2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview

FFT

Roger Federer SUI (3) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (1). For the 25th time, the Spanish lefty and the Swiss righty who have dominated men's tennis for the last 7 years will meet in an ATP tour match, with Nadal maintaining a 2:1 winning ratio, 16-8. The two have met in 7 major finals (3 in Paris, 3 in London and 1 in Melbourne) so far, with Nadal leading 5-2 (only losing the 2006 Wimbledon and 2007 Wimbledon finals). The vast majority of their meetings have occurred in championship matches, often when the two were ranked #1 and #2 in the world. In these 18 finals, Nadal leads 12-6, and 9-2 in the clay court finals.


Federer won one of his best clay court matches ever on Friday when he ended Novak Djokovic's undefeated year with a 7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 7-6(5) victory. He served astonishingly well, with 65% first serves in and 18 aces (including one on match point) compared to a mere 2 double faults. Federer defended well, gliding around the court as if he was not a father of nearly 2-year-old twin girls and strongly hitting his topspin backhand down the line and knifing the backhand slice.


The perplexing problem is that the match up between Nadal's game on clay and Federer's game greatly favors the Spaniard. Nadal's topspin forehand jumps up high to Federer's backhand side, making it difficult for Federer to defend that side. Although Federer's forehand cross-court outmatches Nadal's backhand cross-court it is often very difficult for the Swiss player to win points that way due to Nadal's ferocious defensive skills. The two wins on clay that Federer has in his career over "The King of Clay" arguably came when Nadal was not at his best physically (2009 Madrid) or a court on which Federer was incredibly confident (2007 Hamburg). The last time they played the final in 2008, Nadal mercilessly pummeled the Swiss player, relegating him to a mere 4 games in a 3-set match, 6-1 6-3 6-0.


I do think that the match tomorrow will be their closest Roland Garros contest, maybe even a 4-set or 5-set affair, but in the end Nadal's 43-1 dominance on the court will prevail, allowing the World #1 to tie Borg's record of 6 clay court majors.


PREDICTION: Nadal.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Fabio Fognini won his marathon 4th round match to a chorus of boos and cheers and
then withdrew from the tournament prior to playing the biggest match of his career.

(Photo credit:  Benoit Tessier, REUTERS)

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2011 French Open. Last year, I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Robin Soderling SWE (5). The dream quarterfinal. Rafael Nadal has only ever lost one match at Roland Garros, and it was to his quarterfinal opponent, the World #5 tall, muscular Swede Robin Soderling. He defeated the 4-time defending champion in 2009, in one of the greatest upsets in sports of the last decade; Soderling followed up that upset by repeating it the following year by beating the defending champion Roger Federer in the quarterfinals to end Federer's incredible streak of 23 consecutive Grand Slam semifinals. Nadal does not appear to be playing his best tennis this year but still must be considered the favorite considering his overall clay court record. However, Nadal's confidence must  be shaken by his two recent losses to Djokovic in two clay court Masters finals this season. Soderling does not lack confidence, and if he plays his best tennis against Nadal's not-best tennis, he will repeat his 2009 result. If Nadal plays at his 2010 level, then the defending champion should get through and possibly win a 6th Roland Garros title, tying Bjorn Borg's record. PREDICTION: Soderling in 4 sets.  

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Juan Ignacio Chela ARG. Andy Murray's dream draw turned into a nightmare during his 3rd round victory over a lefty qualifier Michael Berrer when he badly twisted his ankle in a 3-set win. He started his next round gingerly, losing the first 5 games of his 4th round match with Serbian Viktor Troicki. The World #4 came within one point of drawing even in the first set but ultimately ended up losing the first two sets 6-4 6-4. However, his movement and attitude visibly improved  and he was able to force a fifth and deciding set before darkness fell. I presume he will be able to win the deciding fifth set when play resumes on Tuesday and should have no problem dismissing the 31-year-old Argentine clay court specialist playing in his 3rd career major quarterfinal on Thursday. PREDICTION: Murray in 3 sets. 

Gael Monfils FRA (9) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). Federer continues to write his name in the tennis record books by reaching his 28th consecutive major quarterfinal with an efficient dispatch of countryman Stanislas Wawrinka in the 4th round. While Djokovic is winning universal acclaim and attention by continuing his flawless 2011 season, Federer continues to demonstrate why he has been at the upper echelon of men's tennis for the last seven consecutive years. There are few players in the Top 10 who have even played 28 consecutive major tournaments, and Federer has been in the last 8 or better in 28 consecutive major tournaments. His opponent is the Pride of France, "La Monf" who is in his 3rd quarterfinal at Roland Garros in 4 years. Unfortunately for the Frenchman, he has never won a match on clay against Federer. In fact, last fall in front of a Paris crowd, Monfils won his first match ever (in 6 tries) against the Swiss Great when he saved an incredible 5 match points and went on to win one of the best matches of the year in three tiebreak sets. However, getting through a tough 5-set against the always hard-to-beat David Ferrer in the 4th round was another indicator that the excessively talented, prodigiously athletic Monfils' results may start matching his potential. Federer is yet to lose a set in his 2011 appearance at Roland Garros, and while I expect that streak to end, I also expect he will again find a way to yet another major semifinal and a historic showdown with Novak Djokovic. PREDICTION:  Federer in 4 sets.

Fabio Fognini ITA vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). The quarterfinal that wasn't. The puckishly handsome Italian showed he was more than just a pretty face by outlasting clay court specialist Albert Montanes 11-9 in the fifth set despite being unable to move due to suffering a muscle tear (or cramps?) in his leg at 5-6, 15-30. Fognini basically started blasting winners into all the corners on the court to erase 5 match points and controversially emerged with the win. However, he knew that he would have no chance against the red-hot Serbian who has yet to lose  a match in 2011 and thus withdrew (on advice of his doctors, who confirmed a 1cm muscle tear via MRI). This is both good news and bad news for Djokovic. It means that he is at least one round further in the tournament than he was last year, which is good news for his campaign to become World #1. He just needs to win one more match to reach his first French Open final and he will attain this goal of being acknowledged (by the computer) as the #1 player in the world. All Djokovic has to do is either beat 16-time major champion Roger Federer or hometown favorite Gael Monfils coming off the biggest win of his career in the semifinals on Friday. Getting to this point via walkover is bad news for Djokovic because he doesn't get credit for the win, so his streak remains at 41-0 for 2011 and that means he can only break John McEnroe's 1984 streak of 42-0 by winning the entire tournament. Plus it means he has a bizarre 4-day break in the middle of a major tournament after playing 3 consecutive days. It will be interesting to see what, if any, these factors have on Djokovic's play in the semifinal. I suspect nothing will deny Djokovic's date with destiny.

Madrid Masters Final: Djokovic Beats Nadal 7-5 6-4!

It's starting to get scary. Who can stop World #2 Novak Djokovic from winning matches? Not even World #1 Rafael Nadal, the greatest clay court player of all time, could win a set against Djokovic on his home turf of Madrid today, losing 7-5 6-4 in the Mutua Madrilena Open, a.k.a Madrid Masters. Djokovic began the match be brushing away double breakpoint by winning 4 consecutive points and rushing to a 4-0 lead in the set. Even though Nadal was able to crawl his way to 5-all, he was always being forced to hold serve to stay in the set and he succumbed at 5-6 to lose the first set on Djokovic's 3rd set point. In the second set, Nadal came alive by breaking Djokovic's first service game but the Serb immediately broke back.

It was Djokovic's 32nd consecutive match win of 2011, his 6th consecutive ATP tour title of the year, and 3rd consecutive Masters final (Indian Wells, Miami and now Madrid) win over Nadal this year. He ended Nadal's 37-match winning streak on clay, much to my surprise.

Djokovic improved to 10 wins and 16 losses against Nadal overall, and 1 win and 9 losses on clay. Most ominously, after losing the first 5 finals the two competed, the Serbian has won the next three.

Will Novak Djokovic be #1 by the end of the year?