Understanding Redistricting, Part 1

It matters how you draw the lines

Dante Atkins of Daily Kos has a very useful article on the importance of redistricting for progressives.

In most states, the decennial maps for congressional districts are redrawn and approved by state legislatures. Why does this matter? Because partisan state legislatures are likely to divvy up the districts in a way that benefits their party. How does this work in practice? At its most elementary, let's hypothesize a state with a population of nine people: five Democrats and four Republicans. And from those nine people, the Census Bureau required creating three districts with an equal number of people. If the state legislature were controlled by Democrats, they might make a map that carves the state in a way that has a majority of Democratic seats. But if Republicans were to control the legislature—something that happens from time to time in Democratic-voting states such as Minnesota—they just might pass a map with different districts that gives the GOP a majority of the seats. 

The 2010 elections will have long-lasting consequences for control of the House of Representatives. The problem isn't just that Republicans won so many seats; the larger problem is that they won them at exactly the right time. Incumbent representatives are hard to defeat, but unseating freshmen is generally an easier task. Unfortunately, having a wave election in a redistricting year allows the new majority party to take advantage of the redistricting process to shore up vulnerable members, usually by taking some friendlier territory from a safer, better-known incumbent—serving essentially to "lock in" that majority for the rest of the decade. In addition, less scrupulous legislators can use the redistricting process to consolidate the districts of opponents to force their members into either retirement or a bruising primary fight and removing them from their seats regardless—a process playing out right now to eliminate Democratic seats in states like North Carolina and Michigan. The GOP has also shown its willingness to use redistricting to ward off potential political disadvantages at the state legislative level as well: for example, Wisconsin Republicans are redrawing the state senate lines in a hurry before the recall elections, even though doing so right now would create a bureaucratic nightmare. Clearly, the GOP is willing to use redistricting as a political weapon in spite of any resulting collateral damage.

While most states have this concern, California no longer does. In 2008, voters passed Proposition 11, which created a so-called Citizens Redistricting Commission that removed the authority to draw legislative lines from the state legislature and put it into the hands of a supposedly non-partisan commission (in 2010, a second proposition was passed that put the authority to draw boundaries for congressional districts as well into the hands of this same body). The Democratic Party opposed this measure for obvious reasons: As Democrats have a substantial majority of seats, they control the redistricting process and could use it to maximize Democratic seats while ensuring no contentious primary battles among the state's delegation. (Full disclosure: I serve on the executive board of the California Democratic Party.)Furthermore, the commission's mandated structure is hardly representative of California's population: despite the fact that California is an overwhelmingly Democratic state, the commission is required to have an equal number of Democrats and Republicans serving, with absolutely no guarantee of geographic or ethnic diversity.

The commission has had other problems, such as missed deadlines and cancellation of draft maps—and right now, the current maps are likely to face suits, especially from organizations in the Latino community who feel that the maps dilute their community's voting power and are thus illegal under the Voting Rights Act. Nevertheless, among Democrats the mood of uncertainty at the congressional level has yielded to a cautious optimism, as the commission's draft maps (should they hold) will likely result in Democratic gains of multiple seats, and defeat or retirement of several longtime Republican members. 

CA-36: Hahn Defeats Huey By 9 Points

In yesterday's special election to replace former U.S. Representative Jane Harman in the 36th Congressional District of California, Los Angeles City Councilwoman has defeated Republican Tea Party businessman Craig Huey 54.5%-45.5%, just under 7,00
0 votes out of 75,000 cast.

The details are:

As of Date: 07/12/2011 Time: 23:31             Votes  Percent 
                                                                             
US REPRESENTATIVE 36 DIST    TERM ENDS 01/03/13                              
                                                                             
   JANICE HAHN            DEM                  41,585    54.56 
   CRAIG HUEY             REP                  34,636    45.44 
                                                                             
TOTAL PRECINCTS        261            

PRECINCTS REPORTING    261   100.00 
REGISTRATION       342,492   

Congratiolations to Congresswoman-elect Hahn!

Isadore Hall Announces Intention To Run For Congress

Assemblymember Isadore hall has announced his
intention to run for a South LA Congressional seat

The decennial redistricting will lead to a lot of turnover of the California congressional delegation, especially since a non-partisan commission is drawing the boundaries of every congressional and state legislative district in the state. This means that every current officeholder will be running in a brand new district. Many ambitious politicians will seize this opportunity to run for higher offices.

One such politician is Assemblymember Isadore Hall III, an African-American pastor who represents the 52nd Assembly District which includes part of North Long Beach and all of Compton. Hall recently announced his intention to run for a new Congressional district which is intended to be "majority-minority." There are currently 4 Black members in the 53-member Congressional delegation, all women: Maxine Waters (CA-35), Karen Bass (CA-33), Laura Richardson (CA-37) and Barbara Lee (CA-09). The district that Hall is eyeing would probably be one that Waters would be expected to run in, unless the 72-year-old Congresswoman decides to retire instead.

Hall's staff sent out a press release about his political intentions:

Compton, California – California State Assemblymember Isadore Hall announced his campaign for Congress today. Hall intends to run in a new Congressional District, which according to the first draft of maps released by the California Citizens Redistricting Committee on June 10th, might include the cities of Compton, Carson, Lynwood, Hawthorne, Gardena, Lawndale, portions of the City of Los Angeles and Unincorporated Los Angeles County.  

“As a local School Board Member, Councilmember and Assemblymember, I have worked tirelessly to make a difference in this community,” said Hall. “Our district needs a representative that will fight cuts to education and gang prevention programs, protect critical frontline services, and partner with President Obama to create family wage jobs.” 
“I have spent the past few days talking with friends and community leaders about running for this new seat,” Hall added.  “The response has been overwhelming and I am energized by the grassroots support we have already received.”

Hall is a former two term President of the Compton Unified School District Board of Trustees. He was elected to the Compton City Council in 2003 where he served in various leadership positions including Mayor pro Tempore.  Hall was elected to the California State Assembly in 2008 and served as Assistant Speaker pro Tempore during his first term. He currently serves as a member of the Appropriations, Elections and Redistricting and Human Services Committees. He chairs the Assembly Committee on Government Organization.
The youngest of six children, Hall was born and raised in the City of Compton. Hall holds a bachelors degree in Business Administration, a Masters Degree in Management and Leadership from the University of Southern California, a Masters Degree in Public Administration from National University and will be conveyed his Ph.D. from Next Dimension Bible College later this summer.

No incumbent member of Congress currently lives in the proposed Congressional District; however, Hall will not seek election to Congress in the event that Congresswoman Maxine Waters seeks to represent the new district.

I'm pretty confident that this will be the first of a lot of similar announcements.

Cartoon Reveals Republicans' Plan To Win In 2012

New York Assembly Passes Marriage Equality 80-63

Openly gay Assemblymember Daniel O'Donnell

For the fourth time since 2007, a marriage equality bill has passed the lower house of the New York State legislature, this time with a vote of 80-63 on Wednesday.

Gay City News reports:

This was the Assembly’s fourth vote on marriage equality, each one of them successful, since 2007. Upper West Side Assemblyman Daniel O’Donnell, an out gay Democrat, is the lead sponsor.

On the heels of two Republican senators pledging their “yes” votes in recent days, the majority in that chamber met behind closed doors for more than four hours on Wednesday morning, only to announce they would pick up the discussion again the following day. Senators who have yet to firmly commit to one side or another refused comment or stuck to their noncommittal positions.

The public count of Senate supporters stands at 31, one vote shy of a majority.

The Assembly floor debate offered a preview into the rhetoric that might soon be echoed in the Senate, as members voting yes made passionate speeches supporting equality and a largely tepid opposition raised concerns about infringement on religious values and the dangers of “redefining marriage.”


[...]


Supporters lined up to dismiss the standard opposition claim that marriage is a timeless institution that would be irreparably harmed by the governor’s legislation.

“It’s actually not true,” said Manhattan Assemblyman Dick Gottfried, who was the originating sponsor of marriage equality legislation, handing off that role to O’Donnell in 2007. “If we were to look honestly at what the institution of marriage was as little as a hundred years ago, we would be looking at an institution we scarcely recognize.”

Like several of his colleagues, Gottfried pointed out that the history of marriage included treating women as property and not allowing mixed-race marriages.

“It was all about property, it was all about hierarchy,” he said. “It was not at all about love.”

Hopefully the fourth time is the charm!

Gov. Cuomo Introduces Marriage Equality Act

As I mentioned yesterday, today Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York introduced the Marriage Equality Act (pdf) which would end discrimination in the issuance of civil marriage licenses on the basis of the gender of the couples.

The Office of the Governor's press release:

Albany, NY (June 14, 2011)

Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today submitted a program bill to bring marriage equality to New York state. The Marriage Equality Act permits all couples to enter into marriage in New York state, thereby removing the current barrier same-sex couples face in recognizing their relationships, protecting their families and obtaining essential benefits.

Specifically, the Act grants same-sex couples who seek to marry equal status under the law as well as hundreds of rights, benefits and protections that are currently limited to married couples of the opposite sex.

"From the fight for women's suffrage to the struggle for civil rights, New Yorkers have been on the right side of history. But on the issue of marriage equality, our state has fallen behind," Governor Cuomo said. "For too long, same-sex couples have been denied the freedom to marry, as well as hundreds of rights that other New Yorkers take for granted. Marriage Equality is a matter of fairness and legal security for thousands of families in this state – not of religion or culture. When it comes to fighting for what's right, New Yorkers wrote the book, and Marriage Equality is the next chapter of our civil rights story."

The U.S. Supreme Court has held that the freedom to marry is "one of the vital personal rights essential to the orderly pursuit of happiness by free people." Further, the state assigns hundreds of protections, benefits and mutual responsibilities in a variety of areas to couples who marry, including health care and hospital visitation rights, child custody issues and financial matters.

However, in New York, many individuals who currently seek to exercise the freedom to marry their partners may not do so solely because they are of the same sex.

The Marriage Equality Act would remove these barriers by amending New York's Domestic Relations Law to state:

• A marriage that is otherwise valid shall be valid regardless of whether the parties to the marriage are of the same or different sex
• No government treatment or legal status, effect, right, benefit, privilege, protection or responsibility relating to marriage shall differ based on the parties to the marriage being the same sex or a different sex
• All relevant gender-specific language set forth in or referenced by New York law shall be construed in a gender-neutral manner
• No application for a marriage license shall be denied on the ground that the parties are of the same or a different sex

To ensure that the bill does not intrude into matters of religious belief, the Marriage Equality Act affirms that no member of the clergy can be compelled to solemnize any marriage. This bill grants equal access to the government-created legal institution of civil marriage while leaving the religious institution of marriage to its own separate and fully autonomous sphere. The bill also guarantees that religious institutions and benevolent organizations such as the Knights of Columbus remain free to choose who may use their facilities for marriage ceremonies and celebrations or to whom they provide religious services, consistent with their religious principles.

New York has always been at the forefront in advancing equal rights. In 1983, New York banned discrimination based on sexual orientation in state employment. In 2002, the state extended the same principle to the private sector by enacting the Sexual Orientation Non-Discrimination Act. That same year, the state recognized same-sex relationships by extending workers' compensation benefits to all those who lost a partner on 9/11. Passage of the Marriage Equality Act represents yet another significant step in granting full and equal rights to all citizens of New York state.

The Marriage Equality Act bill memo is available here. The bill text is available here.

This action is significant because Governor Cuomo had earlier said that he would not introduce a bill this session (which ends next Monday) unless it would pass.

There are currently 30 declared supporters  (29 Democrats and 1 Republican) of marriage equality legislation in the 62-member State Senate, which has passed the state Assembly 3 times. More announcements by Republican supporters are expected prior to a decision on whether a vote will occur on the bill by the Republican caucus on Wednesday June 15.

Saturday Politics: Will San Diego's Next Mayor Be Gay?

Interesting news out of San Diego. There are numerous candidates lining up to replace Jerry Sanders as Mayor of San Diego, and several of them are openly gay. The most prominent of these is openly lesbian Bonnie Dumanis, a Republican who is currently District Attorney and has been endorsed by Sanders as his successor. Other openly gay candidates are Democratic State Senator Christine Kehoeand Republican City Councilman Carl DeMaio. Also running for the mayoral position appears to be U.S. Representative Bob Filner (D-51) and Republican State Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher.

SurveyUSA has a new poll out of the non-partisan race:

City Council Member Carl DeMaio today gets 22% of the vote, and begins the campaign with notable advantages among demographic groups that tend to break for more conservative candidates. DeMaio, one of 5 Republicans running in this non-partisan race, leads today among men, whites, Asians, Republicans, independents, conservatives, and higher-income voters. Among the oldest and traditionally most reliable voters, DeMaio leads by 11 points. Among the small number of San Diego voters who identify themselves as Tea Party members, DeMaio leads his nearest rival 4:1. 

San Diego County District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis gets 15%, slightly edging DeMaio among women, but not leading among any other group. 

Bob Filner, currently serving his 10th term in the US House of Representatives as a Democrat, gets 14% today, and leads among the youngest and traditionally least reliable voters and among San Diego's relatively small number of African American voters. 

Democratic State Senator Christine Kehoe gets 12%, leading Filner and Dumanis among Democrats, and is significantly ahead among liberals. 

3 other named candidates combine to take 17% of the vote; 6% say they would vote for some other, unnamed candidate. 14% of registered voters today are undecided.

This should be  a very interesting race to lead California's 3rd largest city. The primary election is June 5, 2012 and November 6, 2012.

NY Gov Cuomo Issues Video Urging Marriage Equality Support

Celebrity Friday: Jackie Lacey Could Become LA County DA

Jacquelyn Lacey is the front runner to become the first female (and first African-American)
District Attorney of Los Angeles County

Los Angeles County District Attorney Steve Cooley announced that he would not be seeking a 4th term next year and endorsed the #2 person in the office, Chief Deputy District Attorney Jacquelyn Lacey as his replacement.

Jackie Lacey had already been running for Los Angeles County District Attorney. If she wins, she will become the first Black and first female District Attorney in Los Angeles County, the state's largest. Interestingly, Kamala Harris was the first Black female District Attorney of San Francisco and famously defeated Lacey's boss by a razor-thin margin to become California's first Black and first female Attorney General earlier this year.

Newt Gingrich: "The Good Ol' Boy" Who Wants To Be Prez

Newt Gingrich, with his 3rd wife (and former aide) Calllista

Newt Gingrich has a long and troubled history with making statements which are both counterfactual and controversial. His mendacity and mischievousness know almost no bounds.

Recently, the Republican presidential candidate has become decidedly non-elliptical in his racially charged remarks. Last week, Newt said this before a Republican audience:

Gingrich sought to lay blame for the recession, as well as the economic and social upheaval in Detroit, on Obama and his policies. “President Obama is the most successful food stamp president in American history,” Gingrich said. “I would like to be the most successful paycheck president in American history.”

Unfortunately for Newt it's not 1994 anymore, it's now 2011 so people like Salon's Joan Walsh and The Atlantic's Ta-Nehisi Coates have started to notice Newt's blatant appeals to racial prejudice:

But let me be clear: I might not have paid attention to Gingrich's "food stamp president" jibe had it not come along with a panorama of images designed to make clear Barack Obama is blackity black black. Praising right-wing Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Gingrich said he'll make the U.S. more like Texas, while Obama only "knows how to get the whole country to resemble Detroit." In the speech to Georgia Republicans where he tried out the "food stamp president" slur, Gingrich also told the bastion of the old Confederacy that 2012 would be the biggest election since 1860 -- you know, when Abraham Lincoln got elected and the South began to secede over slavery, commencing the Civil War. He also suggested the U.S. might need to bring back some kind of voting test, banned under the Voting Rights Act. Last year, of course, Gingrich denounced Obama's "Kenyan anti-colonialist behavior," which made him "outside our comprehension" as Americans, spreading the lie that Obama inherited angry African anti-colonialism from his absent African father, though he was raised by his white mother and grandparents. Oh, and he headed the drive to label Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor "racist" when she was nominated in 2009. 

So let's review: Welfare slur? Check. Tie to a troubled, mainly black city? Check. Specious association with African anti-colonialism? Check. Dire reference to Lincoln and the start of the Civil War, while campaigning deep in the heart of Dixie? Check. Suggestion we need a voter test? Check. Oh, and for good measure, calling liberals concerned about racial injustice "racist"? Check. Awesome: They've hit pretty much every way the GOP has used to divide Americans by race in the last 200 years! 

Great job, Newt. You've developed the perfect platform to run a spirited GOP campaign that attracts a cadre of aggrieved white people. You'll never be president of the United States, but you'll be the champion of the declining share of the country that still thrills to what we used to call dog-whistle politics: coded varieties of racism only understood by their intended audience.

It will be interesting to see if  other Republican candidates and politicians call Newt out for his racist remarks, or (more likely) they also use more subtly coded appeals to the predominantly pale populace's anxieties about racial progress. Interestingly, on This Week with Christiane Amanpour even George Will said that Newt "is not a serious candidate" for president.

Let's hope not.

Nate Silver Declares Marriage Equality Opponents In Minority

Good news! Polling guru Nate Silver has crunched the latest poll numbers (which I posted about yesterday) and has announced that he is confident that opposition to marriage equality is no longer a majority position. that fact is reflected in the graphic displayed above. It's still a bit too soon to say whether support for marriage equality is a majority or even plurality position thanks to the margin of error in the polls but the trend lines are VERY clear.

Nate ends his post at The New York Times with a cautionary note to Republicans:

But Republican candidates, who have placed less emphasis on gay marriage in recent years, probably cannot expect their opposition to it to be a net electoral positive for them except in select circumstances. If support for gay marriage were to continue accelerating as fast as it has in the past two years, supporters would outnumber opponents roughly 56-40 in the general population by November 2012. 

Past trends, of course, are no guarantee of future ones, and it’s always possible that the momentum toward increasing support for gay marriage could flatten out or even reverse itself. 

But this does put Republicans in a tricky position. Their traditional position on gay marriage is becoming less popular. But to the extent they disengage from the issue, they may lose even more ground. One way to read the trends of the past few years is that we have passed an inflection point wherein it is no longer politically advantageous for candidates to oppose same-sex marriage, which in turn softens opposition to it among the general public, creating a sort of feedback loop and accelerating the trend.

It should be interesting to see how heterosexual supremacists who are opposed to marriage equality, especially Republican presidential contenders, deal with these poll results, especially since the first two primary states, New Hampshire and Iowa, both have legalized marriage equality.

POLL: Democrats and Independents Support 2011 Budget Deal

Hat/tip to CNN Political Ticker

2012 U.S. House Distribution With 2010 Census Data

Factoring in the data from the 2010 Census, the above picture shows what is likely to be the electoral map that the 2012 national elections for the Presidency (just add +2 to every state to get the number of electoral votes it has, plus 3 for District of Columbia to get to 538) and the U.S. House of Representatives will be fought over.

Some good things are that Florida will be an even bigger deal than usual, and the influence of Ohio, Michigan and Missouri will be reduced. Unfortunately, the influence of Georgia, South Carolina and Arizona will be increased.

Hat/tip Joe.My.God.

Gov. Brown Ends Budget Negotiations With Republicans

Could have seen this coming a mile away. Governor Jerry Brown has ended THREE MONTHS of budget "negotiations" with Republican legislative leaders after it became increasingly clear he was simply dealing with hostage takers who were not really interested in the ransom. The California Republican Party will now become absolutely irrelevant to the governing of the state of California, since they have decided not to negotiate in good faith to provide the four votes necessary to reach two-thirds of both houses of the state legislature (Democrats have 52 of the 54 seats they need in the Assembly and 25 of the 27 seats they need in the Senate). NOTE: Although it only takes a majority vote to pass a budget now that Proposition 25 passed in November 2010, it still takes a two-thirds vote to enact any taxes, thanks to the odious Proposition 13.

Capitol Weekly has the call:

Brown, a Democrat, in a letter to Senate Republican Leader Bob Dutton, said the negotiations had focused for weeks on a spending cap, public pension issues and regulatory reform. Brown posted a YouTube video of his position here.

But, he said, Republicans late last week added dozens of separate demands, “many of which are new and have no relationship whatsoever to the budget.”

“From my count, your list today added almost two dozen new topics, including obscure aspects of labor law and shifting the presidential primary to March. In addition, your list of demands, if met, would undermine my entire budget proposal by undoing major elements and extending the taxes for only 18 months,” Brown wrote.

Recent figures show that the Republican Party currently has 30.4% party registration in California, compared to 44% for Democrats and 20% for Independents (a significant fraction, possibly a majority, are probably ex-Republicans). By abdicating any responsibility for acting reasonably to fix California's $26 billion 18-month budget deficit, Republicans have pushed themselves even closer to political obscurity.

Hopefully, Gov. Brown will have a better result in winning ballot measures to implement his vision of the California budget than former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger did. The Governator tried legislating by ballot box in 2005 and 2009 and was humiliated both times by the California eletcorate. Brown is a much smarter and talented politician, and is in his first year of office, so Californians may give him what he wants: a common sense balanced budget with shared sacrifice and contributions from all California constituencies.

WATCH: Gov. Brown Asks YOUR Help on CA Budge Impasse

CA-GOV: Whitman Blew $178.5 MILLION On Failed Bid

Billionaire dilettante politician and failed California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman spent an incredible $178.5 million dollars to lose race for California by 13 points to Jerry Brown last year, a report released on Monday revealed. Whitman apparently spent $144 million of her own estimated $1.2 billion fortune to win the Republican primary in June 2010 and lose the general election in November 2010.

There are now rumors that she is thinking of challenging U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein in 2012. That would be interesting, because I refuse to vote for DiFi again for anything so I would have to skip that race.