UPSET #2! Tsonga Beats Federer 2nd Time In A Row!

The day after the tennis world was stunned by Rafael Nadal losing his first match played in nearly 5 weeks a second thunderbolt is reverberating from the news that Roger Federer lost to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for the second consecutive time today. The score was 7-6(3) 4-6 6-1.

Novak Djokovic showed why he is the new World #1 by increasing to 50 wins and one loss for the season by defeating Marin Cilic 7-5 6-3.

This is just more evidence that the end of the tennis era dominated by Federer and Nadal is coming to an end, perhaps sooner than we think.

SHOCK! Nadal Loses 2nd Consecutive Match

World #2 Rafael Nadal lost his second match in a row for the first time since 2009 when he went down 1-6 6-7(5) 6-7(5) against Croatian Ivan Dodig at the Rogers Masters tournament in Quebec. World #3 Roger Federer, who turned 30 years old on Monday August 8, and World #1 Novak Djokovic both won their first matches since Wimbledon easily in straight sets.

Djokovic improved to a stratospheric 49-1 for the year, having won 7 titles including the Australian Open (d. Murray) and Wimbledon (d. Nadal) while Federer is at 40-9 with only one title but also one very important victory over Djokovic (at the French Open). Next up for Federer is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who eliminated him in the Wimbledon quarterfinals this year.

World #4 Andy Murray also lost his first match back, despite winning this title the last 2 years in a row. Still in the tournament are Juan Martin del Potro, Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Djokovic Beats Nadal For 3rd Major

Getty

Novak Djokovic's miraculous 2011 season continues! As I predicted, the 24-year-old Serb beat 2-time defending Wimbledon champion Rafael Nadal in four sets 6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3 to win his 48th match of the year (compared to one loss), 8th ATP tour title of the year, 2nd major (he also won the Australian Open) of the year and 1st Wimbledon title.

It is Djokovic's 4th major title in his career, and he improves to 16 losses and 12 wins against now World #2 Nadal. Djokovic will become the 25th player to top the ATP Tour rankings in their history when the new list comes out on Monday. For the previous 7 1/2 years either Federer or Nadal had been #1 since Andy Roddick relinquished the top spot on 2 February 2004.

How He Did It
The 2011 Wimbledon final did not live up to its potential to be an instant classic of the level of the 2008 or 2009 finals. Both players came out serving in the 80% level and playing extremely well (though Nadal was making more forehand errors than usual) until suddenly at 4-5 Nadal shots started falling shorter in the court and he faced his first and only break point of the set which he lost with an error as he aimed for a down-the-line forehand which fell a foot wide.

This was the beginning of a 10-minute bad stretch for the Spaniard as Djokovic held to start the first set and then broke Nadal after reaching a drop shot and gently pushing it cross-court instead of down the line as Nadal expected. Another quick service hold and the Serbian was up 6-4, 3-0. Nadal was able to steady himself and the two traded holds when suddenly he was serving at 1-4 Nadal got into trouble again at 30-40 and during a long rally he slipped on the grass and slightly mishit a forehand into the net. Nadal was able to quickly serve out the set and grab a 6-4, 6-1 stranglehold on the match.

However, in the 3rd set Djokovic's level dropped immediately and he faced his first break point of the match in his very first service game which he lost with a tentative backhand into the net. Nadal held at love with Djokovic only getting one service return into play to go up 3-0. Both players held their next service games but it was clear that Djokovic was not playing as well as he had  in the first two sets. His service percentage plummeted to below 50% and he started making many more errors. This was capped when at 1-4 Djokovic hit his one and only double fault of the match on breakpoint to essentially concede the 3rd set, which Nadal wrapped up a few minutes later at 6-1.

The fourth set was where the match was decided and Djokovic was able to get an early break after saving a break in his very first service game and going on to hold his service game to go up 2-0. But, amazingly Nadal was able to break back (thanks to some good luck: at 1-2, 30-40 Nadal hit a slice backhand return which clipped the top of the tape and dropped a few inches on the other side of the net) to even the set again. Serving at 3-4 Nadal had another momentary lapse where he started the service game with a double fault and a quick forehand error to go down 0-30. The next point was crucial: Nadal placed an excellent down the tee first serve which Djokovic got back with interest but Nadal pulled him wide on both sides of the court which the Serbian was able to get back and on the third attempted winner Nadal hooked the ball into the net to go down 0-40. After saving the 0-40 point with a good serve and return of service-return forehand winner a few inches inside the line. At 15-40 after a 14-stroke rally Nadl's 15th stroke was atired-looking backhand which flew several feet long to give Djokovic the opportunity to serve out the match. Djokvic started with a forehand error to go down 0-15 but then Nadal hit two forehand errors to give the Serbian 30-15. Nadal played a great forehand down the line forcing a Djokovic error to bring the score back to 30-30. Djokovic served out wide to Nadal's backhand and followed it in to volleye the weak return into the open court for his first serve-and-volley point of the match. On match point Djokovic served down the tee to Nadal's backhand which produced a weak reply that the Serbian hit a forehand into the corner with topspin dragging Nadal off the court and he went for an attempted backhand down the line winner which flew several feet long and Djokovic won the point, game set and champion.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Final Preview

Novak Djokovic SRB (2) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (1)

How They Got Here.
Novak Djokovic played the most entertaining match of the fortnight against Jo-Wifried Tsonga, who was trying to repeat the amazing level of play which allowed him to dismiss 6-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer in 5-sets after dropping the first two by dropping his serve in the first game of the match and holding serve in twenty-four consecutive service games to beat the Swiss great 3-6 6-7(3) 6-4 6-4 6-4. Djokovic was pushed by Tsonga to four sets, eventually winning 7-6(4) 6-2 6-7(9) 6-3. Tsonga mounted a challenge despite being down 4-2 in the 3rd set after winning an amazing exchange where both combatants ended face down on the grass. The crowd applauded ecstatically which caused both players to relax. This was a plus for Tsonga and a minus for Djokovic who was broken in the next service game and then lost a tight tiebrekaer despite having two match points.

Rafael Nadal has now won 20 matches in a row at Wimbledon dating back to his 2007 five-set  loss in the final to Federer. Although Andy Murray was able to win the first set 7-5 through aggressive play (and an uncharacteristically sloppy sixth service game by Nadal). This was incredibly important moment for the Scot's tennis future to show that he could win a set against Nadal in a crucial match but  Murray had a momentary mental lapse (hitting a sitter overhead meters out of the court) which led to an early break in the second set. That, combined with an apparent groin injury made the result of the match very clear as the third and fourth sets slipped away quckly. The result was a 5-7 6-2 6-2 6-4 win to place the Spaniard in his 5th consecutive Wimbledon final (skipping the 2009 tournament due to injury).

The Match Up
Head-to-head Nadal leads Djokovic 16-11, but the Serbian has played Nadal in 4 finals this year and won every time, including (shockingly!) two wins in clay court finals (in Madrid and Rome). The only person who has beaten Djokovic in over seven months is Roger Federer, after playing some of the best clay court tennis he has ever exhibited in Paris this yearin the semifinals of Roland Garros. Let me repeat that: Djokovic has won 47 matches in 2011 and only lost one. Can he continue his amazing run now that he has had to play at a stratospheric level of near-perfection to reach his lifetime goal of becoming World #1? How long can he possibly maintain this form? Can anyone possibly beat Nadal in five consecutive finals?

The first thing Nadal mention is that this match is played at a major so it is the first time during Djokovic's streak they are playing best-of-five-sets tennis. It is also a historic moment, the winner of the first major of 2011 playing against the winner of the second major of 2011. Nadal unquestionably has more experience at this level; Djokovic is only playing in his 5th major final, where he has won 2 (against Tsonga in the 2008 Australian Open final and against Murray in the 2011 Australian final) and lost two (2007 US Open final to Federer and 2010 US Open final to Nadal). Nadal is in his 13th major final, sporting an impressive 10-2 record, with the two losses in finals coming here at Wimbledon in 2006 and 2007 to the third member of the historic "trivalry," Roger Federer.

Mentally, I believe Djokovic has the edge in Sunday's match. Nadal hasn't even really been close in the last two matches they have played on clay which has got to worry him at important moments, especially if Djokovic gets off to a quick start. The only major finals Nadal has ever lost have been on grass and although Djokovic has never won a set against Nadal on the surface, Nadal knows that person he played then (in the 2007 Wimbledon semifinal and the 2008 Queens club final) is not the same person he will be facing on Sunday. That streak will almost certainly end.

The ATP website has a very interesting summary of the two player's performances at Wimbledon to date which seems to indicate Nadal has played at a slightly higher level. Nadal has an astonishing 113 forehand winners and (a paltry) 29 backhand winners compared to 35 forehand errors and 19 backhand errors. Djokovic has 62 forehand winners and 49 backhand errors compared to 46 forehand errors and 37 backhand errors. Nadal is listed as having had an amazing 244 winners and 60 errors (+184) over 6 rounds while Djokovic has a mere 199 winners and 99 errors (+100).

Their serves are equivalently effective: Nadal is serving at 70% in while Djokovic is at 68%. The Spaniard has served 44 aces to 6 double faults while the Serbian has served 54 aces and 15 double faults, which is basically about even.

Who Will Win

I tend to go with the idea that the person with the more effective serve will win the match unless the serve can be counteracted by superior movement and better service returning. With serves basically at a draw, I give Nadal the slight edge in movement but Djokovic the edge in returning. I believe the match will be very very close, probably on the level of the incredible Wimbledon finals of 2008 (Greatest Match Of All Time won by Nadal over Federer) and 2009 (won by Federer over Andy Roddick).

MadProfessah's Prediction: Djokovic in 3 or 4 sets OR Nadal in 5 sets.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Djokovic Becomes World #1; Reaches Final

As I predicted, Novak Djokovic defeated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 7-6(4) 6-2 6-7(9) 6-3 in the 2011 Wimbledon semifinals to win his astonishing 47th match of the year (out of 48 played) and claim the World #1 ranking for the first time.

The only person to beat Djokovic all year is Roger Federer and Tsonga beat him on Wednesday. I really don't see either player (Rafael Nadal or Andy Murray) from the other semifinal stopping the 24-year-old Nole from winning his first Wimbledon title (and 8th title of the year) on Sunday.

Congrats to the new #1 from Serbia!

WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011.

Last year I predicted 1 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 0 of 2 men's semifinals correctly. This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. 

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). For the second year in a row, Andy Murray's goal to win his country's Grand Slam must go through World #1 Rafael Nadal.

 Head-to-head Nadal leads 11-4 with a 2-0 record on grass (2010 Wimbledon semifinal and 2008 Wimbledon quarterfinal). With Nadal allegedly not at 100 percent fit to play (a claim I am somewhat skeptical of) I think this gives Murray the best chance he has ever had to date to end the long drought of having a male British citizen appear in the Wimbledon final, let alone actually win the bloody thing. The four times Murray has beaten Nadal he has done it on hard courts with very strong serving, combined with first strike tennis using the forehand cross-court and the backhand down-the-line to Nadal's backhand. Murray is an excellent defender and loves to play long grueling points to demonstrate his fitness and mentally exhaust his opponents. This is exactly the wrong game plan against the (almost psychotically) mentally tough Spaniard.

Nadal has lost four consecutive times to Novak Djokovic this year because Djokovic has been getting multiple free points on his improved serve and is ridiculously flexible and strong enough to convert balls hit from defensive positions instantaneously  into offense. Murray can get free points on his serve if he serves well (i.e. in the 130 mph) but he shouldn't even THINK about playing defense. The way to beat Nadal is relatively clear: you have to bash him off of a very fast court (c.f. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's 2008 Australian Open semifinal win, Juan Martin del Potro's 2009 U.S. Open semifinal win, Murray's own 2010 Australian Open quarterfinal win).

Basically you have to be prepared to hit 4 or 5 winners to win a single point and not get frustrated about doing it for two or three hours. Murray has been in 3 career Grand Slam finals so far and has failed to win a set in any of them. For all intents and purposes, this semifinal (just like last year's Wimbledon semifinal) is even more important than a final to Murray's career. So, if past performance is a predictor of future performance, Murray will under-perform his ability and lose in 3 sets to Nadal again. However, I strongly believe that Murray is getting closer and closer to a breakthrough and one indication was his strong showing in the 2011 French Open semifinal against Nadal (which Murray lost in straight sets but he had a LOT of chances, which he was unable to convert). I believe he will take that experience of having opportunities in Paris and the strong crowd support in London to give him a very decent chance to win this match and warm the hearts of a nation. PREDICTION: Nadal in 3 OR Murray in 4 or 5 sets.

Roger Federer SUI (3) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2).

This is also a match which is "bigger" than a Grand Slam final, to one of the competitors (Djokovic), at least. If the Serb wins, he will be ranked World #1 for the first time in his career. If the Frenchman wins he would be the first of his countrymen to be in the Wimbledon final in the Open era. There are far fewer men (24) who have been ranked World #1 at some point since the rankings began in 1973 than have won a major final in that time period (almost 60).  It just so happens that this match-up is a reprise of the 2008 Australian Open final, won by Djokovic, but since that first encounter Tsonga has won 5 of 6 matches the two have played, including a stunning 5-set win in the 2010 Australian Open quarterfinals. The 2008 Australian Open final is an instructive match to analyze in understanding the dynamics between the two players because then, like now, Tsonga is coming off the biggest win of his career (in 2008 a surprisingly vicious beat down of Nadal in the Australian Open semifinal, in 2011 a stunning dismissal of Roger Federer in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon).

Then, Tsonga didn't start the match playing his best tennis until the second set and Djokovic exploited the lead to run away with the match and the title. However, it must be noted that what Tsonga achieved Roger Federer had not happened in 178 of the Swiss Great's 5-set Grand Slam matches--he lost the first two sets and then won the match (rather comfortably) with an early service break in each subsequent set and denying his opponent even a sniff at breaking his own.

Djokvic is a much better service returner than Federer so it's doubtful that strategy will work again but Tsonga has so much talent there are others that could work (serve and volley as much as possible, deny pace to Djokovic and then suddenly blast the ball for a winner) and most of all, Tsonga believes he can win. Djokovic has played 47 matches so far in 2011 and won 46 of them. This is an astonishing feat. Lately, his opponents have gotten closer and the new unbeatable Djokovic has shown some of the familiar tics of the old, retiring Djokovic, but I still believe that somehow, Nole will find a way to fulfill his destiny and win the match and reach the pinnacle of men's tennis.  PREDICTION: Djokovic.  

WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Roger Federer                                                   © AELTC/S.Wake

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. Last year's I correctly predicted the results of 1 of 4 men's quarterfinals right before I got on a plane to London to attend the men's final. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Tomas Berdych CZE (6) Mardy Fish USA (10). Who would have thought that the last American player remaining in the draw at Wimbledon deep in the second week would be Mardy Fish? The American took out last year's Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych by exposing the 6'5" Czech mobility deficit with blistering groundstrokes into the corners and confident volleys following very big serves. Nadal was lucky to escape his meeting with Juan Martin del Potro in the 4th round but did not come away unscathed; apparently there is a foot or heel injury which is invisible to MRIs but which caused Nadal to take a 9-minute injury time-out at 6-all in the first set. The 2-time defending champion won that 1st set tie-break (despite being 0-3 down) and went on to win the match 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4. Mardy has only one won set against Nadal in 5 career meetings, but all of their matches were played before Fish transformed himself by losing 30 pounds and dedicating himself to fitness. The results have been extraordinary: he is now the top rated American male and will likely be so for the foreseeable future. Unless Nadal's injury plays a factor, I still don't see Fish advancing from his first Wimbledon quarterfinal to his first Wimbledon semifinal. PREDICTION: Nadal.

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Feliciano Lopez ESP. The only drama in this match will be who will be the first to mention the "controversy" that one of the player's parents finds the other player attractive. Feliciano Lopez is definitely an excellent grass-court player and is unquestionably one of the most handsome players on the tour. He is in his third career Wimbledon quarterfinal, which is the furthest he has ever been in any major.  In 2011 he has already achieved a number of firsts, including having a match point against Roger Federer and defeating Andy Roddick for the first time. That being said, Murray has the hopes of a nation on his shoulders and after a surprisingly good result at this year's French Open appears to be comfortable with pressure he faces to play his best tennis in SW19. Murray has yet to lose on grass this year. He knows he could have played much better in his 2010 Wimbledon semifinal against Nadal last year and wants another chance. I think he'll get it. PREDICTION: Murray.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). This match should be the best of the 2011 Men's Quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Tsonga is a very good grass-court player, playing (but losing) a very good final against Murrayat the Queen's Club. Tsonga actually has a win against Federer (on hard courts) and has only played the Swiss Maestro 5 times so the career head-to-head deficit is not overwhelming. However, the fact that he will be playing Living History, the man who is in his 29th(!) consecutive major quarterfinal  and is trying to win this tournament for a record-tying 7th time must be daunting. Interestingly, since Tsonga had to play Grigor "Baby Fed" Dimitrov earlier in the tournament he may feel well-prepared to handle the real Federer on the big stage this time. Federer was able to dismiss Mikhail Youzhny in four sets after inexplicably dropping the first set tie-break after holding a 4-2 lead at the change over but he really didn't look comfortable to me despite the 6-7(5) 6-3 6-3 6-3 scoreline. Youzhny is a crafty veteran but he does not possess the firepower to really give Federer difficulties at crucial moments. Tsonga does. That being said Federer is aiming for his 27th major semifinal and 22nd major final. I believe that he will reach both. PREDICTION: Federer. 

Bernard Tomic AUS  vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). For the first time in 25 years one of the men's quarterfinalists is an 18-year-old, Bernard Tomic. Australians, especially his father, have been talking up Tomic's talent for years so it is impressive the youngster has matched a feat last achieve by Boris Becker. But there the similarities end. Tomic's game is like Murray 2.0 when he was 18: lots of different spins, excellent movement, full of guile and almost zero aggression.  It is not an attractive picture. Djokovic, despite only losing one match (out of 46 played!) all year long, has progressed through the draw like a ninja, silently dispatching his opponents by gliding around the court, seeming to do very little only to see the vanquished drop to the ground, defeated. He had a slight hiccup against a game Marcos Baghdatis, but one never really believed that the World's #2 was in any danger of losing. I have a very similar feeling about this match. Most likely for the second major in a row, the Top 4 players will reach the semifinals.   PREDICTION: Djokovic. 

WIMBLEDON 2011:Williamses, Top 4 Men, Delpo In To R16

Novak Djokovic won a tension-filled 3rd round
4-set match against Marcos Baghdatis

Wimbledon is the only major which does not generally have play on the "middle" Sunday. So, after Saturday's play on Day 6, here is an update.

The Top 4 players in the world, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are all through to the round of 16 at the 2011 Wimbledon Championships. World #5 Robin Soderling  and World #8 Andy Roddick have been upset. #6 seed Tomas Berdych and #7 seed David Ferrer are still in the tournament, as is 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro.


World #1 Caroline Wozniacki, #4 seed Victoria Azarenka, #5 Maria Sharapova, #7 Serena Williams, #8 Petra Kvitova and #9 Marion Bartoli are all in the round of 16. 2010 Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva and 2011 French Open finalist Francesca Schiavone both lost on Day 6.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Venus Survives 3-Hour Scare

Michael Regan/Getty 

30-year-old Venus Williams survived a stiff challenge from the crafty 40-year-old Kimiko Date-Krumm in her second round match, coming back from a 1-5 deficit in the first round to win 6-7(6) 6-3 8-6 in a nearly 3 hour slugfest with the diminutive Japanese veteran displaying amazing finesse at the net and surprising power and steadiness from the baseline. Venus saved 7 set points in the first set but still lost it after playing a very bad tie break. She won the second set by easily breaking Date-Krumm's serve and holding hers. In the third set, Venus got an early break to go up 2-0 but then relinquished the lead and the two held serve for 9 consecutive service games until Venus was able to finally break and win the match.

Overall, I think this was a very good match for Venus to get through. She was able to get into her grass court flow and her serve started clicking in the middle of the second set. Although she only converted 7 of 20 breakpoints, I'm confident she will do better in another tough match against Spanish lefty serve and volleyer Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez whose claim to fame is stealing a point against Venus' sister Serena Williams at Wimbledon in 2009.

Other winners on Day 3 were Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Andy Roddick, Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils and Mardy Fish. On the women's side, Vera Zzonareva, Victoria Azarenka, Petra Kvitova, Daniela Hantuchova and Andrea Petkovic are all through to the 3rd round.

WIMBLEDON 2011: The Odds Of Winning

The oddsmakers have Roger Federer and Serena Williams as the favorites to win this year's Singles Championships at Wimbledon, which started today.

Hat/tip to Busted Racquet.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Venus, Rafa, Vera, Schiavone Win 1st Round

Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP

Venus Williams  was the first on on Court 3 and finished her first round match 6-3 6-1 before the rain came and suspended all play on all the courts but Centre Court. Before that happened, Rafael Nadal 2008 and 2010 Wimbledon champion dismissed American Michael Russell 6-4 6-2 6-2.

With the roof down 2011 French Open finalist Francesca Schiavone was able to pull through a first-round win over Jelena Dokic 6-4 1-6 6-3. Last year's Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva won her first round match over talented American youngster Alison Riske 6-0 3-6 6-3.


All eyes are on tomorrow's repeat clash between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut, who last year played the longest match of all time in the 1st round of Wimbledon, the most memorable match of the year.

Other first round winners were 2010 Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, Richard Gasquet, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Stanislas Wawrinka. 

WIMBLEDON 2011: Seeds Released (Serena #7, Clijsters Out)

Wimbledon starts on Monday, so the seedings have been released today, with the draw happening on Friday. The grass-court tournament is the only major to often drastically differ from the world rankings, and they have done so again.

Here are the men's singles seeds:

Gentlemen's Singles

1 Rafael NADAL (ESP) [1]
2 Novak DJOKOVIC (SRB) [2]
3 Roger FEDERER (SUI) [3]
4 Andy MURRAY (GBR) [4]
5 Robin SODERLING (SWE) [5]
6 Tomas BERDYCH (CZE) [6]
7 David FERRER (ESP) [7]
8 Andy RODDICK (USA) [8]
9 Gael MONFILS (FRA) [9]
10 Mardy FISH (USA) [10]
11 Jurgen MELZER (AUT) [11]
12 Jo-Wilfried TSONGA (FRA) [12]
13 Viktor TROICKI (SRB) [13]
14 Stanislas WAWRINKA (SUI) [14]
15 Gilles SIMON (FRA) [15]
16 Nicolas ALMAGRO (ESP) [16]
17 Richard GASQUET (FRA) [17]
18 Mikhail YOUZHNY (RUS) [18]
19 Michael LLODRA (FRA) [19]
20 Florian MAYER (GER) [20]
21 Fernando VERDASCO (ESP) [21]
22 Alexandr DOLGOPOLOV (UKR) [22]
23 Janko TIPSAREVIC (SRB) [23]
24 Juan Martin DEL POTRO (ARG) [24]
25 Juan Ignacio CHELA (ARG) [25]
26 Guillermo GARCIA-LOPEZ (ESP) [26]
27 Marin CILIC (CRO) [27]
28 David NALBANDIAN (ARG) [28]
29 Nikolay DAVYDENKO (RUS) [29]
30 Thomaz BELLUCCI (BRA) [30]
31 Milos RAONIC (CAN) [31]
32 Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP) [32]

The main beneficiaries are Tsonga who moves from ATP #19 ranking to Seed #12 and Llodra who moves from ATP #25 ranking to Seed #19.

The women's singles seeds are even more interesting 

1 Caroline WOZNIACKI (DEN) [1]
2. Vera ZVONAREVA (RUS) [2]

3. Na LI (CHN) [3]
4. Victoria AZARENKA (BLR) [4]
5. Maria SHARAPOVA (RUS) [5]
6. Francesca SCHIAVONE (ITA) [6]
7. Serena WILLIAMS (USA) [7]
8. Petra KVITOVA (CZE) [8]
9. Marion BARTOLI (FRA) [9]
10. Samantha STOSUR (AUS) [10]
11. Andrea PETKOVIC (GER) [11]
12. Svetlana KUZNETSOVA (RUS) [12]
13. Agnieszka RADWANSKA (POL) [13]
14. Anastasia PAVLYUCHENKOVA (RUS) [14]
15. Jelena JANKOVIC (SRB) [15]
16. Julia GOERGES (GER) [16]
17. Kaia KANEPI (EST) [17]
18. Ana IVANOVIC (SRB) [18]
19. Yanina WICKMAYER (BEL) [19]
20. Shuai PENG (CHN) [20]
21. Flavia PENNETTA (ITA) [21]
22. Shahar PEER (ISR) [22]
23. Venus WILLIAMS (USA) [23]
24. Dominika CIBULKOVA (SVK) [24]
25. Daniela HANTUCHOVA (SVK) [25]
26. Maria KIRILENKO (RUS) [26]
27. Jarmila GAJDOSOVA (AUS) [27]
28. Ekaterina MAKAROVA (RUS) [28]
29. Roberta VINCI (ITA) [29]
30. Bethanie MATTEK-SANDS (USA) [30]
31. Lucie SAFAROVA (CZE) [31]
32. Tsvetana PIRONKOVA (BUL) [32]

The shocker is the removal of Kim Clijsters, who withdrew from the tournament with a re-injured ankle this morning. The 2010 defending champion Serena was seeded #8 but moved up to #7, despite her WTA #26 ranking. Venus, who is a 5-time champion was seeded #23 despite her WTA #33 ranking. This is an absolute travesty of a seeding for Venus. One year ago Serena was ranked #1 in the world and Venus was ranked #2 but the two have played only a handful of tournaments combined since then (Serena hasn't played at all).

Tsonga Upsets Nadal On Grass At Queens

Fresh off winning his 6th French Open title on Sunday, Rafael Nadal went to London on Monday and played in the Queen's Club tournament which is a warm-up for Wimbledon which starts on June 20th. Like last year, Nadal lost in the quarterfinals to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-7(3) 6-4 6-1. Tsonga will play British qualifier James Ward while Andy Roddick will play Andy Murray in the other semifinal. So, presumably Tsonga will face Andy in the final. Tsonga has never done well at Wimbledon but perhaps this breakthrough could signal a change for the better.

Nadal won the 2010 Wimbledon final over Tomas Berdych in straight sets 6-3 7-5 6-4, after Berdych eliminated 2009 champion Roger Federer in the quarterfinals.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview

FFT

Roger Federer SUI (3) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (1). For the 25th time, the Spanish lefty and the Swiss righty who have dominated men's tennis for the last 7 years will meet in an ATP tour match, with Nadal maintaining a 2:1 winning ratio, 16-8. The two have met in 7 major finals (3 in Paris, 3 in London and 1 in Melbourne) so far, with Nadal leading 5-2 (only losing the 2006 Wimbledon and 2007 Wimbledon finals). The vast majority of their meetings have occurred in championship matches, often when the two were ranked #1 and #2 in the world. In these 18 finals, Nadal leads 12-6, and 9-2 in the clay court finals.


Federer won one of his best clay court matches ever on Friday when he ended Novak Djokovic's undefeated year with a 7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 7-6(5) victory. He served astonishingly well, with 65% first serves in and 18 aces (including one on match point) compared to a mere 2 double faults. Federer defended well, gliding around the court as if he was not a father of nearly 2-year-old twin girls and strongly hitting his topspin backhand down the line and knifing the backhand slice.


The perplexing problem is that the match up between Nadal's game on clay and Federer's game greatly favors the Spaniard. Nadal's topspin forehand jumps up high to Federer's backhand side, making it difficult for Federer to defend that side. Although Federer's forehand cross-court outmatches Nadal's backhand cross-court it is often very difficult for the Swiss player to win points that way due to Nadal's ferocious defensive skills. The two wins on clay that Federer has in his career over "The King of Clay" arguably came when Nadal was not at his best physically (2009 Madrid) or a court on which Federer was incredibly confident (2007 Hamburg). The last time they played the final in 2008, Nadal mercilessly pummeled the Swiss player, relegating him to a mere 4 games in a 3-set match, 6-1 6-3 6-0.


I do think that the match tomorrow will be their closest Roland Garros contest, maybe even a 4-set or 5-set affair, but in the end Nadal's 43-1 dominance on the court will prevail, allowing the World #1 to tie Borg's record of 6 clay court majors.


PREDICTION: Nadal.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Federer ENDS Djokovic's Streak; Faces Nadal In Final

On Rafael Nadal's 25th birthday, Roger Federer pulled off one of the most unexpected and impressive victories of his already storied career by defeating the hottest player on tour this year, Novak Djokovic, in a historic, thrilling 7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 7-6(5) match which last 3 hours, 39 minutes.

Federer ended Djokovic's winning streak this year at 41 (or 42 matches, if you count his quarterfinal walk-over over Fabio Fognini), also denying the 24-year-old Serbian the World #1 ranking. Federer had been the last person to beat Djokovic in November 2010 before the streak which garnered him 7 titles this year (1 major and 4 Masters shields) started. The Swiss Great reached the 23rd major final of his career, his 5th at Roland Garros, where he will play 5-time champion Rafael Nadal who leads him 5-2 in major finals and 3-0 in Paris finals. As expected, Nadal easily dismissed World #4 Andy Murray in straight sets 6-4 7-5 6-4 to reach his 12th major final, 6th at Roland Garros. Federer improved to a career 14-9 head-to-head over Djokovic.

On Sunday, Nadal will be playing to match Bjorn Borg's haul of 6 French Open titles and retain his World #1 ranking, while Federer will be playing to extend his career total to 17 major singles titles, 3 more than Peter Sampras' 14. Nadal has beaten Federer twice this year already and leads their career head-to-head 16-8 and 11-2 on clay. If Nadal loses, Djokovic will become World #1 on Monday.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at Roland Garros for 2011. This year, I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals,  3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 3 men's quarterfinals. Last year I was correct in 2 of 2 2010 French Open men's semifinal predictions.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). The 5-time defending champion played his best tennis of the tournament against the only man who has ever beaten him at Roland Garros, Robin Soderling, in the quarterfinals, dismissing the Swede in straight sets 6-4 6-1 7-6(3). Nadal now has a 43-1 lifetime record on the clay courts in Paris, an astonishing 97.7% winning percentage. For that reason alone, one must consider him the favorite in his semifinal with Andy Murray.

Murray looked good in his 7-6(2) 7-5 6-2 against Juan Ignacio Chela in the quarterfinals after surviving a near-death experience in his 5-set tussle with Viktor Troicki in the Round of 16. Head-to-head Nadal leads Murray 10-4 in the career matches, 3-2 in majors, and 3-0 on clay. Murray won a set when they played in Monaco this year and served for the match against Novak Djokovic in the Rome semifinals so his clay bona fides are legitimate. All that being said, Murray has almost no chance to win this match on Friday unless he plays the match of his life (which he has found it difficult to do on the big stage of  the 3 major finals he's been in to date as well as the 2010 Wimbledon semifinal) and Nadal plays some of his worst tennis. Nadal is playing to reach his 6th final at Roland Garros in order to try and match Bjorn Borg's all-time record, and Murray is trying to reach his 1st final in Paris. The difference is clear. PREDICTION: Nadal. 

Roger Federer SUI (3) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). "The best player of today against the best player in history," says World #1 Rafael Nadal. This will be the most mouth-wateringly epic major semifinal since the last mouth-wateringly epic major semifinal these two played at the 2011Australian Open and the one before that at the 2010 US Open where Federer had two match points and lost. There's no question that there is a lot of history on the line, but this time it is mostly on the shoulders of the 24-year-old, not the 29-year-old holder of 16-major singles titles. First, there's the amazing winning streak of 41 matches won in a row in 2011 (I think counting the two Davis Cup matches he won at the end of the year when you don't get prize money or ranking points for those wins is simply silly). If Djokovic wins on Friday he will equal John McEnroe's open era record of the best ever start to a tennis season. Second, the World #1 ranking is in play and for the first time since 2004 someone other than Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer could reach the top spot. Becoming #1 is always a momentous point in any great player's career, and this achievement would be one he has had to wait for, for a long, long time.

Third, Djokovic is trying to reach his first ever non-hard court major final, to prove that he is really an all-surfaces player. Djokovic reached this point through a walkover when handsome trickster Fabio Fognini withdrew. Federer reached his record 26th major semifinal in the last 7 years by dismissing a still-improving Gael Monfils in front of a rowdy Parisian crowd 6-4 6-3 7-6(3). Federer is in the unusual position of trying to be the spoiler, but he appears to be relishing the challenge. Federer has a 13-9 career head-to-head edge over Djokovic, including 2-1 on clay but a scant 4-3 in majors. However, the Swiss Great is playing some of his best tennis this year and has not dropped a set. He is also the last person to have beaten Novak Djokovic in an ATP Tour match, on Saturday November 27, 2010, exactly 188 days ago. That streak will last a little longer. PREDICTION:  Djokovic

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Fabio Fognini won his marathon 4th round match to a chorus of boos and cheers and
then withdrew from the tournament prior to playing the biggest match of his career.

(Photo credit:  Benoit Tessier, REUTERS)

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2011 French Open. Last year, I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Robin Soderling SWE (5). The dream quarterfinal. Rafael Nadal has only ever lost one match at Roland Garros, and it was to his quarterfinal opponent, the World #5 tall, muscular Swede Robin Soderling. He defeated the 4-time defending champion in 2009, in one of the greatest upsets in sports of the last decade; Soderling followed up that upset by repeating it the following year by beating the defending champion Roger Federer in the quarterfinals to end Federer's incredible streak of 23 consecutive Grand Slam semifinals. Nadal does not appear to be playing his best tennis this year but still must be considered the favorite considering his overall clay court record. However, Nadal's confidence must  be shaken by his two recent losses to Djokovic in two clay court Masters finals this season. Soderling does not lack confidence, and if he plays his best tennis against Nadal's not-best tennis, he will repeat his 2009 result. If Nadal plays at his 2010 level, then the defending champion should get through and possibly win a 6th Roland Garros title, tying Bjorn Borg's record. PREDICTION: Soderling in 4 sets.  

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Juan Ignacio Chela ARG. Andy Murray's dream draw turned into a nightmare during his 3rd round victory over a lefty qualifier Michael Berrer when he badly twisted his ankle in a 3-set win. He started his next round gingerly, losing the first 5 games of his 4th round match with Serbian Viktor Troicki. The World #4 came within one point of drawing even in the first set but ultimately ended up losing the first two sets 6-4 6-4. However, his movement and attitude visibly improved  and he was able to force a fifth and deciding set before darkness fell. I presume he will be able to win the deciding fifth set when play resumes on Tuesday and should have no problem dismissing the 31-year-old Argentine clay court specialist playing in his 3rd career major quarterfinal on Thursday. PREDICTION: Murray in 3 sets. 

Gael Monfils FRA (9) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). Federer continues to write his name in the tennis record books by reaching his 28th consecutive major quarterfinal with an efficient dispatch of countryman Stanislas Wawrinka in the 4th round. While Djokovic is winning universal acclaim and attention by continuing his flawless 2011 season, Federer continues to demonstrate why he has been at the upper echelon of men's tennis for the last seven consecutive years. There are few players in the Top 10 who have even played 28 consecutive major tournaments, and Federer has been in the last 8 or better in 28 consecutive major tournaments. His opponent is the Pride of France, "La Monf" who is in his 3rd quarterfinal at Roland Garros in 4 years. Unfortunately for the Frenchman, he has never won a match on clay against Federer. In fact, last fall in front of a Paris crowd, Monfils won his first match ever (in 6 tries) against the Swiss Great when he saved an incredible 5 match points and went on to win one of the best matches of the year in three tiebreak sets. However, getting through a tough 5-set against the always hard-to-beat David Ferrer in the 4th round was another indicator that the excessively talented, prodigiously athletic Monfils' results may start matching his potential. Federer is yet to lose a set in his 2011 appearance at Roland Garros, and while I expect that streak to end, I also expect he will again find a way to yet another major semifinal and a historic showdown with Novak Djokovic. PREDICTION:  Federer in 4 sets.

Fabio Fognini ITA vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). The quarterfinal that wasn't. The puckishly handsome Italian showed he was more than just a pretty face by outlasting clay court specialist Albert Montanes 11-9 in the fifth set despite being unable to move due to suffering a muscle tear (or cramps?) in his leg at 5-6, 15-30. Fognini basically started blasting winners into all the corners on the court to erase 5 match points and controversially emerged with the win. However, he knew that he would have no chance against the red-hot Serbian who has yet to lose  a match in 2011 and thus withdrew (on advice of his doctors, who confirmed a 1cm muscle tear via MRI). This is both good news and bad news for Djokovic. It means that he is at least one round further in the tournament than he was last year, which is good news for his campaign to become World #1. He just needs to win one more match to reach his first French Open final and he will attain this goal of being acknowledged (by the computer) as the #1 player in the world. All Djokovic has to do is either beat 16-time major champion Roger Federer or hometown favorite Gael Monfils coming off the biggest win of his career in the semifinals on Friday. Getting to this point via walkover is bad news for Djokovic because he doesn't get credit for the win, so his streak remains at 41-0 for 2011 and that means he can only break John McEnroe's 1984 streak of 42-0 by winning the entire tournament. Plus it means he has a bizarre 4-day break in the middle of a major tournament after playing 3 consecutive days. It will be interesting to see what, if any, these factors have on Djokovic's play in the semifinal. I suspect nothing will deny Djokovic's date with destiny.