2011 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Fabio Fognini won his marathon 4th round match to a chorus of boos and cheers and
then withdrew from the tournament prior to playing the biggest match of his career.

(Photo credit:  Benoit Tessier, REUTERS)

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2011 French Open. Last year, I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Robin Soderling SWE (5). The dream quarterfinal. Rafael Nadal has only ever lost one match at Roland Garros, and it was to his quarterfinal opponent, the World #5 tall, muscular Swede Robin Soderling. He defeated the 4-time defending champion in 2009, in one of the greatest upsets in sports of the last decade; Soderling followed up that upset by repeating it the following year by beating the defending champion Roger Federer in the quarterfinals to end Federer's incredible streak of 23 consecutive Grand Slam semifinals. Nadal does not appear to be playing his best tennis this year but still must be considered the favorite considering his overall clay court record. However, Nadal's confidence must  be shaken by his two recent losses to Djokovic in two clay court Masters finals this season. Soderling does not lack confidence, and if he plays his best tennis against Nadal's not-best tennis, he will repeat his 2009 result. If Nadal plays at his 2010 level, then the defending champion should get through and possibly win a 6th Roland Garros title, tying Bjorn Borg's record. PREDICTION: Soderling in 4 sets.  

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Juan Ignacio Chela ARG. Andy Murray's dream draw turned into a nightmare during his 3rd round victory over a lefty qualifier Michael Berrer when he badly twisted his ankle in a 3-set win. He started his next round gingerly, losing the first 5 games of his 4th round match with Serbian Viktor Troicki. The World #4 came within one point of drawing even in the first set but ultimately ended up losing the first two sets 6-4 6-4. However, his movement and attitude visibly improved  and he was able to force a fifth and deciding set before darkness fell. I presume he will be able to win the deciding fifth set when play resumes on Tuesday and should have no problem dismissing the 31-year-old Argentine clay court specialist playing in his 3rd career major quarterfinal on Thursday. PREDICTION: Murray in 3 sets. 

Gael Monfils FRA (9) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). Federer continues to write his name in the tennis record books by reaching his 28th consecutive major quarterfinal with an efficient dispatch of countryman Stanislas Wawrinka in the 4th round. While Djokovic is winning universal acclaim and attention by continuing his flawless 2011 season, Federer continues to demonstrate why he has been at the upper echelon of men's tennis for the last seven consecutive years. There are few players in the Top 10 who have even played 28 consecutive major tournaments, and Federer has been in the last 8 or better in 28 consecutive major tournaments. His opponent is the Pride of France, "La Monf" who is in his 3rd quarterfinal at Roland Garros in 4 years. Unfortunately for the Frenchman, he has never won a match on clay against Federer. In fact, last fall in front of a Paris crowd, Monfils won his first match ever (in 6 tries) against the Swiss Great when he saved an incredible 5 match points and went on to win one of the best matches of the year in three tiebreak sets. However, getting through a tough 5-set against the always hard-to-beat David Ferrer in the 4th round was another indicator that the excessively talented, prodigiously athletic Monfils' results may start matching his potential. Federer is yet to lose a set in his 2011 appearance at Roland Garros, and while I expect that streak to end, I also expect he will again find a way to yet another major semifinal and a historic showdown with Novak Djokovic. PREDICTION:  Federer in 4 sets.

Fabio Fognini ITA vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). The quarterfinal that wasn't. The puckishly handsome Italian showed he was more than just a pretty face by outlasting clay court specialist Albert Montanes 11-9 in the fifth set despite being unable to move due to suffering a muscle tear (or cramps?) in his leg at 5-6, 15-30. Fognini basically started blasting winners into all the corners on the court to erase 5 match points and controversially emerged with the win. However, he knew that he would have no chance against the red-hot Serbian who has yet to lose  a match in 2011 and thus withdrew (on advice of his doctors, who confirmed a 1cm muscle tear via MRI). This is both good news and bad news for Djokovic. It means that he is at least one round further in the tournament than he was last year, which is good news for his campaign to become World #1. He just needs to win one more match to reach his first French Open final and he will attain this goal of being acknowledged (by the computer) as the #1 player in the world. All Djokovic has to do is either beat 16-time major champion Roger Federer or hometown favorite Gael Monfils coming off the biggest win of his career in the semifinals on Friday. Getting to this point via walkover is bad news for Djokovic because he doesn't get credit for the win, so his streak remains at 41-0 for 2011 and that means he can only break John McEnroe's 1984 streak of 42-0 by winning the entire tournament. Plus it means he has a bizarre 4-day break in the middle of a major tournament after playing 3 consecutive days. It will be interesting to see what, if any, these factors have on Djokovic's play in the semifinal. I suspect nothing will deny Djokovic's date with destiny.

Nadal Beats Ferrer (Again) To Win 6th Barcelona Title

World #1 Rafael Nadal beat fellow Spaniard David Ferrer 6-2 6-4 in their second consecutive final to win his 6th Barcelona Open clay-court title, becoming the first player to win more than one title more than 6 times. (Last week, Nadal won his 7th consecutive Monte Carlo title.)

It was Nadal's 45th career ATP Tour title. He has not lost on clay since May 31 2009 at Roland Garros.

Nadal Wins 500th; Faces Ferrer in Barcelona Final

Rafael Nadal won his 500th ATP tour match on Saturday, setting up another showdown again with his countryman and good friend David Ferrer in the finals of the clay court tournament in Barcelona, Spain. Last week, Nadal beat Ferrer to win his record 7th consecutive title in Monaco. Nadal has won 28 straight matches in Barcelona as well, having won 5 consecutive titles here from 2005 through 2009 (and missing last year's event due to injury). He beat Ferrer in the 2008 and 2009 finals.

Nadal Becomes 1st To Win Tennis Title 7 Years In A Row

Rafael Nadal made history on Sunday by becoming the first tennis player to win a title (the Monte Carlo Masters) an incredible seven times in a row after beating David Ferrer 7-5 6-4. Roger Federer has won multiple titles (the US Open 2004-2008, Wimbledon 2003-2007) fives years in a row but no modern player has won a title even six times in a row, a feat Nadal accomplished last year in Monte Carlo.

Nadal swept every single clay tournament he played last year, including Roland Garros. He has now won 37 clay court matches in a row. Monte Carlo was also his 19th ATP Masters title, which is two more than Andre Agassi and Federer have.

Nadal Beat Murray; Faces Ferrer In Monte Carlo Final

Rafael Nadal outlasted Andy Murray 6-4 2-6 6-1 to reach his seventh consecutive Monte Carlo final, while David Ferrer demolished Jurgen Melzer 6-3 6-2 to set up an all-Spanish final. The Nadal-Murray clash lasted nearly 3 hours and featured the first set Nadal had lost in Monte Carlo since 2009. He has now won 36th consecutive matches there dating back to 2004. Last year, Nadal embarrassed fellow Spaniard Fernando Verasco 6-0 6-1 to win the tournament for the 6th consecutive time.

Federer Loses To Melzer; Nadal v Murray Semifinal Set

Roger Federer had a rare loss at the quarterfinal stage of a tournament today against left-handed Austrian Jurgen Melzer 6-4 6-4 on a windy day at the Monaco Masters. Melzer has now defeated Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic in his career. This was the first time the World #9 had beaten the current World #3 and the first time Federer had lost to someone other than Nadal or Djokovic since his November nailbiter loss to Gael Monfils after holding 5 match points. Melzer will face Spaniard David Ferrer in the semifinal.

In the other half of the draw, Nadal will face Andy Murray in the semifinal in his quest to win his 7th(!) consecutive Monaco title.

Celebrity Friday: Mardy Fish, Highest Ranked American Player

Mardy Fish, Andy Roddick's childhood friend, has overtaken his buddy as the highest ranked American male player on the ATP Tour by reaching the semifinals of the Sony Ericsson Open, defeating David Ferrer 7-5 6-2. Fish's defeat of Ferrer followed a breath-taking 7-5 7-6(5) win over 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro in the 4th round.

Fish could meet Novak Djokovic if the Serbian can extend his winning streak to 23 games for 2011 by defeating Kevin Anderson. In the other half of the draw, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal could meet for the first time on American soil in over 4 years, if both win matches against Gilles Simon and Tomas Berdych, respectively.

AUS OPEN 2011: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the 2011 Australian Open men's semifinals. I had previously correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. You can also see my predictions for the women's semifinals and women's quarterfinals (3 of 4 right).

Rafael Nadal ESP (1)  David Ferrer ESP (7) vs. Andy Murray GBR (5). Everyone expected a Murray-Nadal semifinal, and many many tennis fans were salivating at the prospect of seeing a match of the same caliber as their superlative ATP World Tour Championships semifinal in London. Murray did his piece first, by dispatching the extremely talented Aleksandr Dolgopolov of Ukraine who had eliminated Robin Soderling and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 5-set matches by coming from behind to win those contests. Dolgopolov plays in an unorthodox fashion, with quick, whip-like strokes, but this generates tremendous (and surprising) power on both wings; he also has a truly unusual serve which allows him to get several free points, even from someone as good at returning serve as Andy Murray. In the first set the younger player had 12 aces to Murray's two and was hitting winners into both corners of the court. Essentially, he was "out-Murraying" Murray. Unfortunately for Dolgopolov his quirky style is sometimes combined with an almost laissez-faire approach to finishing a point which resulted in errors instead of winners on balls that MadProfessah could have put away. These lapses enabled Murray to eke out the first set 7-5 (after blowing a 4-1 lead). The second set featured tremendous serving from Murray, losing only two points on his serve for a 6-3 win. The third set Murray should have closed out the match, but Dogopolov was able to climb back to win the 3rd in a tiebreaker 7-3 after horrendous play by Murray in the decider. The final set was never much in doubt with Murray winning the first fourteen points and the Dogopolov errors accumulating until he was at a total of 77 for the match compared to a showy 57 winners. Murray had a more sedate 33 winners and 34 errors and won the final set 6-3. The drama of the Murray-Dolgopolov quarterfinal was quickly eclipsed when the two Spaniards took the court. After a quick service hold by Ferrer to start the match, Nadal's first service game lasted 17 minutes and consisted of 22 points with 7 deuces. Ferrer was playing very aggressively, especially with his forehand and service return; he was running down shots which would have been winners against almost anyone else. Eventually Ferrer was able to get the break, which he then immediately gave back through strong play by Nadal. On the changeover it became clear something was very wrong with Nadal, and he left the court to  take an injury time out and receive treatment. It looked very much like he would retire at various points in the first set after that. Amazingly he had retired in a math played exactly a year before, in the men's quarterfinal of 2010 against Murray, also played on Australia Day, January 26. However, Nadal soldiered on and Ferrer continued his style of aggressive play, taking advantage of Nadal's clearly limited movement to his forehand side (Nadal's left thigh was heavily strapped) and maintained his composure to complete the stunning 6-4 6-2 6-3 straight sets win over the defending Roland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open champion. Rafa's quest to be the first man in a generation (or two) to simultaneously hold all 4 major titles was over. The reason I have spent so much time reviewing the quarterfinal matches instead of previewing the semifinal match is because there is not much to say. Head-to-head Ferrer and Murray have met 5 times, (never in a Grand Slam) with Murray winning all their hard court matches relatively easily and Ferrer winning the clay court matches. Murray was able to reach the final last year, and he is playing even better one year later. Ferrer is also playing better, but, barring an injury, the result of their next hard court match will not be any different from the other three they have played before. PREDICTION: Murray in 4 sets. 

Roger Federer SUI (2). vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). This semifinal match-up is a reprise of the four celebrated grand slam semifinals these two have competed: the 2010 US Open semifinal won by Djokovic after saving two match points in the 5th set; the 2009 US Open semifinal won by Federer which featured the amazing tweener shot by the Swiss great on the penultimate point of the match; the 2008 US Open semifinal won in straight sets by Federer despite trailing in the first two; and the 2008 Australian Open semifinal won by Djokovic on his way to winning his first major title.  So, despite Federer's impressive 13-6 head-to-head edge overall, the two have actually split the four hard-court major semifinals they have played in their careers. Bizarrely, they have never played at Wimbledon or at Roland Garros. It should be noted that Federer has won the last three times they have played, and has apparently taken energy from his defeat in New York last year. Djokovic is also playing inspired tennis, having achieved one of his career goals by anchoring his country to a Davis Cup title (something Federer has not done despite having someone as talented as Stan Wawrinka on his team). Of the four players left remaining in the tournament, Djokovic and Murray have both only dropped one tie-break set each. Djokovic in particular has looked the most impressive, taking out the #6 (Tomas Berdych), #14(Nicolas Almagro) and #29 seeds. 
The highest seed that Federer has had to face was Wawrinka at #19 but Gilles Simon in the first round was playing like a Top 10 player when he stretched the World #2 to 5 sets. To determine my pick, I'm going to try an do some math. There are three possibilities, which I will assume are equally likely to occur (3-set, 4-set and 5-set match with 33% probabilities). If only 3 sets of tennis are played I give Federer a 25-8 edge. In a 4-set match I give Djokovic a 17-16 edge. In a 5-set match I give Djokovic a 25-8 edge. So overall, Djokovic has a 50-49 edge. I split the last point equally and this gets Djokovic slightly ahead to reach his second Australian Open final, and second consecutive major final.  PREDICTION: Djokovic (has a 50.5% chance to win). 

AUS OPEN 2011: Nadal Eliminated By Ferrer!

World #1 Rafael Nadal's quest for the "Rafa slam" is over; he was bounced from the 2011 Australian Open by David Ferrer 6-4 6-2 6-3 in the men's quarterfinals exactly one year to the day he retired from the 2010 Australian Open against Andy Murray.

During Nadal's first service game, which lasted 17 minutes and consisted of 22 points, Nadal injured himself (on the way to being broken) and although he broke back immediately he called for the trainer and left the court at 1-2.

Remaining in the tournament are defending champion Roger Federer who faces 2010 US Open finalist Novak Djokovic on Thursday and 2010 Australian Open finalist Andy Murray who will face Ferrer on Friday.