POLL: NJ Supports Marriage Equality 47%-42%

A new PPP poll of New Jersey voters shows that support for marriage equality is now the plurality position. In December 2009 a vote to legalize marriage equality failed when Governor-elect Chris Christie lobbied vigorously to kill the bill. New Jersey has had civil unions since December 2006, two months after the State Supreme Court ruled that the state must provide same-sex couples with all the rights and benefits of opposite sex couples but declined to legalize marriage equality.

While New Jersey failed to legalize same-sex marriage when it came to 
a vote in the state senate in 2010, now the Garden State is in favor of following in New 
York’s footsteps. By a 47-42 margin, New Jersey voters feel same-sex marriage should be legal. Those aged 30-45 come out strongest in support of legal same-sex marriage in New Jersey, with 55% in support and 35% opposed. New Jersey currently allows civil unions, and when they are added as an option, voters are split between marriage and civil unions. 41% favor marriage to 40% for civil unions, while 17% oppose all recognition. 


[...]

PPP surveyed 480 New Jersey voters from July 15th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Hat/tip to Talking Points Memo.

New Poll On New York Marriage Law

There is a new poll which asks Americans nationwide whether the legalization of marriage equality in New York state on July 24th is a positive or negative development. The results show that it depends on whether you are conservative Republican (and/or white evangelical Protestant) or not. If you are, you generally oppose it, if you're not you think it's a positive development.

Democrats and Republicans react in opposite ways to the new law, each facing stark internal divisions that may present challenges to building a winning coalition in 2012. Among Democrats, the divide is between the liberal base and those with conservative or moderate stripes. Liberal Democrats view the law positively by an overwhelming 74 to 25 percent margin. A smaller 54 percent majority of moderate and conservative Democrats say the same. Among African Americans, another loyal segment of the Democratic party coalition, more than six in 10 say the law is a negative development, while roughly one in three see it positively. Republicans broadly reject the law by a 2 to 1 margin, but alignment with the tea party movement complicates political calculations concerning the issue. More than seven in 10 Republicans who support the Tea Party movement view the New York law as a negative development.

This partisan divide in the electorate about marriage equality has been a frequent topic at this blog. Many people believe that the tipping point in favor of marriage equality becoming the law of the land has already reached.

Recently, researches at my alma mater have produced a model of conversion which indicates that when just 10% of a population has an implacable, unalterable position that view will eventually become the majority position, given enough time.

POLL: CA Voters Reject "Tough On Crime" Policies

Excellent news from California! In the midst of a financial meltdown California voters are beginning to realize that they can not continue to spend billions of dollars locking up non-violent criminal offenders in more and more prisons.

The Los Angeles Times reports:

The ailing economy far outweighs crime as the top concern for most people today, the pollsters said. That, along with the court order, could help explain voters' new receptivity to changes long sought by prisoner-rights advocates:

— More than 60% of respondents, including majorities among Democrats, Republicans and those who declined to state a party preference, said they would support reducing life sentences for third strike offenders convicted of property crimes such as burglary, auto theft and shoplifting.

— Nearly 70% said they would sanction the early release of some low-level offenders whose crimes did not involve violence.

— About 80% said they approve of keeping low-level, nonviolent offenders in county custody — including jails, home detention or parole — instead of sending them to state prisons. The same percentage favors paroling inmates who are paralyzed, in comas or so debilitated by advanced disease that they no longer pose a threat to public safety.

The pollsters noted that people don't generally favor the release of convicted criminals. But "when it comes to prisons," said Linda DiVall of American Viewpoint, "voters are looking for solutions that don't raise taxes or take money from other priorities like education."

Only 12% of respondents said they'd be willing to accept less state spending on healthcare or education to pay for more prisons. And less than a quarter of voters want to pay higher taxes to build prisons or ship inmates to private lockups in other states to comply with the courts.

This year the state plans to spend $9.8 billion on prisons, making it the third-highest general fund expenditure, behind education and healthcare.

"We spend such a large portion of our budget on crime and prison systems, and we get so little for it," said Amanda Hixson, 59, a Democrat from Sacramento.

Politicians determined to burnish their law-and-order credentials try to scare the public about releasing inmates early, Hixson said, "but some guy who's got three pot busts just isn't going to be that terrifying on the street."

I look forward to voting on ballot measures in 2012 which will finally end this madness which seeks o bankrupt the state by spending ridiculous amounts on criminal justice as compared to education.

CA-36: Hahn Barely Leads Huey In Special Election

Janice Hahn (D) has a lead of 8 points over a Tea Party Republican
 in tomorrow's Congressional special election in the 36th District

Daily Kos has a new poll of the 36th Congressional district special election which should scare the bejeezus out of every Democrat in Southern California! In the special election between Democratic Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and Tea Party Republican businessman Craig Huey

Here are the poll results:

Janice Hahn (D): 52 

Craig Huey (R): 44 

Undecided: 4 

Margin of Error: ±3.9%

The margin of error is important. The spread between the candidates is a mere 8 points but the margin of error is ±3.9 which means that Hahn's lead could theoretically be 0.2 percentage points (or it could also be 15.8 points). Another interesting factor there is the undecided number: just 4 percentage points. That is pretty low, as it should be, since election day is tomorrow Tuesday July 12th. However, people in the 36th district have been voting absentee-by-mail for weeks. However, there is not so good news there for Hahn either.

Dave Catanese of Politico has these totals by the party registrations of those people who had requested vote-by-mail ballots as of Friday July 1st:

Republican/Libertarian — 13,343 

Democratic/Green — 14,035 

Non-affiliated — 5,512

Democrats/Greens outnumber Republican/Libertarian absentee voters by a mere 692 votes! However, in California, it is more likely than not that Hahn is winning the vast majority of the Decline To State ("Non-Affiliated") voters so in that case she should be going into tomorrow's election with a lead, but that's a BIG IF.
The 36th is a pretty tricky district, even if Obama carried by 30 points (64-34), which is a bit less than the 69-31 longtime incumbent Jane Harman had carried it by.

I fully expect Janice Hahn to replace Harman in Congress representing the 36th District tomorrow. It should be interesting to see what happens to the 36th District in the final round of redistricting and if Huey will have a better chance of unseating Hahn in a less partisan district.

Election Results for tomorrow can be found here at LAvote.net.

EQME Plans 2012 Marriage Equality Ballot Measure

Well, well, well! The LGBT community will not only be playing defense of our civil rights in the 2012 election in Minnesota but will also be playing offense in Maine. 

Equality Maine has announced that they will be attempting to put this question before voters on the November 2012 ballot:

Do you favor a law allowing marriage licenses for same-sex couples that protects religious freedom by ensuring no religion or clergy be required to perform such a marriage in violation of their religious beliefs?

More interestingly, Equality Maine also released the information that marriage equality is a majority position in Maine, according to recent polls.

The Bangor Daily News reports:

“We’ve changed hearts and minds during ‘No on One,’ and since then, many more Mainers have changed their hearts and continue to change their minds,” said Smith in a Thursday release. “We have been going door to door, talking to them and hearing their journey toward support. In two separate polls, conducted over the last five months, 53 percent of Mainers surveyed said they support letting gay and lesbian couples marry here.”

[...]

Supporters must get 57,277 signatures to get the question on the November 2012 ballot.

Gay marriage supporters hope to build on momentum in Rhode Island and in New York, which earlier this month became the sixth state to allow gay marriage.

In 2009, Maine voters used a People's Veto to overturn a marriage equality bill by a vote of 53% to 47% on Question 1 that had been passed through the legislature and signed by Governor Baldacci at the time.

Another Poll Confirms Supermajority For NY Marriage Equality

Another poll (Quinnipiac) has confirmed that there is a large majority of support for marriage equality in New York:

Support for legislation allowing same-sex couples to marry is 58 - 36 percent, higher than ever while statistically unchanged from 56 - 38 percent April 14. Support is 72 - 23 percent among Democrats and 58 - 34 percent among independent voters, while Republicans are opposed 64 - 34 percent. There is little gender gap: men support same-sex marriage 58 - 37 percent, while women back it 59 - 34 percent. 

The poll also illustrates the trendlines for support for equality have been increasing over time:

TREND: Would Do you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?

SUPPORT... High Low Jun 02 Apr 14 Feb 24 Jan 27 Dec 16 Jun 02 Apr 15 2011 2011 2011 2011 2009 2011 2004 Support 58 56 54 56 47 58 37 Oppose 36 38 39 37 46 36 66 DK/NA 6 5 7 7 7 6 8

The question for State Senate Republicans is what side of history do they want to be on?

Obama's Job Approval Rating At 51%

REPORT: Why 2012 Is Not Year To Repeal Prop 8

There is a debate going on in California (again) about when (or if) the LGBT community should attempt to repeal Proposition 8 by circulating and passing a constitutional amendment to restore marriage equality in 2012.

REPORT ON WEST HOLLYWOOD TOWN HALL
The state's largest LGBT political advocacy group, Equality California, is hosting 12 town halls around the state seeking LGBT community input on the momentous decision to attempt to pass a ballot measure which would enact marriage equality and overrule Proposition 8. To that end, MadProfessah was invited to attend the 2nd of these events at the West Hollywood Auditorium on Sunday May 22 (Harvey Milk Day) as part of the panel. Other members were David Codell, a leading gay attorney who participated in the California marriage case and is one of the smartest legal minds in the state, Jim Carroll, interim Executive Director of Equality California, and Andrea Shorter, Director of Coalitions and Marriage at EQCA.

About 75 people showed up for the event which started a bit late at 5:45pm. Incoming EQCA Executive Director Roland Palencia was introduced to the crowd but did not say anything. During the event David explained that if a new constitutional amendment were to be passed then that would immediately make the Perry v Brown lawsuit moot. He also gave his opinion on the disposition of that case, making it clear that he felt it was very unlikely that the California Supreme Court would rule that the Proposition 8 proponents have standing to pursue the federal lawsuit when the Attorney General and Governor of the state have declined to defend the ballot measure in federal court. According to his timeline, oral arguments should happen in September with a ruling in December and the 9th Circuit ruling soon after that in early 2012. That would lead to a U.S. Supreme Court ruling sometime before June 2013. David also thought that the U.S. District Judge James Ware would quickly dispose of the offensive challenge to the original Perry v Schwarzenegger decision based on the sexual orientation of the judge, saying he was looking forward to reading the decision to see just how sharply the judge smacks down the heterosexual supremacists for making the ridiculous claim that a gay judge's sexuality or relationship status would have any impact on his ruling. David also made the point repeatedly that never in the history of America has any state passed a ballot measure to enact legislation to provide a right to LGBT people. There was a question from the audience about this later and I explained that there have been pro-gay ballot measure results (Maine 2005, Arizona 2006, Washington State 2009). Maine 2005 was the defeat of the repeal of a statewide gay civil right bill on employment. Arizona 2006 was the defeat of a measure to ban domestic partnerships and same-sex marriage (in 2008 Arizona passed  a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage only). Washington 2009 was the statewide approval of a referendum on a comprehensive domestic partnership law recently passed by the state legislature and signed by the Governor. These are all different situations from asking voters to overturn a previously passed initiative statute and constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage while a lawsuit is pending.

Jim Carroll's job was to give the results of a new poll about marriage equality conducted by Binder Research paid for by former Ambassador James Hormel and Love Honor Cherish. You may recall LHC was the group who moved forward with a Repeal Prop 8 campaign in 2010 (and failed to turn in any signatures) despite most of the LGBT community deciding in summer 2009 that this was not the right time to raise and spend tens of millions of dollars to pass a pro-gay ballot measure that year. Carroll presented a powerpoint which demonstrated that there has been very little change in public support for marriage equality since the last time the LGBT community polled in 2009. Carroll tried to educate the audience about the difference between polls of "adults" and polls of likely voters. California has 37 million people, and about 24 million adults, of which 21 million are registered to vote and about 15 million who are likely to vote in the next election. These 15 million are, on average, whiter, older and more conservative than the population as a whole which is "majority minority." The poll results Carroll discussed were for this group of likely voters.

THE LATEST POLLING RESULTS ON MARRIAGE EQUALITY IN CALIFORNIA
The topline result is that on the question of marriage equality, i.e. "Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to be legally married" the 2011 numbers are 45% Yes-45% No 10% Undecided compared to the 2009 numbers of 47% Yes 48% No 5% Undecided. This is a somewhat shocking result in the light of numerous national polls (Gallup, CNN)showing majority support in the adult population for marriage equality in the last 6 months or so.

Unsurprisingly, support for marriage equality varies depending on how you ask the question. For example, if the question is about repealing Proposition 8 there is majority support (51%). Note that the margin of error in the telephone poll of 900 likely voters May 10-14 (with oversampling in African-American and English-speaking Asian Pacific Islander communities) is 3.3 percentage points. Look at the graphic above to see that support in communities of color for marriage equality has slightly increased with opposition slightly decreasing.

Binder also polled on the question of explicitly adding a religious exemption to a ballot measure which legalizes same-sex marriage (and thus also implicitly repeals Proposition 8) and support went down from the repeal Prop 8 numbers.

Would you vote yes or no on a ballot initiative that would legalize civil marriage for same-sex couples, on the condition that clergy or religious institutions are never required to perform a marriage that goes against their religious beliefs?

47% Yes 43% No 10% Undecided

Binder calls this an increase in support because the 47% number is higher than the 45% baseline support for the marriage equality question. However, the question "Would you vote yes or no on a ballot initiative that would legalize civil marriage for same-sex couples" was not included in the poll. The assumption is that the results of this question would track identically with the results on the marriage equality question.

In fact, in a bizarre case of fallacious reasoning Binder lumps all the respondents who said they support marriage equality OR repealing Proposition 8 OR would vote yes on a ballot measure with a religious exemption and comes up with a support of 58% Yes and 34% No. The notion that you can presume that people who will vote for a measure that does ONE of these things will also vote for a measure which does ALL of these things is simply ridiculous. (Mathematical geek aside: There is a huge logical difference between an OR and an AND.)

WHY TRYING TO REPEAL PROP 8 IN 2012 IS A BAD IDEA
All in all, I went into the Town Hall undecided and left pretty convinced that a 2012 ballot measure campaign to restore marriage equality to California is a bad idea. Especially when there is a pending federal court challenge which may not only restore marriage equality in California but support the legal argument to strike down the 30 other constitutional amendments which ban marriage equality around the nation. There are numerous other states which will likely have anti-gay marriage measures on the ballot (Minnesota, North Carolina and Indiana) and there may be states which have affirmative pro-gay measures on the ballot (Oregon and Maine). For the amount of money it takes to expand California from civil unions to full marriage equality one could have a good shot of winning one or both of the affirmative measures and possibly defeating one or some of the anti-gay measures. Nationally, it just doesn't make sense to me to spend 30-plus million dollars to enact marriage equality in California when there are states which do not have basic laws banning discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation (29) and gender identity (38).

We shall see what happens in the future, since EQCA says they will report back to the community in September 2011. LHC says that we can file ballot language and collect signatures before the California Supreme Court rules on the standing issue. Depending on the decision, the signatures do not have to be submitted. I'm not opposed to this idea, but I think it will be very very difficult to not submit the signatures to the secretary of state in March 2012 if either the Cal Sup. Ct. or  9th Circuit doesn't rule our way. Of course if a measure does get submitted and qualified I would support it, not monetarily but I would vote for it.

I just think that 2012 is not the right year to repeal Proposition 8. In order to make that decision to move forward I have three pre-conditions which need to be met: 1) Show majority support outside of the margin of error for marriage equality in the state in multiple polls 2) Significant (7 digit) quantities of money in the bank and 3) a open, accountable leadership structure and detailed plan for how to run a statewide ballot measure campaign.

Analyzing Poll Data On Interracial Marriage Equality

In 1948, the California Supreme Court ruled in Perez v Sharp that the state's prohibition on interracial marriages was invalid. That was the first state Supreme Court decision to strike down an anti-miscegenation statute. 10 years later a national poll of Americans by Gallup in September 1958 showed that 94% of respondents disapproved of "marriages between blacks and whites." The United States Supreme Court did not invalidate all remaining laws banning interracial marriage (which were still on the books in 16 states) until 1967, and a year later a mere 20 percent of respondents approved of interracial marriages (73 percent disapproved) in a June 1968 Gallup poll. It was not until the mid-1990s that a majority of poll respondents said that they approved of interracial marriage equality.

In 2004, the Massachusetts Supreme Court decision Goodridge v. Department of Public Health went into effect, legalizing marriages between same-sex couples on May 17. At the time 42% of Americans approved of marriage equality, with 55 percent disapproving of civil marriages between same-sex couples. As I noted yesterday, it is only in 2011 that Gallup has shown majority support for marriage equality nationwide, even though there are only 5 states and the District of Columbia where the practice is legal.

Hat/tip to Zack Ford.

Gallup Shows Majority Support For Marriage Equality 53-45

This is big news! The Gallup Organization, the most respected polling outfit in the United States, has announced that a majority of Americans support the right of same-sex couples to be married with the same rights and responsibilities as "traditional marriages."

This year's nine-point increase in support for same-sex marriage is the largest year-to-year shift yet measured over this time period. Two-thirds of Americans were opposed to legalized same-sex marriage in 1996, with 27% in favor. By 2004, support had risen to 42% and, despite some fluctuations from year to year, stayed at roughly that level through last year.

Democrats' and Independents' Greater Acceptance Shifts the Balance

Democrats' and independents' support for legalized same-sex marriage increased this year by 13 and 10 points, respectively. Republicans' views on the issue did not change from last year. Clear majorities of both Democrats and independents now support gay marriage, 69% and 59% respectively, contrasted with 28% support among Republicans.

Majorities of moderates and liberals support gay marriage, as they did last year, contrasted with 28% of conservatives.

As Daily Kos put it, the Party that has the biggest problem with reality (Republicans) registered absolutely no change in opinion on marriage equality in the last year.

This is actually not surprising. Researchers at Harvard about implicit versus explicit bias have found that Republicans are the only group whose self-reported (explicit) bias against LGBT people is actually larger than their unconscious (implicit) bias. In other words, being homophobic or being publicly identified as homophobic actually reinforces Republicans view of their self-identity.  Thus they are more likely to publicly identify themselves with the anti-gay policy position than they truly believe.

What is so interesting about this result is that it flips the narrative on its head about whether marriage equality is "controversial" or a minority view point. Marriage equality support is a majority position. The next question is whether elected representatives will reflect this reality in the near future.

MN Poll Shows 55% Oppose Anti-Gay Marriage Amendment

A poll has been released which shows that the proposed "Son of Prop 8" constitutional amendment in Minnesota to ban marriage equality is facing majority opposition 55% against, 39% for. Although this is encouraging news, I    would remind folks that early in the Proposition 8 fight there were multiple polls showing 55+ percent opposition to Proposition 8 and after a public advertising campaign filled with lies and deceit the ballot measure passed 53-47 in California in November 2008.

The more important poll question in Minnesota is whether a majority of likely voters supports marriage equality, if they do, and a good campaign is run, then there's a chance (small one, I believe) of defeating the proposed discriminatory amendment to Minnesota's constitution at the ballot in 2012.

Obama Approval Ratings Up Sharply

Barack Obama's approval ratings have recently moved up sharply, as indicated by the graphs shown here. Note the steep uptick starts around May 1st, which is the day that President Obama announced Osama Bin Laden was dead.

In fact, today the Washington Post is reporting that Obama's approval rating is the highest it has been in 2 years.

Overall, Obama’s approval rating is up slightly from 53 percent in March and a 47 percent low point following last fall’s midterm congressional elections, in which Republicans won control of the House and gained seats in the Senate. It was 64 percent in May 2009, just months after he was sworn into office. 

[...] 

In another finding, 53 percent in the latest poll say Obama deserves to be re-elected, while 43 percent say he should be fired, the first time in an AP-GfK poll that more people say he should get a second term than not.

Good news!

Hat/tip to Talking Points Memo.

Majority Supports Path To Citizenship For Undocumented Immigrants

Matt Yglesisas posts this graphic demonstrating the results of a  poll which says that a majority of the public supports President Obama's position on immigration reform: we should include a path to citizenship for people who are living in the United States right now without the required legal documentation to work or immigrate. (This is what Republican conservatives like to call "amnesty.") Note that even staunch conservatives are split evenly on the question "Do you favor or oppose providing a way for illegal immigrants currently in the country to gain legal citizenship if they pass background checks, pay fines and have jobs?"

On a related note, Arizona is appealing it's illegal scheme to attempt to regulate immigration (better known as SB 1070) to the United States Supreme Court. Every federal court that has looked at SB 1070 has ruled it unconstitutional so far.

Poll Reveals Post-Partisan Views On Marriage Equality

There is an interesting poll result from Pew which has tried to tease out the various groups in the Democratic and Republican coalitions and tried to identify how they split when confronted with specific public policy positions, like marriage equality. Pew calls these groups "political typologies."

Today, Staunch Conservatives take extremely conservative positions on nearly all issues – on the size and role of government, on economics, foreign policy, social issues and moral concerns. Most agree with the Tea Party and even more very strongly disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance. A second core group of Republicans – Main Street Republicans – also is conservative, but less consistently so.

On the left, Solid Liberals express diametrically opposing views from the Staunch Conservatives on virtually every issue. While Solid Liberals are predominantly white, minorities make up greater shares of New Coalition Democrats – who include nearly equal numbers 0f whites, African Americans and Hispanics – and Hard-Pressed Democrats, who are about a third African American. Unlike Solid Liberals, both of these last two groups are highly religious and socially conservative. New Coalition Democrats are distinguished by their upbeat attitudes in the face of economic struggles.

Independents have played a determinative role in the last three national elections. But the three groups in the center of the political typology have very little in common, aside from their avoidance of partisan labels. Libertarians and Post-Moderns are largely white, well-educated and affluent. They also share a relatively secular outlook on some social issues, including homosexuality and abortion. But Republican-oriented Libertarians are far more critical of government, less supportive of environmental regulations, and more supportive of business than are Post-Moderns, most of whom lean Democratic.

Disaffecteds, the other main group of independents, are financially stressed and cynical about politics. Most lean to the Republican Party, though they differ from the core Republican groups in their support for increased government aid to the poor. Another group in the center, Bystanders, largely consign themselves to the political sidelines and for the most part are not included in this analysis.

These are the principal findings of the political typology study by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, which sorts Americans into cohesive groups based on values, political beliefs, and party affiliation. The new study is based on two surveys with a combined sample of 3,029 adults, conducted Feb. 22-Mar. 14, 2011 and a smaller callback survey conducted April 7-10, 2011 with 1,432 of the same respondents

It is very notable that the Pew poll shows an almost even split on the question of marriage equality overall, 46% opposed, 45% in favor, with very strong support among Liberals (85% yes, 9% no) and Post-Moderns (80% yes, 14% No). These are the only groups that show a net support for marriage equality, but except for Staunch Conservatives (85% No, 9% Yes) most groups are more evenly split in their opposition, leading to the ultimate split overall.

POLL: NDP In Dead Heat With Tories In Canada Election

There are two new polls released Sunday which demonstrate that the perennial third party in Canadian politics has a fairly good chance of being first in the Monday May 2nd federal election.

Here is the Ekos poll:

May 1, 2011

National Federal Vote Intention
(committed voters only)

34.8% Conservative Party of Canada
32.4% New Democratic Party
20.4% Liberal Party of Canada
 5.7% Bloc Québécois
 5.6% Green Party of Canada

n=2,988

Here is the Forum research poll:

May 1, 2011

National Federal Vote Intention

35% Conservative Party of Canada
33% New Democratic Party
19% Liberal Party of Canada

However, as social democrat notes at DailyKos.com, this does not mean that NDP will end the election with  enough seats to lead the next Canadian government, due to the vagaries of the first-past-the-post parliamentary system.

Nate Silver Declares Marriage Equality Opponents In Minority

Good news! Polling guru Nate Silver has crunched the latest poll numbers (which I posted about yesterday) and has announced that he is confident that opposition to marriage equality is no longer a majority position. that fact is reflected in the graphic displayed above. It's still a bit too soon to say whether support for marriage equality is a majority or even plurality position thanks to the margin of error in the polls but the trend lines are VERY clear.

Nate ends his post at The New York Times with a cautionary note to Republicans:

But Republican candidates, who have placed less emphasis on gay marriage in recent years, probably cannot expect their opposition to it to be a net electoral positive for them except in select circumstances. If support for gay marriage were to continue accelerating as fast as it has in the past two years, supporters would outnumber opponents roughly 56-40 in the general population by November 2012. 

Past trends, of course, are no guarantee of future ones, and it’s always possible that the momentum toward increasing support for gay marriage could flatten out or even reverse itself. 

But this does put Republicans in a tricky position. Their traditional position on gay marriage is becoming less popular. But to the extent they disengage from the issue, they may lose even more ground. One way to read the trends of the past few years is that we have passed an inflection point wherein it is no longer politically advantageous for candidates to oppose same-sex marriage, which in turn softens opposition to it among the general public, creating a sort of feedback loop and accelerating the trend.

It should be interesting to see how heterosexual supremacists who are opposed to marriage equality, especially Republican presidential contenders, deal with these poll results, especially since the first two primary states, New Hampshire and Iowa, both have legalized marriage equality.

POLL: CNN Shows Marriage Equality Support 51%-47%

CNN becomes the latest national polling outfit to show majority support for marriage equality. In a poll taken between April 9-10, 2011 51% of respondents agreed that "marriages between gay and lesbian couples should be recognized by the law as valid with the same rights as traditional marriages" while 47% disagreed. The margin of error is 3.5 points, so although the top line is heartening, I would not bet a  40+ million dollar ballot measure campaign on such numbers. It should be noted that the 51-47 advantage is an under-estimate for marriage equality  since the demographic most strongly in support of marriage equality, those under 34 are absent from the poll!

CNN also released the details of the internals of the poll, which show that women support equality 57-40 while men oppose the concept 45-54. Why do you think men are so homophobic? Perhaps they realize that gender-neutral marriages indicate the end of patriarchy?

Interestingly, in the same poll, the legalization of marijuana is opposed by Americans, 56% to 41%.

POLL: Donald Trump Leads Republican Presidential Contenders

The results of this PPP poll of Republican presidential contenders is pretty amazing:

Donald Trump (R):  26 

Mike Huckabee (R):  17 

Mitt Romney (R): 15 

Newt Gingrich (R):  11 

Sarah Palin (R):  8 

Ron Paul (R):  5 

Michele Bachmann (R):  4 

Tim Pawlenty (R):  4 

Someone else/Undecided: 10

Trump has been making the media outlet rounds declaring his fealty for birtherism, homophobia, womb control and Christ. In other words, the perfect Republican nominee. I'm pretty sure the White House is just sitting back, licking their chops.

POLL: New Yorkers Support Marriage Equality 58%-36%

Great news from New York! A new Siena College poll shows a clear super-majority support for marriage equality in the Empire State. Click on the image above to see the details of the poll internals but almost every single demographic supports equal marriage rights for same-sex couples in New York (Democrats, Independents, Men, Women, African-Americans, Latinos, White, etc). The only groups to oppose marriage equality are Protestants (41-50), Republicans (45-48) and  55+ Seniors (45-46).

Freedom To Marry's Evan Wolfson says:

This latest poll reporting that a super-majority of New Yorkers supports the freedom to marry shows New Yorkers get it.  Now it's time for the state Senate to do it.

New Yorkers understand that ending marriage discrimination helps families while hurting no one, that New York needs to lead in treating all people fairly.  Freedom to Marry is working closely with Governor Cuomo, legislative leaders, and our partner organizations to end marriage discrimination here this spring, and whether through phone calls, legislative visits, or conversations that prompt more people to take action, now is the time for everyone to pitch in and win New York.

The New York State Senate killed a marriage equality bill in December 2009 when Democrats had a 2-vote majority. Now the Republicans hold the majority but have promised a vote on the bill, even though the entire Republican caucus voted against the marriage equality bill last time (along with 8 treacherous Democrats, several of whom have been defeated in primaries or left the State Senate due to their own criminality and venality).

POLL: Democrats and Independents Support 2011 Budget Deal

Hat/tip to CNN Political Ticker