline Wozniacki, 2010 Roland Garros defending champion Francesca Schiavone and Samantha Stosur.

2010 Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych lost 1st round 9-7 in the fifth after winning the first two sets.