WIMBLEDON 2011: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. I predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. Last year I predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly.

Maria Sharapova RUS (5) vs Sabine Lisicki GER . Sharapova appears to be returning to the form that has led her to win 3 major tournaments (2008 Australian Open, 2006 US Open and 2004 Wimbledon) so far after surgery in 2009 really deteriorated her game. Lisicki is a wild card has put on two amazing performances on Wimbledon Centre Court this year, dismissing 2011 French Open champion Li Na in the 3rd round and eliminating 2007 Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli in the quarterfinals. With both Williams sisters gone from the tournament (this was Serena's half) this is the most wide open Wimbledon in over a decade. If  you start to match up the two player's games Lisicki has the better serve, while Sharapova has the better return.

Sharapova has the better second serve, or at least she goes for more, but this also makes it less reliable. Sharapova has 19 aces but also 19 double faults over 5 matches so far. Lisicki has 44 aces and only 13 double faults. Sharapova has a total of 126 winners while Liscki has 157, including an incredible 52 winners in the round before in her 3-set win over Bartoli. Lisicki is probably the better mover but Sharapova is faster than she appears and can do more with the ball when she gets there. Analyzing their groundstrokes you have to give a big advantage to Sharapova, especially on the backhand side, with the forehand side being a bit closer. On grass you have to give the edge to the better server (Lisicki) but all the intangibles (been in this position before, mental toughness) go to Sharapova.I would be delighted if Lisicki wins, but I think it's more likely she will falter than Sharapova will. I was very surprised that Lisicki had to play a 3rd set against Bartoli, after having 3 match points in the second set, but she shook that off to win 6-1. If she gives that opportunity to Sharapova to come back, the Russian will reach her 2nd Wimbledon final. PREDICTION: Who I think will win: Sharapova, Who I want to win: Lisicki.

Victoria Azarenka BLR (4) vs. Petra Kvitova CZE (8). This should be the more interesting match of the two because the higher ranked player is the one with the less experience being in the semifinals of Wimbledon. However, I'm sure in her own mind Azarenka feels like she should have won a major already. Azarenka is like a young Novak Djokovic in that early in his career the Serbian retired in a number of important matches and Azarenka is (in)famous for her withdrawals from multiple matches, especially this year.

They are both incredibly talented players and you totally expect them to win multiple majors. Djokovic has met (and possibly even exceeded) expectations but Azarenka is still waiting for her big breakthrough. If you look at each of the semifinalists' records to this point Azarenka has only had 10 aces to 9 double faults in 5 rounds. Kvitova has had 26 aces to 11 double faults. Interestingly, when you match up their games you see that Kvitova has the better serve and the better ground strokes. Azarenka is by far the better mover and I think the intangibles are pretty even. Kvitova disappointed me when she lost a 2nd set tie-break to Tsevetana "Venus-killer" Pironkova with some bad misses on attempted winners. Then again, like Lisicki, she won the deciding set pretty easily. This second match should be closer than the first semifinal with Kvitova, another left-handed female player born in Czechoslovakia like the great Martina Navratiilova, reaching her first (but probably not her last) Wimbledon final. PREDICTION: Who I think will win: Kvitova, Who I want to win: Kvitova.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Petra Kvitova                                © AELTC/J.Buckle

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) Dominika Cibulkova SVK (24) vs Maria Sharapova RUS (5). For the first time since 2006 Maria Sharapova is in a Wimbledon quarterfinal when there is no possibility of a facing a Williams sister in order to win the title. Her immediate challenge is to defeat a woman who is almost a full foot shorter but who has beaten her the one time they played in a major. Cibulkova embarrassed Sharapova 6-0 6-2 in the quarterfinals of the 2009 French Open. Amazingly, all four of their career meetings have been on clay, and  the two are locked at 2-all, with the shorter player having won the last 2 matches, including one this year. However, Sharapova is much more comfortable on grass than clay. Cibulkova is also coming off one of the best wins of her career by basically blasting the World #1 Caroline Wozniacki off the court with nearly 20 forehand winners in a 1-6 7-6(5) 7-5 victory. The match-up on paper looks like a clear win for Sharapova, but Cibulkova has beaten her before and believes in her game. The question will be if Sharapova believes in her game, especially her (second) serve. PREDICTION: Sharapova in 3 sets.

Sabine Lisicki GER  vs. Serena Williams USA (7) Marion Bartoli FRA (9). Sabine Lisicki had one of the most outstanding performances by a female tennis player this year when she saved 2 match points against #3 seed Li Na (the most successful player at the Grand Slam tournaments this year) to win 3-6 6-4 8-6 in the second round. Lisicki has yet to lose a match on grass this year, having won in Birmingham right before Wimbledon, but she had to write the All-England Lawn Tennis Club in order to get a wildcard to enter the tournament, which was granted. 2007 Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli  put on an incredible performance in the 4th round of Wimbledon to dismiss the 2-time defending champion Serena Williams by out-hitting and out-serving the 13-time major champion in two sets 6-3 7-6(6). Bartoli had more aces (10 to 8) than Serena and in most of the rallies was hitting the ball harder and more aggressively. Serena did not play her best, true, but Bartoli won the match more than Serena lost it. Head-to-head Lisicki leads Bartoli 2-1 including a win over the Frenchwoman this year but Bartoli's lone win was on grass at Wimbledon in 2008. Bartoli had 11 aces in the first 3 rounds and 10 in the fourth. I seriously doubt she can play as well two rounds in a row. The German wild-card is a real contender to win the entire tournament. PREDICTION: Lisicki in 2 sets.

Tamira Paszek AUT  vs. Victoria Azarenka BLR (4). The highest remaining seed is the hard-hitting (and ear-splitting) Belarussian who has reached her 5th career grand Slam quarterfinal at this year's Wimbledon but who has never reached a major semifinal. I expect that streak to end on Tuesday. Her opponent, Paszek had an impressive win over 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavone in the 3rd round 3-6 6-4 11-9 after nearly four hours of play. Paszek had been long touted as a player to watch about 3 or 4 years ago but injuries got in the way and the 20-year-old is the furthest she has reached in a major since her breakthrough debut year in 2007. Azarenka has the power and mentality to dismiss most players outside of the Top 10. Paszek is not an exception.PREDICTION: Azarenka in 2 sets. 

Petra Kvitova CZE (8) vs. Venus Williams USA (23) Tsvetana Pironkova BUL (32). Pironkova must be Bulgarian for "kryptonite" because there is no other explanation for why the greatest women's grass court player of her generation would lose in two consecutive years to the same player, by the same exact score (6-2 6-3)! Last year Pironkova's stunning win was one round later and she followed it by losing a hideous match against Vera Zvonareva in the semifinals. The player in the other semifinal last year was Petra Kvitova who lost a high-quality affair to eventual champion Serena Williams. This year, Pironkova has to face the hard-hitting, fearless lefty who has the game to defeat anyone on the tour but didn't quite believe in herself enough. This year she has the belief that she can do it, and she can. PREDICTION: Kvitova in 2 sets.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Disaster! Serena and Venus Lose!

OMG! Venus and Serena William, who have won 9 of the last 11 Wimbledon singles titles between them, both lost in their fourth round matches on Monday June 27th ( a day that will live in infamy).

Venus lost 6-2 6-3 to Tsevetana Pironkova, the Bulgarian player who beat her in the 2010 Wimbledon quarterfinals (by the same exact score) and in the 2006 Australian Open 1st round.

Serena lost to 2007 Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli 6-3 7-6(6).

There are no words. Both played pretty horrendously. Clearly "Pironkova" is Kryptonite in Bulgarian because there is really no explanation for why Venus plays so horrendously against her.

Oh, in other "upset news" Dominque Cibulkova eliminated the #1 player in the world, Caroline Wozniacki.

The only player who has still won a major on the women's side is Maria Sharapova, who won the 2004 Wimbledon title over Serena.