CA-36: Hahn Barely Leads Huey In Special Election

Janice Hahn (D) has a lead of 8 points over a Tea Party Republican
 in tomorrow's Congressional special election in the 36th District

Daily Kos has a new poll of the 36th Congressional district special election which should scare the bejeezus out of every Democrat in Southern California! In the special election between Democratic Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and Tea Party Republican businessman Craig Huey

Here are the poll results:

Janice Hahn (D): 52 

Craig Huey (R): 44 

Undecided: 4 

Margin of Error: ±3.9%

The margin of error is important. The spread between the candidates is a mere 8 points but the margin of error is ±3.9 which means that Hahn's lead could theoretically be 0.2 percentage points (or it could also be 15.8 points). Another interesting factor there is the undecided number: just 4 percentage points. That is pretty low, as it should be, since election day is tomorrow Tuesday July 12th. However, people in the 36th district have been voting absentee-by-mail for weeks. However, there is not so good news there for Hahn either.

Dave Catanese of Politico has these totals by the party registrations of those people who had requested vote-by-mail ballots as of Friday July 1st:

Republican/Libertarian — 13,343 

Democratic/Green — 14,035 

Non-affiliated — 5,512

Democrats/Greens outnumber Republican/Libertarian absentee voters by a mere 692 votes! However, in California, it is more likely than not that Hahn is winning the vast majority of the Decline To State ("Non-Affiliated") voters so in that case she should be going into tomorrow's election with a lead, but that's a BIG IF.
The 36th is a pretty tricky district, even if Obama carried by 30 points (64-34), which is a bit less than the 69-31 longtime incumbent Jane Harman had carried it by.

I fully expect Janice Hahn to replace Harman in Congress representing the 36th District tomorrow. It should be interesting to see what happens to the 36th District in the final round of redistricting and if Huey will have a better chance of unseating Hahn in a less partisan district.

Election Results for tomorrow can be found here at LAvote.net.

CA-36: Hahn Leads Primary, Bowen Currently 3rd

The preliminary results from yesterday's election in Los Angeles County are in and there are some surprises in the race to replace Jane Harman in the 36th Congressional District of California, CA-36.

Here are the numbers right now (as of 05/17/2011 23:27):

JANICE HAHN        DEM            13,137    24.66 
CRAIG HUEY         REP            11,648    21.87 
DEBRA BOWEN        DEM            11,442    21.48

Only the top two vote getters regardless of party advance to the July 12th run-off election, thanks to the nonsensical Proposition 14 which was passed by voters in June 2010 and is now in effect.

MadProfessah had endorsed California Secretary of State Debra Bowen as the true progressive in the race (U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein endorsed Hahn, blech!) so I was distressed to see her in 3rd position behind a self-financed Tea Party Republican candidate. However, there does seem to be some kind of indications that she may be able to pick up the 207 votes she needs to reach the #2 position. If that doesn't happen, then presumably Hahn would be the next Congressmember from the 36th District, and would set up another special election to fill her then-vacated Los Angeles City Council seat.

In better news, Scott Svonkin has almost certainly won his run-off against another tea Party Republican (named Lydia Gutierrez) for a seat on the Los Angeles Community College District Board. That race was the only contest on the ballot when I voted yesterday.

MN Senate Approve Prop 8 Copycat Measure 38-27

The Minnesota State Senate has approved a constitutional amendment by a vote of 38-27 that would ban marriage equality, despite the existence of a state statute that already bans the practice. In Minnesota, a constitutional amendment can be put on the ballot after passing the state legislature by a simple majority in one legislative session.

The discriminatory measure has been hotly debated with almost all Democrats opposing the measure and Republicans supporting it, generally with religious-based arguments about "defending marriage." A recent editorial in the state's largest newspaper blasted such thinking in opposition to the legislation and a video of testimony of State Rep. Steve Simon asking "How many more gay people does God have to create before we ask ourselves if he wants them around?" has gone viral.

Republicans won control of both houses and the measure is expected to pass the State House, as well. In the Senate, all but one Democrat opposed the measure and all Republican voted for it. In the House, there are 72 Republicans and 62 Democrats (before the 2010 election there were 47 Republicans and 87 Democrats). Just goes to tell you what Republicans do when they get majority control of legislative bodies.

The question which would be presented to voters if the Senate version of the amendment is approved by the Senate is:

Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?

So, with wording eerily similar to 2008's Proposition 8, in 2012 a NO vote would be needed to preserve the possibility of marriage equality in Minnesota, although marriage equality would be banned by statute in the status quo. A yes vote would insert the language into the constitution and would require another amendment to be  passed by voters to repeal it and enact marriage equality.

Hat/tip to TowleRoad and @xavierla

CANADA: Tories Win Majority; NDP Clear 2nd

The table below is courtesy Professor Andrew Heard of Simon Fraser University and illustrates the election results of the 2011 Canada federal elections, compared to the 2006 and 2006 elections.

						OTHER
2011 Seats % Votes	4 6.0	167 39.6	1 3.7	34 18.9	102 30.6	0 0.9
2008 Seats % Votes	49 10.0	143 37.6	- 6.8	77 26.2	37 18.2	2 1.2
2006 Seats % Votes	51 10.5	124 36.3	- 4.5	103 30.2	29 17.5	1 1.0

Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party won a huge victory last night, outpolling several published pre-election surveys handily to get 39.6% of the vote with the perennial thirds nearly doubling their previous best results to get 30.6% of the vote. Then official Opposition Party, the Liberals, received the lowest vote percentage in their long history, 18.9%, falling below 20% for the first time ever.

With a comfortable margin of a dozen over the required 155-seat total for a majority in the Canadian Parliament, Harper can be assured of being Prime Minister for at least 5 years before he needs to call another election.

Although that's disappointing, real progressives will be having a say in running the Canadian government, although in a parliamentary system, if you have the votes there are very little checks and balances for a majority government to enact its will.

POLL: NDP In Dead Heat With Tories In Canada Election

There are two new polls released Sunday which demonstrate that the perennial third party in Canadian politics has a fairly good chance of being first in the Monday May 2nd federal election.

Here is the Ekos poll:

May 1, 2011

National Federal Vote Intention
(committed voters only)

34.8% Conservative Party of Canada
32.4% New Democratic Party
20.4% Liberal Party of Canada
 5.7% Bloc Québécois
 5.6% Green Party of Canada

n=2,988

Here is the Forum research poll:

May 1, 2011

National Federal Vote Intention

35% Conservative Party of Canada
33% New Democratic Party
19% Liberal Party of Canada

However, as social democrat notes at DailyKos.com, this does not mean that NDP will end the election with  enough seats to lead the next Canadian government, due to the vagaries of the first-past-the-post parliamentary system.

CANADA: Progressives Now In 2nd, Polls Say

Canada is in the midst of their "snap elections: with voters going to the polls on Monday May 2. The current government is run by the Conservative party, with the Liberals being the official opposition. Previously, the Liberals held power in Canada for over a decade, losing power in 2006, with Stephen Harper becoming Prime Minister at the head of a minority government.

But,  now, a week before the next countrywide election, the New Democratic Party (NDP) is outpolling the Liberal party and could potentially form a government in coalition with the Green Party. Conventional wisdom has been that "NDP could never win" so most non-Conservatives outside of Quebec have generally been forced to vote for the Liberal party while holding their nose. This is a similar situation to what happens in the United kingdom with the three parties being the Conservatives (Tories), Labour and the Liberal Democrats. In last year's elections the Conservatives and LDP formed a Coalition government to replace more than a decade of Labour-led British governments. This was the first time in generations the perennial third party LDP had a meaningful role in government. Now it looks like that story may be repeating in Canada.

MadProfessah spent some time in Canada earlier this year and am something of a Canada-phile. I'll be looking at their election results next week with great interest!

Saturday Politics: Hahn and Bowen Battle Over CA-36

LA. City Councilperson Janice Hahn ((left) and CA Secretary of State Debra Bowen
are competing for a rare open Congressional seat

Open congressional seats  in California are like "blue moons": they don't come around that often. The last open seat was CA-33 when Diane Watson retired and was replaced by former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass. With the retirement of U.S. Representative Jane Harman, who was a hawk and a Blue Dog, progressives are salivating over the prospect of getting a true liberal to replace her in the 36th Congressional District which Barack Obama carried by over 30 points.

The Washington Post's Rachel Weiner notes:

The likely result of the May 17 primary fight, which features 11 total candidates including 2010 primary loser Marcy Winograd, is a July 12 runoff. Under California’s new primary system, if no candidate gets 50 percent in the primary, the two top vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to a runoff.

“I think its clear there’ll be a runoff,” said Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic consultant who is advising Hahn’s campaign.

Bowen holds statewide office and represented most of this district in the 1990s as a state legislator. Yet to hear her campaign tell it, she’s the outsider against Hahn.

The argument: Hahn has more endorsements and more money while Bowen has more grassroots support. A majority of her donors gave $200 or less. Democracy for America, a leading liberal organization, endorsed her after polling their members in the district. Her campaign is also quick to point out that Hahn has taken contributions from lobbyists.

As secretary of state, Bowen has been behind a number of initiatives that appeal to liberals, including work on ballot security. She has a long history of advocacy on environmental issues. She’s positioned herself as the anti-war candidate, trying to take some of the space occupied by Winograd, who ran against Harman in 2010 and took 41 percent.

The only poll of the race I have seen is an internal poll released by the Bowen campaign indicating a tie between Hahn and Bowen with 20 percent of the vote each, and Winograd back at 6 percent and openly gay Republican Mike Gin at 8 percent.

MadProfessah doesn't really know either of these candidates well, but I have been unimpressed with Hahn in the past when she ran (and lost) against Gavin Newsom for  Lieutenant Governor last year while Bowen has been endorsed by LGBT super-ally U.S. Representative Judy Chu (CA-32). Hahn has been endorsed by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and enemy-of-true-progressives everywhere U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein.

Los Angeles March 2011 Election Results

The March 8, 2011 Los Angeles City-wide election results are now available.

Proposition Me    Results
Measure G   Yes   74% YES
Measure H   Yes   75% YES
Measure I   Yes   78% YES
Measure J   Yes   81% YES
Measure L   Yes   63% YES
Measure M   Yes   59% YES
Measure N   Yes   70% YES
Measure O   Yes   51% NO
Measure P   Yes   66% YES
Measure Q   Yes   62% YES
Los Angeles City Council Races
LA CD 2     Krekorian* 76%
LA CD 4     Labonge*   55%
LA CD 6     Cardenas*  58%
LA CD 8     Parks*     50.89%
LA CD 10    Wesson*    73%
LA CD 12    Englander  58%
LA CD 14    Huizar*    64%
Los Angeles Community College District
Seat 1      Field*     59%
Seat 3      Veres      57%
Seat 5      Svonkin    35% (May 17 run-off)
Seat 7      Santiago*  66%
Los Angeles Unified School District
Seat 1      Lamotte*   74%
Seat 3      Galatzan*  62%
Seat 5      Sanchez    45.37% (May 17 run-off)
Seat 7      Vladovic*  63%

As you can see, most incumbents (indicated by the asterisk) were re-elected. In the hotly contested election in the gay-enclave of West Hollywood, one (appointed) incumbent, Lindsey Horvath failed to make the Top , placing 5th in preliminary results:

Scott Schmidt	1226
Lucas John	469
Abbe Land*	2548
Mark Gonzaga	474
Mito Aviles	919
Steve Martin	2026
John D'Amico	2471
Martin Topp	140
Lindsey Horvath	1902
John Heilman*	2359

Heilman has been on the West Hollywood City Council since the city was incorporated in 1984! The other two councilman, John Duran and Jeffrey Prang were not up for re-election, and Duran supported D'Amico. The West Hollywood City Council will now have 4 openly gay men and one straight woman.

Endorsements for March 8, 2011 L.A. Citywide Election

The March 8, 2011 Los Angeles Citywide elections are next Tuesday today! Please vote. Here are the endorsements of the Los Angeles Times, the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, the Stonewall Democratic Club and MadProfessah.

Proposition LA TIMES Stonewall LA County  Me
Measure G   Yes      Yes        Yes       Yes
Measure H   Yes      Yes        Yes       Yes
Measure I   Yes      Yes        Yes       Yes    
Measure J   Yes      Yes        Yes       Yes
Measure L   No       Yes        Yes       Yes
Measure M   No       Yes        Yes       Yes
Measure N   Yes      Yes        No        Yes
Measure O   No       Yes        Yes       Yes
Measure P   Yes       -         No        Yes
Measure Q   Yes       -         No        Yes
Los Angeles City Council Races
LA CD 2   Paul     Paul       Paul     Paul
LA CD 4   O'Grady  Labonge*   Labonge  --
LA CD 6   Goodman  Cardenas*  --       --
LA CD 8   Parks*   --         Parks*   Parks
LA CD 10  Wesson*  Wesson*    Wesson*  Wesson*
LA CD 12  Mitch    Brad       Brad      --
LA CD 14  Rudy     Jose*      Jose*     Jose*
Los Angeles Community College District
Seat 1   ---   Field*     Field*     Field*
Seat 3   ---   Veres      Veres      Veres
Seat 5   ---   Svonkin    Svonkin    Svonkin
Seat 7   ---   Santiago*  Santiago*  Santiago*
Los Angeles Unified School District
Seat 1  Lee       Lee       Lamotte*     Lee
Seat 3  Tamar*    Pugliese  Tamar*       ---
Seat 5  Sanchez   ---       ---          ---
Seat 7  Vladovic* ---       Vladovic*    ---

SD-28: Ted Lieu Wins Special Election

former Assemblymember Ted Lieu

Ted Lieu, a Democratic former 53rd District Assemblymember and strong LGBT ally, won Tuesday's special election in the 28th State Senate District to replace the late Jenny Oropeza. In the first election held under the state's open primary law, Lieu won 57.14% of the vote containing a field of 8 candidates from several parties.

In the 17th State Senate District Sharon Runner, the odious Republican co-author of numerous "tough on crime" ballot measures, won the special election to fill the seat formerly held by her husband George Runner, who was elected to the State Board of Equalization in November.

CA-36: Rep. Harman Announces Retirement

U.S. Rep. Jane Harman

Congressmember Jane Harman, Democrat representing California's 36th Congressional District, announced on Monday that she will be resigning from Congress to assume leadership of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Congressional seats are not subject to term limits and become available very rarely. The last open seat was the 33rd Congressional District seat won by Karen Bass in a barely contested race in June 2010. The last contested  Congressional seat was the 32nd Congressional District seat won by former State Assembyperson Judy Chu over former State Senator Gil Cedillo.

The names which have been bandied about as replacements for Harman are Los Angeles Councilmember Janice Hahn, Secretary of State Debra Bowen and Assemblymember Warren Furutani.